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Why the Phins did not tag Wilkins?

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Why the Phins did not tag Wilkins? Empty Why the Phins did not tag Wilkins?

Post by finfanatic Sun Mar 10, 2024 9:23 am

As much as I love Wilkins, and would have loved to see him on the team, I think this is the reason the Phins did not sign him:

Jones is the bar for defensive tackles leading his position group.

He led all qualified defensive tackles in pass pressure percentage. Here’s a look at how the rest of the top pass pressure players at DT stacked up compared to Jones (stats via TruMedia, minimum 200 pass rush snaps to qualify, rankings in parentheses are for qualified defensive linemen):

Why the Phins did not tag Wilkins? Screen33

Notice who is not on that list.  And who seems to be asking for money like he is near the top of the list?

Here's the Athletic article about Chris Jones signing a 5 yer 95 mill contract.

https://theathletic.com/5308047/2024/03/09/chris-jones-free-agency-chiefs-contract/?source=pulsenewsletter&campaign=9237330&userId=14985136

The Phins can sign four or five players for what Wilkins is asking for IMO!
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Post by JEGnj Sun Mar 10, 2024 2:07 pm

I'm just so stuck on this. Wilkins is the leader on D and a homegrown player. We are going to pay Armstead to miss half the season and play the other half injured but on of the team leaders leave.
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Post by JMP Sun Mar 10, 2024 2:25 pm

Wilkins was not tagged because we didn't have the cap space to use the franchise tag.

The Dolphins are still trying to sign Wilkins, but they are not going to make him one of the league's highest-paid DTs - and they shouldn't. As you point out, FF, as good as he is and as much of a leader as he is, he is simply not one of the best players at his position. So the ball is in his court at this point.

On Armstead - the Dolphins are re-working his contract. We should know what that means soon - hopefully a substantial cap savings.

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Post by white1 Sun Mar 10, 2024 2:50 pm

Yeah I’ve come full circle on Wilkins here is my current thinking:

- you can’t play very good players on an elite contract. If you’re going to pay for elite they better actually be elite. Wilkins is very good, no question. I don’t know if hes a blue chip difference maker.
- Phillips Waddle and Holland are rapidly coming up for extensions. Given we have Seiler, I’m not prioritizing Wilkins over any of them.
- since tagging Wilkins was never really a feasible option I wont get into it too much. But I would prioritize some of the bigger holes on this team: namely interior offensive line and pass rusher. I would be very excited to see Van Ginkel and Lamm come back. I don’t believe we will choose to retain Hunt he will be very expensive. We’re gonna need some journeymen at G and C in my opinion.
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Post by DolFan 316 Sun Mar 10, 2024 8:23 pm

white1 wrote:Yeah I’ve come full circle on Wilkins here is my current thinking:

- you can’t play very good players on an elite contract. If you’re going to pay for elite they better actually be elite. Wilkins is very good, no question. I don’t know if hes a blue chip difference maker.
- Phillips Waddle and Holland are rapidly coming up for extensions. Given we have Seiler, I’m not prioritizing Wilkins over any of them.
- since tagging Wilkins was never really a feasible option I wont get into it too much. But I would prioritize some of the bigger holes on this team: namely interior offensive line and pass rusher. I would be very excited to see Van Ginkel and Lamm come back. I don’t believe we will choose to retain Hunt he will be very expensive. We’re gonna need some journeymen at G and C in my opinion.

I know I keep saying this, but the amount the cap rises will ALWAYS be exceeded by player salary demands, and by a significant amount to boot. Players tend to be bad at math. They think if the cap rises 25% in an offseason it means they can and should all instantly get 25% raises if not more.



Last edited by DolFan 316 on Sun Mar 10, 2024 8:27 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by DolFan 316 Sun Mar 10, 2024 8:26 pm

JMP wrote:The Dolphins are still trying to sign Wilkins, but they are not going to make him one of the league's highest-paid DTs - and they shouldn't.  As you point out, FF, as good as he is and as much of a leader as he is, he is simply not one of the best players at his position.  So the ball is in his court at this point.

It's almost like teams have access to quantifiable information these days detailing exactly how good or not good every player is in certain situations related to the position they play, or something scratch

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Post by finfanatic Mon Mar 11, 2024 8:43 am

I am going to be very interested in how much Wilkins gets.

I am even more interested in who the Phins sign to replace him!!

But yeah, signing four or five free agents versus tagging Wilkins was a non-starter IMO. Especially with as many holes as the Phins have.
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Post by mercury22nathan Mon Mar 11, 2024 10:54 am

JMP wrote:Wilkins was not tagged because we didn't have the cap space to use the franchise tag.

but i thought you kept saying that the cap wasn't a problem?  i thought they could re-negotiate deals such that they would make more than enough cap space?

is it that they couldn't use the tag because of cap space or is it they chose not to use the tag because they didn't feel Wilkins was worth it?

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Post by white1 Mon Mar 11, 2024 11:00 am

is it that they couldn't use the tag because of cap space or is it they chose not to use the tag because they didn't feel Wilkins was worth it?

The more I read and think, the more I believe the team made a conscious choice here.

Wilkins will likely get more than his true value in FA. Maybe A LOT more.

However, it's not outside the realm of possible outcomes that Wilkins will be disappointed with the offers he gets. Especially once you include the state income tax benefit of living in Florida. Outside of Florida, figure the tax burden at maybe 5% which is significant. On a 25 million average annual contract, that's 1.25 million a year so the Dolphins could match by offering 23.75.

I do put the chances Wilkins stays in Miami quite low. Call it 15%.
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Post by JMP Mon Mar 11, 2024 12:43 pm

mercury22nathan wrote:
JMP wrote:Wilkins was not tagged because we didn't have the cap space to use the franchise tag.

but i thought you kept saying that the cap wasn't a problem?  i thought they could re-negotiate deals such that they would make more than enough cap space?

is it that they couldn't use the tag because of cap space or is it they chose not to use the tag because they didn't feel Wilkins was worth it?

We needed to free up about $30 million to get under the cap. Franchising Wilkins would mean we'd instead have to free up more than $50 million. Could we have done that? Yep - but it would have been foolish.

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Post by finfanatic Mon Mar 11, 2024 1:07 pm

JMP wrote:
mercury22nathan wrote:
JMP wrote:Wilkins was not tagged because we didn't have the cap space to use the franchise tag.

but i thought you kept saying that the cap wasn't a problem?  i thought they could re-negotiate deals such that they would make more than enough cap space?

is it that they couldn't use the tag because of cap space or is it they chose not to use the tag because they didn't feel Wilkins was worth it?

We needed to free up about $30 million to get under the cap.  Franchising Wilkins would mean we'd instead have to free up more than $50 million.  Could we have done that?  Yep - but it would have been foolish.

I think the point is... or maybe the POINTS ARE is better....

A) Wilkins is apparently seeking a deal that will pay him at the top of the DT market (Pre-Chris Jones top of the market anyway!) and he definitely does not have the production to warrant that, yet watch some team snap him up and pay him a large signing bonus and backload the salary so his five year deal is probably more a 3 year deal!
B) Keeping Wilkins would have meant not being able to fill four or five holes in free agency. Better to let Wilkins hit the market and see what he can get even at the risk of losing him; and then re-sign Bailey, Needham, others, and then get Jonnu Smith signed etc...

Having the shed salary and renegotiate to get under the cap AND HAVE ROOM to bring in free agents is a huge difference from having to shed salary and renegotiate to get under the cap to cover Wilkins tag amount and sign basically nobody until post June IMO.



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Post by JMP Mon Mar 11, 2024 1:33 pm

Wilkins is a Raider: 4 years, $110 million with $84.75 million guaranteed. Love Wilkins, but that's too much for me.

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Post by DolFan 316 Mon Mar 11, 2024 2:22 pm

white1 wrote:I do put the chances Wilkins stays in Miami quite low.  Call it 15%.

Optimistic to the end. That's one of the things I like about you cheers Seriously.

Good riddance to that greedy grifter, I say!

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Post by finfanatic Mon Mar 11, 2024 2:55 pm

Wilkins got his twenty mill per year guaranteed! That was the sticking point in the August 2023 negotiations I heard (unsubstantiated but from a source I consider very reliable.) Miami was at 15 mill per year guaranteed, and then went to 17 and then stopped. Wilkins and his agent wanted north of 20 mill per. And he got it.

Teaming Wilkins up with Max Crosby could make this a brilliant move for the Raiders IMO. And probably means they are going after a QB in the draft.
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Post by mercury22nathan Tue Mar 12, 2024 3:03 pm

question. if Miami made what they believed was a fair offer last offseason and Wilkins refused and they knew they were never going to offer the type of money that he would accept (or could get on the open market) and couldn't afford to tag him, then would it not have been better to trade him last year as they would have at least gotten something for him (higher than a possible 3rd round comp pick)?

i mean, isn't that what the smart GMs do?

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Post by DolFan 316 Tue Mar 12, 2024 3:19 pm

mercury22nathan wrote:question.  if Miami made what they believed was a fair offer last offseason and Wilkins refused and they knew they were never going to offer the type of money that he would accept (or could get on the open market) and couldn't afford to tag him, then would it not have been better to trade him last year as they would have at least gotten something for him (higher than a possible 3rd round comp pick)?

i mean, isn't that what the smart GMs do?

Except that would've left only Sieler and Davis available at DT on a team that was going all-in to win a title last season.

Again, Wilkins wanted out all along and that's why even before his sack breakout he deliberately asked for more than he knew Grier was willing to pay. It's classic millennial passive-aggressive behavior. Ask for too much on purpose and then when you don't get it you're "justified" in leaving because "they wouldn't give me what I wanted".

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Post by mercury22nathan Tue Mar 12, 2024 3:31 pm

DolFan 316 wrote:
mercury22nathan wrote:question.  if Miami made what they believed was a fair offer last offseason and Wilkins refused and they knew they were never going to offer the type of money that he would accept (or could get on the open market) and couldn't afford to tag him, then would it not have been better to trade him last year as they would have at least gotten something for him (higher than a possible 3rd round comp pick)?

i mean, isn't that what the smart GMs do?

Except that would've left only Sieler and Davis available at DT on a team that was going all-in to win a title last season.

Again, Wilkins wanted out all along and that's why even before his sack breakout he deliberately asked for more than he knew Grier was willing to pay. It's classic millennial passive-aggressive behavior. Ask for too much on purpose and then when you don't get it you're "justified" in leaving because "they wouldn't give me what I wanted".

i get it. they went all in and it blew up in their faces.

but then how about non-exclusive transition tag this year. i mean if Burns was worth 2nd and 5th - what would Wilkins be worth? at least more than the 3rd round comp they might or might not get, right? all the way around, i think Grier screwed this one up letting Wilkins go for nothing even knowing he wasn't going be able to keep him.

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Post by DolFan 316 Tue Mar 12, 2024 3:35 pm

mercury22nathan wrote:but then how about non-exclusive transition tag this year.  i mean if Burns was worth 2nd and 5th - what would Wilkins be worth?  at least more than the 3rd round comp they might or might not get, right?  all the way around, i think Grier screwed this one up letting Wilkins go for nothing even knowing he wasn't going be able to keep him.

NOW you're talking Cool And yes, Grier screwed up, but not exactly how you think. He should've just admitted he had no chance of keeping Wilkins after talks broke down last offseason instead of looking like that desperate clingy ex we've all had who won't let go even after the breakup. Yes, Wilkins still leaves but at least Grier still looks like he has *some* testosterone left.

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Post by JMP Tue Mar 12, 2024 3:49 pm

I'm glad we got one more year out of Wilkins. I wouldn't have traded him last season. Then again, he was a favorite of mine so maybe that's just me being selfish! LOL

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Post by mercury22nathan Thu Apr 11, 2024 3:09 pm

not that it matters now, but Wilkins didn't want to leave.

“There was nothing more that I wanted to do than to bring Miami a winner,” Wilkins said on a podcast with Jacksonville Jaguars defensive lineman Arik Armstead that premiered Wednesday. “Give this city, give these people, give this organization what it deserves. So that was obviously a lot of my focus, just to at least do my part.

“Whatever that was from a leadership standpoint, from a playing standpoint, community standpoint, I just always tried to do my part and put my best foot forward there. And just put, literally my heart and soul, into every aspect of everything while I was here with the Dolphins.”

Wilkins’ time with the Dolphins came to an end simply because the team couldn’t afford him. Neither the $22.1 franchise tag nor the five-year, $110 million deal he signed with the Las Vegas Raiders were going to fit into Miami’s relatively tight budget.

So instead, Wilkins was forced to head elsewhere.

“Obviously, now it’s different, it’s a little tough to move to another organization after you put so much into a team and an organization,” Wilkins told Armstead.

https://dolphinswire.usatoday.com/2024/04/11/christian-wilkins-dolphins-2024-nfl-free-agency/

but not enough to take a below market value deal to stay. but then again, nor should he. football careers are fleeting, grab as much as you can when you can. just ask Connor Williams.


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Post by DolFan 316 Thu Apr 11, 2024 3:14 pm

Yeah, I read that when I clicked on your other link(s).

I have no doubt Wilkins was fully committed to the Fins when he was on the team, but deliberately asking for more than you know they could afford--and the passive-aggressive hold in to boot--sure is a strange way of wanting to stick around.

Now that he's an ex-Fin I have three words for Wilkins: Cut the crap. Nobody wants to hear you play the victim in this situation. Also, I predicted he'd act just like this if you recall.

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Post by JMP Thu Apr 11, 2024 4:55 pm

The thing is, the Dolphins could have afforded Wilkins. $5 or 6 million extra per year wasn't going to make or break the team, at all. Clearly, the Dolphins just didn't want to pay that much for a defensive lineman. I certainly see both sides - I don't blame Wilkins for getting the most he could, and I don't blame the Phins for not wanting to pay that amount. Personally, as much as I love the guy, I wouldn't have paid him that much either. As others have pointed out, we already have a damn good DL in Sieler - and he's making a small fraction of the salary Wilkins just got.

In the end, it sucks to lose Wilkins - but I think both sides did what they needed to do.

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