Sportrac predicts Tua contract will be for $220 million

by finfanatic Thu Feb 29, 2024 10:46 am

Spotrac’s Michael Ginnitti recently put together projections for quarterback extensions that could happen this offseason, and he projects that the Dolphins will give Tagovailoa a four-year extension worth $220 million with $105 million guaranteed at signing.

While the numbers may be eye-popping, that’s what the quarterback market has turned into.

Looking at Over the Cap, $220 million in total value would be 10th for quarterbacks if signed right now. The $105 million in full guarantees would be the seventh-most at the position. That money is only going to go up, as Ginnitti projects Dak Prescott to get $60 million annually.

Wow is all I can say.

I was expecting five years but four with $110 mill guaranteed!

Of course this is just one guys opinion.

This is what the NFL's liberalized rules for passing offense have done to the sport IMO.

And as I said earlier... If you don't have a Tua as your QB, most of those QB hungry teams would LOVE a deal like this!

by **JMP** Thu Feb 29, 2024 11:35 am

$105 million in guaranteed money is extremely low for top-level QBs. I'd actually be shocked (pleasantly) if the number turns out to be that low. I'd be VERY VERY happy with that deal, but I think there's zero chance of that being the number.

--Burrow (who is always hurt) got $219 million guaranteed.
--Herbert (who has a career losing record) got just under $219 million guaranteed.
--Hurts (whose teammates recently said he's not a leader) got $180 million guaranteed.
--And of course, Watson (who sucks and is always hurt) got $230 million guaranteed.

Tua has a higher winning percentage than Burrow, Herbert and Watson, and almost the same as Hurts.

by finfanatic Thu Feb 29, 2024 12:52 pm

JMP, I guess I should have clarified.

The WOW was for the $110 mill for 4 years. I had heard Tua and his repos wanted 35 mill per guaranteed... which is closer to what Tua will get IMO.

I say it will average out to between 30-35 mill per year on guaranteed money and will be for five years. With probably a big pile of salary in the final or final two years to make it look like Tua is going to get close to 50-55 mill per year on the contract.

I sincerely hope the Phins Dufus in charge of negotiating doesn't start haggling over the amount of upfront money like he did with Wilkins last year. Trying to save Ross a few millions at the expense of the team's long term future means Shore is either mucho dumbasso or something more sinister like he is getting a percentage of the amount he saves Ross!!

Evil or Very Mad

And yes... I am half joking there, but it has to be something just as asinine IMHO. Signing Wilkins last year would have made entirely too much sense to any team for the deal to not get done.

by **JMP** Thu Feb 29, 2024 2:23 pm

finfanatic wrote:
The WOW was for the $110 mill for 4 years. I had heard Tua and his repos wanted 35 mill per guaranteed... which is closer to what Tua will get IMO.

I say it will average out to between 30-35 mill per year on guaranteed money and will be for five years. With probably a big pile of salary in the final or final two years to make it look like Tua is going to get close to 50-55 mill per year on the contract.

Yep. I'm in the same ballpark, but a little higher. I expect 5-year deal with a total contract value of between $55-60 million per year. Probably about $40 million per on guaranteed money.

As for Wilkins, it's easy to say we should have extended his contract a year ago, but from everything I've heard he didn't want to do that. He chose to bet on himself to have a big season and get an even bigger contract - and that's exactly what happened. I think we will likely have better luck trying to extend Waddle, Phillips and/or Holland this season - and we'll have the cap space to do so in June after Howard's release is on the books.

Shore has done a fantastic job with contracts - I have zero complaints about the deals he's done.

by Umix10 Thu Feb 29, 2024 9:35 pm

I wouldn't pay that much. I don't think Miami should pay him even close to top 10 money. He had 1 healthy year. Although a very good year but again. Not enough of a sample size for me. And I root for the guy from Hawaii.

by **JMP** Fri Mar 01, 2024 9:06 am

Umix10 wrote:I wouldn't pay that much. I don't think Miami should pay him even close to top 10 money. He had 1 healthy year. Although a very good year but again. Not enough of a sample size for me. And I root for the guy from Hawaii.

In an ideal world, I'd agree 1000%. But the way the league is now, you just can't screw around when you have a good QB - because you never know if/when you'll get another one.

And as I pointed out, Burrow, Herbert and Hurts all got their new deals - and Tua has outperformed all of them in many categories. Most notably, again he has played more games than Burrow and has a much higher win percentage than Burrow and Herbert. There's no way to justify giving Tua significantly less than those guys, unless for some reason he'd be willing to take a below-market deal. And when he has another big season, the contract value will only increase - so better to lock him out now.

IMO Tua is a top 5 QB right now, and there's no easy way for the Dolphins to get someone better - especially if they continue to pick at the bottom of round one. I think it' a no brainer - you have to extend him, and based on the market Tua's value is right near the top.

by mercury22nathan Fri Mar 01, 2024 10:25 am

JMP wrote:I expect 5-year deal with a total contract value of between $55-60 million per year.

i think you're getting close. i think it may be nearer to that upper end of ~$60M (and perhaps a million or two beyond that). apparently the sides had some loose agreement on the dollar parameters, but then the cap surprisingly increased more than was expected and Tua's representation said, "Hmm, wait a minute, not so fast."

The Dolphins have been discussing the terms of a contract extension with representatives for quarterback Tua Tagovailoa since the 2023 season ended.

“You try and work through it,” Grier said of contract talks. “You have rational discussions with people and his representation are really good people. We’ve had great conversations. At the end of the day, what he’s looking for in terms of because of the money went up, does that drive the salary up? I don’t know. You’d have to ask him.”

https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/nfl/miami-dolphins/article286046011.html

Miami has apparently told Wilkins agent they can't finalize his deal until Tua's is done due to the cap space it will provide. Tua's agents know this and are using the FA tag deadline as leverage to force Miami to come to an agreement (so Miami doesn't have to resort to tagging Wilkins). hence why Grier has been publicly saying that all options are on the table, even the tag, to try and minimize Tua's agent's leverage.

in the end, i think Tua will get a healthy deal cause Miami needs the immediate cap relief and what alternative does it have? let Tua play under his 5th year and they most likely can not afford Wilkins - or maybe just Wilkins and nothing else. and even without the cap relief issue, Tua is good, very good and most likely will be statistically elite in the current offensive system (if not actually carry-the-team-on-your-back elite). and it certainly beats starting FA journeymen (no offense Ryan Fitzpatrick) until they can luck into someone in the draft. and even with a 4 or 5 year Tua deal, Miami should (will?) still draft another QB 2 to 3 years from now anyways.

by finfanatic Fri Mar 01, 2024 12:01 pm

I agree with JMP and Merc.

And I agree with Umix. Tua probably ain't worth $50 mill and nowhere close to $60 mill.

Unless you are a team that doesn't have a Tua, and why then... he's worth every penny!!

You cannot compete in the NFL without an elite level, top tier QB. Statistically, Tua is top tier. Is that the offense? Probably, but so what?

I was really hoping Miami was going to use the "You've only been been available for an entire season of your career ONCE!" and get a bargain on the guaranteed amount per season, but that looks like it has gone by the wayside. Neutral

I stand by my assertion that the failure to ink Wilkins to a long term deal last season was a HUGE, GIGANTIC MISTAKE by the Phins!

It would REALLY have removed all the franchise tag leverage Tua's agents are using to up his deal.

by DolFan 316 Fri Mar 01, 2024 2:08 pm

BTW March 13th just happens to be my birthday. I am NOT posting this for the reason you think (seriously) but just to say that this birthday's either going to be really good (the Fins keep Wilkins and AVG and somehow have way more cap room than I expected) or very bad. There is no in between. I also don't remember my birthday ever being the date when teams must be under the cap before scratch

I suppose it was inevitable that even the NFL would realize how special I am eventually Cool

by **JMP** Fri Mar 01, 2024 2:14 pm

finfanatic wrote:Tua probably ain't worth $50 mill and nowhere close to $60 mill.

I'd argue that no QB, with the lone exception of Mahomes, is worth anywhere close to $50 million. Just look at what happened after Watson, Burrow, Herbert and Hurts got their deals: major disappointment in all 4 cases.

But it's a catch-22: these guys are "good enough" to keep you from sucking and maybe they can even get you a ring if everything falls just right, and finding a franchise QB is like finding a needle in a haystack - so even though they may be flawed, you almost have no choice but to keep them and pay them accordingly.

by DolFan 316 Fri Mar 01, 2024 2:16 pm

My plan to trade Tua keeps looking better and better. Just sayin'. And you guys thought I was joking...

by mercury22nathan Fri Mar 01, 2024 2:26 pm

DolFan 316 wrote:My plan to trade Tua keeps looking better and better. Just sayin'. And you guys thought I was joking...

[regretfully scans the room] ok, i'll bight. trade for what (knowing he'll need an expensive extension will diminish his value)? when? and who would be the season starter?

by DolFan 316 Fri Mar 01, 2024 2:30 pm

https://dolfancave.forumotion.com/t3326-blockbuster-tua-trade

I know what you're thinking. There's no way Daniels or any of the Big Three drop all the way to #9. (Although the more teams see of Caleb Williams...) But seriously, wouldn't this be better than paying Tua to not win playoff games for the next 5 years or whatever? If you doubt it, just ask all the other teams who just threw a boatload of money at QBs not named Mahomes. And the demand right now for a QB is *much* higher than the current draft supply...

The more I think about it, the more it makes sense. They wouldn't even have to wait until #9, the Falcons at 8 or even the Giants at 6 might work. You think they wouldn't rather have Tua than Daniel Jones?

by mercury22nathan Fri Mar 01, 2024 2:35 pm

i'll give you props for creativity (in a very liberal sense), but if you can't guarantee me Daniels, i want no part of your devious plan.

by DolFan 316 Fri Mar 01, 2024 2:39 pm

mercury22nathan wrote:i'll give you props for creativity (in a very liberal sense), but if you can't guarantee me Daniels, i want no part of your devious plan.

What if I dangle a trade for the top pick in front of you, which would by definition guarantee Daniels? Twisted Evil

by mercury22nathan Fri Mar 01, 2024 2:41 pm

don't play with me. put up or shut up. Cool

by **JMP** Fri Mar 01, 2024 4:51 pm

Sure, trading a franchise QB for a boatload of picks would be awesome. Except for the part for where we are left with no QB. Even if we could land one of the top guys this year, I don't like any of them - except Daniels, who IMO may not be ready to start in the NFL. This Dolphins team is designed to win now...and I don't see us winning anything without a QB.

by DolFan 316 Fri Mar 01, 2024 5:19 pm

JMP wrote:Sure, trading a franchise QB for a boatload of picks would be awesome. Except for the part for where we are left with no QB. Even if we could land one of the top guys this year, I don't like any of them - except Daniels, who IMO may not be ready to start in the NFL. This Dolphins team is designed to win now...and I don't see us winning anything without a QB.

That's why Daniels is the only QB in this class I ever mention. Also, it's kinda hard for a team to win now when they're hemorrhaging talent due to severe cap mismanagement. Baker Mayfield's an option too, who knows if the Bucs will re-sign him? Even if they do he's worth trading Tua for since Mayfield at least knows how to win a playoff game. Tua for Mayfield and a second seems like a fair deal to me Cool

I know Grier will never actually consider doing this because saving his job yada yada, but we all know he's likely losing it after next season regardless. At least this way there won't be a big mess for the next GM to clean up.

For me it all comes back to one thing: if a team's not going to win a playoff game, they're better off not wrecking their cap on a QB to not do it. Are you really going to tell me the Fins are MORE likely to win a playoff game with Tua's now ginormous contract keeping them from ever signing anyone else worth a damn in FA and having to reply on the draft which 1. they usually scew up and 2. won't be able to afford to keep their good picks anyway?

by mercury22nathan Tue Mar 05, 2024 9:49 am

Now here’s an interesting article arguing against extended Tua. You’ll have to read the whole thing to really get what they are saying, but I’ll try to clip some of the highlights.

By 2023, with McDaniel’s offense proving vexing in the season’s first couple months, Tagovailoa was tormenting opposing secondaries with MOF [middle of field] throws. Tua’s 11.77 net adjusted yards per attempt on those throws led the NFL, as did his 15.1 percent completion rate over expected on MOF attempts. Only C.J. Stroud and Jared Goff — quarterbacks in systems designed by similarly-progressive play callers — had more passing yards on MOF attempts last season.

Purdy, unlike Tagovailoa, can create out of structure. When Shanahan’s lab-designed plays break down, Purdy can still make something happen, either as a rusher or throwing on the run. This is what has made Purdy such a clear upgrade over Garoppolo, who basically short circuited if a play didn’t go off just as Shanny had planned. The proof is in the numbers: Purdy last season was third in yards per attempt (8.2) when under pressure and sixth in PFF’s adjusted completion rate.

Tua, meanwhile, was 28th in yards per attempt under pressure — in line with Kenny Pickett and Aidan O’Connell — and 39th in adjusted completion rate. Only Mac Jones and Will Levis were worse. Tagovailoa was 18th out of 25 qualifying QBs in YPA on throws outside the pocket, according to Fantasy Points Data. Purdy was second, trailing only Lamar Jackson.

Relentlessly attacking opposing defenses in the short and intermediate middle parts of the field has allowed play callers — including Ben Johnson in Detroit — get the most out of quarterbacks who can generously be described as not elite. Avoiding the much-more-difficult sideline throw has been key in getting the most out of Goff and Purdy and, yes, Tagovailoa. Year after year, the game’s top passers — Mahomes, Burrow, Allen, Stafford to an extent — are worlds more efficient on sideline passes than the average QB.

If the McDaniel-era Dolphins are going to continue using the MOF cheat code in 2024 and beyond — and there’s little reason to think they won’t — the team could likely find a viable replacement for Tagovailoa in the draft or in free agency and use the saved resources to bolster a defense that will have to stop Mahomes or Burrow or Allen if these Dolphins are ever going to reach the Promised Land.

McDaniel’s offense doesn’t need an elite QB to function well. Tagovailoa, who is much closer to Garoppolo than he is to Purdy, has been proof of just that.

https://www.nbcsports.com/fantasy/football/news/should-the-dolphins-re-sign-tua-tagovailoa

So the basic argument is that Tua is a good system QB whose other limitations (outside throws and off-schedule creativity) are so limiting that he’ll never be elite. I think we all saw this highlighted by his struggles in facing good defenses (especially in the late season collapse). And that perhaps the Dolphins current system is so good at making average QBs look very good, that Miami could do just as well with a much cheaper alternative than paying Tua big money (and using those resources elsewhere to bolster the overall team).

I imagine this opinion will set of fierce opposition (and maybe find a supporter or two). Last week, I think I would have seen this possibility as outlandish, but now after seeing the decisions they made (or didn’t make) on Wilkins, I think not paying Tua (what his agent believes he is worth) may also now be in the realm of possibilities for this regime – and if the above is true, maybe that’s not a bad thing.

thoughts?

by **JMP** Tue Mar 05, 2024 10:00 am

The article loses points by labeling Tua a system QB and then comparing him to Purdy - who is the definition of system QB. How did Purdy look when he played without his stars on the OL and at WR?

Tua is, statistically, an elite QB. The numbers don't lie. Now, he has to take the next step and show that he can win playoff games - and the same can be said about other "elite" QBs like Herbert, Jackson, Lawrence, Allen, etc. Hell, even Burrow - he made it to a Super Bowl and has struggled since then.

How do we know McDaniel's offense doesn't need an elite QB to function well? Certainly, we've seen that the offense looks like crap when Tua is not there.

Absolutely, not extending Tua is a viable option. But I sure don't want to spend another couple of decades - AGAIN - looking for a franchise QB when we already have one in the building. It's probably the worst part of the NFL right now, but when you have a franchise QB you have to back up the Brinks truck to keep him. It sucks, but it sure beats the alternative of struggling through wasted year after wasted year without a QB.

by finfanatic Tue Mar 05, 2024 12:05 pm

Well, if they could get Jayden Daniels I would be all for it.

Heck, I am in the camp that thinks Drake Maye may well be Josh Allen-lite!!!

I just don't see anyway the Phins can get one of those guys.

As JMP points out - Any QB who puts up the numbers Tua has put up is in line for a big payday... from somebody!

by DolFan 316 Tue Mar 05, 2024 12:23 pm

Anotehr significant layer to the problem is that next year's QB class apparently is even WORSE than this one, which I thought was bad affraid

https://www.profootballrumors.com/2024/02/teams-are-likely-to-move-up-for-qbs-in-2024-draft

So now you're talking about being at the mercy of Tua's agent or else not being able to draft a decent QB until 2026! Hopefully by that point Tua's contract will have some sort of out. Hell, if the Broncos can release Wilson after just 2 seasons then surely this could be done as well? scratch

And remember, Tua already considered retiring once. Just sayin'.

Also, it's just so ironic that Purdy is now considered BETTER than Tua by at least some people Shocked

I know some of you didn't take me seriously when I first started raving about him but as usual I meant it all along.

JMP wrote:How do we know McDaniel's offense doesn't need an elite QB to function well? Certainly, we've seen that the offense looks like crap when Tua is not there.

Any offense would look like crap with a 7th round rookie QB not named Purdy and ~~Turdy Bilgewater~~ a guy who phoned it in and is now retired. Not exactly average QB play. Now Baker Mayfield on the other hand...

Absolutely, not extending Tua is a viable option. But I sure don't want to spend another couple of decades - AGAIN - looking for a franchise QB when we already have one in the building. It's probably the worst part of the NFL right now, but when you have a franchise QB you have to back up the Brinks truck to keep him. It sucks, but it sure beats the alternative of struggling through wasted year after wasted year without a QB.

Except that the end result with Tua has been exactly the same as all the other QBs in the parade of poseurs and palookas: no playoff wins. How much does one need to pay for no playoff wins? scratch

by mercury22nathan Tue Mar 05, 2024 1:23 pm

DolFan 316 wrote:Also, it's just so ironic that Purdy is now considered BETTER than Tua by at least some people I know some of you didn't take me seriously when I first started raving about him but as usual I meant it all along.

look at you acting like Purdy is all 4-1 in the playoffs and Tua is... well, never mind.

ok then, how about the regular season? oh. what? like 17-4 is so much better than 32-19.

lol!

by **JMP** Tue Mar 05, 2024 2:42 pm

DolFan 316 wrote:Anotehr significant layer to the problem is that next year's QB class apparently is even WORSE than this one, which I thought was bad

That is an excellent point, and definitely a big part of the equation.

DolFan 316 wrote:Except that the end result with Tua has been exactly the same as all the other QBs in the parade of poseurs and palookas: no playoff wins. How much does one need to pay for no playoff wins?

Yep, that's the rub isn't it? You're damned if you do and damned if you don't. Unfortunately, getting rid of Tua means, this season, either going with a young, unproven rookie and likely wasting Tyreek Hill and losing a ton of games and praying he becomes a star, or signing a veteran that will maybe get us 6 or 8 wins. And then rinse and repeat in 2025 and beyond.

Given the alternatives, I'm keeping Tua. As a Dolfan, I've seen too may years of horrific QB play to want to go back.

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