My 7-10 prediction

This team keeps getting worse by the day. 7-10 might be to generous considering how many pieces we are losing on defense and the line without having the draft capitol to fill the voids.

We just keep setting ourselves up to overpay for Veterans because they are not gonna wanna come here.

Grier is being shady and no one is going to want to play here. Fuck the dumbshit, Just let Tua go. Trade him since you giving away most of the pieces. Trade him not to a team but a GM who knows what the fuck he doing.

So we're making predictions in early March, before free agency officially begins?

OK, I'll play - the offense will be improved and the defense will be as good or better than last season. I'm going with 12-5 and an AFC East title.

Of course, it's absolutely bonkers to predict a team's record when the roster is nowhere near set. LOL

Of course I'm doing the same thing. It's a meaningless exercise, so why not hope for the best instead of giving up???

But I do think the defense can be better. If Weaver can really build a tough, multiple defense it can be a big improvement over the soft, rigid defense we had with Fangio.

DolFan 316 wrote:Still trying to figure out how something can be soft and rigid at the same time

Rigid in that they didn't bother changing things up even when the initial plan wasn't working. Soft..well...see the end of the Titans game and the entire Ravens game for examples! (Actually, both of those games are great examples of the soft and rigid idea!)

DolFan 316 wrote:But at least I'm in a better mood now than I've been all day, for completely non Fins reasons

So yes, predicting a record at this stage is an impossible fool’s errand – but that is why we’re Dolphins’ fans…impossibly foolish. As things stand right now, I can not say this team is any better off than the one that ended 2023 in collapse. If anything, they are appreciable worse.

A fair amount of folks on this board wanted to point to the oline injuries as the cause of Tua melting at the end of the season. So how did Miami react? By allowing (or being forced to allow due to awful cap management) the best interior olinemen (Hunt) to walk and resigning/keeping (Jones & Eich) the backups that many complained were the cause of the subpar offensive performances. And yes, they did sign a new center – one that is an awful – as in far worse – pass blocker (Brewster) than the as of yet unsigned injured center (Williams). How does that help Tua if indeed the poor pass blocking oline was the cause of his struggles?

He [Brewer] allowed six sacks this past season, the second most among centers, according to Pro Football Focus. And his 34 pressures allowed were the third most of all centers, according to PFF.

https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/nfl/miami-dolphins/article286106641.html

Now one might be tempted to argue that Brewer is an upgrade in run blocking – well, he was rated by PFF as the 7th best run blocking center.- But let me also remind you that rating was garnered with the battering ram Derrick Henry who creates many of his own yards and oh by the way, the Dolphins don’t really run up the gut that much anyways. Does anyone remember what Williams was rated?

The Dolphins center was particularly adept in Mike McDaniel’s zone-heavy scheme, where he clocked a league-best 92.4 run-blocking grade on zone concepts.

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-highest-graded-interior-offensive-linemen-2023-nfl-season#:~:text=C%20Connor%20Williams%2C%20Miami%20Dolphins%3A%2086.5&text=The%20Dolphins%20center%20was%20particularly,blocking%20grade%20on%20zone%20concepts.

So yes, the new center (at a relatively small 6-1, 295) is a significant downgrade there too. There is just no way to argue the combination of Brewer and Jones/Eich are better than a combo of Williams and Hunt – they just aren’t.

I get it, the argument will be, “But Miami couldn’t afford to pay Hunt that much.” And that is true (mostly due to Grier’s irresponsible cap management) and Miami probably shouldn’t pay an interior olinemen that much anyhow. But still, no matter whether they could’ve or should’ve – the fact remains, from a talent perspective, the oline is worse right now and that is not gonna help Tua and the rest of the offense get better.

Now the defense still has so many holes right now (DT, DE, injured OLBs, S and CB) and will be learning a new system with many new players playing together for the first time it’s hard to quantify exactly how much worse they will be. And to plug all those holes, they might get one, maybe two, FA/rookies who are as good as the guys they lost, but then all the rest are going to have to be bargain basement, space-filler guys who more than likely will be worse than the guys they are replacing – because you know, that salary cap thing again.

Nope, right now, I just can’t see this team being any better than last year. Which of course mean not even making the playoffs and probably finishing 3rd in the AFC East (the NFL is already wetting their pants over the idea of Aaron Rodgers being the “cum (on my) back” player of the year). Yep, 7-10 sounds generously correct.

Why are we even worried about whether the team is "better" or "worse" on March 12??? Can we maybe wait till the roster is set and we know who our 22 starters are?

I agree with JMP here.

It's way too early to predict doom and gloom.

I know we lost our starting RG and starting DT in free agency. Those are simply not premier positions.

Here are some reasons for optimism:
- Jonnu Smith is an excellent athlete and provides the physical red zone threat we have been lacking.
- The signing of the Titans center could be a harbinger of McDaniel pivoting to a power running attack with more play action to help Tua especially against the elite defenses we struggled against.
- Williams is hurt but could be a great summer signing, and it's possible we would play either him or our new Center at LG.
- Armstead coming back is excellent news. We were able to keep both starting tackles to build the line around. Of course we will have a backup, everyone on earth knows he will miss games, there will be a plan for that just like last season.
- Baker was a calculated release. It's clear we are shifting our defensive philosophy to a more dynamic LB corps. From what I have read (briefly) the two guys we signed so far are very good in coverage.
- Needham is an under rated re-sign. My guess is he wins the nickel job from Kohou and he will play really well there. Kohou will have to compete at boundary or slide down the depth chart.
- Dropping Howard most likely would have happened even if we were fine from a cap standpoint. Age and injuries are catching up to him, we need more youth in the secondary.
- I believe Holland will blossom this year. Pairing him with Ramsey is the start of a very strong secondary.
- Tua has not reached his ceiling yet. There is more coming - every offseason he has made adjustments / improvements in his game. This offseason will be no exception. Contrary to Flores opinion, he is an excellent worker and will not stop improving.
- Our running back room is exceptionally strong. This backs up my theory McDaniel will lean on a power running attack. We have speed power and pass catching ability.

Love that post, white. I thought I was the only one that saw some reasons for optimism! LOL

My whole thing with adding players is fit. I don't necessarily care what they've done in other places - I am more concerned with how, in my layman's opinion, they fit with what the Dolphins are trying to do. And from that perspective, all the signings so far make sense to me - a lot of sense, actually.

Your point about the run game is key. A lot of us have been shocked about how supposed run-game guru McD has handled the run game in Miami. Maybe he just didn't have the right OL personnel? Brewer is a step toward making that happen. It will be really interesting to see how we fill the guard positions. The signing of Brewer makes me think that Wynn may no longer be an option at LG...I think we will look for someone more mobile. Conner Williams certainly fits the bill - if he's expected to be back in a reasonable timeframe. But yeah, keep an eye on what we do at guard - that will tell us a lot about the run game.

What I'm envisioning is a much more open run game, which will benefit Achane. And, a whole screen play element, where both Brewer and Jonnu Smith can do serious damage. Of course, this all leads to more room for Hill and Waddle.

I'm excited about the new offensive direction. McD is clearly not just standing pat.

I'm excited about the new offensive direction. McD is clearly not just standing pat.

His offense will continue to evolve, and our rushing attack was very good last year. Part of what may change is simply his play calling. He's got two seasons under his belt now, he's too smart to stand pat on what he did last season. He's cut from the same cloth as Shanahan, and his offense keeps evolving also.

Regarding the offensive line, I think our starters are already in place now that we have a true center (and it really is a shame Williams got hurt, that was simply an outstanding FA pickup). Here's my current take (I'm dangerous now that I'm listening to AllDolphins podcast, it really is cool to hear the wide range of topics they cover all focused on the Fins).

LT - Armstead. Still elite when he's on the field. We will definitely have one or two swing tackles on the roster, knowing his injury history. I believe Lamm will be back and he won't be expensive.
LG - R Jones. Cheap, but good. Knows the system and the fact he was a quick signing indicates the team likes how he fits the scheme.
C - Brewer. Excellent run blocker and praise for how fast he moves to the second level of the defense. Pass pro not as strong, but like people are pointing to Henry I'll do the same thing: who was playing QB behind him? Sacks aren't always on the line, Tua's quick release will help him as will an offense that's much more powerful than what the Titans had.
RG - Eichenburg. Let the fun begin LOL! We all know he struggled early in his career - that's over. Respect the man he has played at ALL FIVE spots on the offensive line, and last year was a very good LG. Center might be his weakest spot but he can still fill in if necessary. Last season, reportedly he told people RG is his best position and he feels most comfortable there. I'm looking forward to watching him play.
RT - Jackson. From near-bust to earning a contract extension, he's become a very good right tackle.

As much as the Butch Barry signing was panned, you have to give him credit. Player development does not appear to be a coincidence. When all the starters went down, we still fielded a serviceable line and that's a drastic departure from past seasons when missing even ONE starter spelled doom up front.

Nice, white.

I do think Jones and Eich may compete for one of the starting guard spots, but I have a feeling we are going to add another starting guard.

Barry did a helluva job last season. Probably his biggest accomplishment was somehow turning Eich into a center - not a very good center, but still, to take a guy that has never played the position before and make him a serviceable center in-season is pretty impressive.

DolFan 316 wrote:UH oh...it seems Jmp and white1 have teamed up. I'm calling their union the Coalition of Optimistic Posting Energy (COPE) and calling for the rest of you to band with me and put a stop to this misguided movement of misinformation before they can poison all of our minds and turn us into Stepford smilers!

https://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/StepfordSmiler

j/k I actually like their stiff upper lips in the wake of the tornadic destruction of this team's talent level. Even if they're wrong Never change, guys!!! (Whispers.) Never change...

You can't COPE wit me!

All I can say in my defense is that I like the players we signed so far! I'm sure it's just a matter of time till we sign a player or three that make me scratch my head, but so far so good!

Still plenty of holes on this team...lots of work to do.

DolFan 316 wrote:

If the Brewer signing didn't have you giving your scalp a serious massage, I am convinced nothing will

I just love the athleticism and what it could mean for the running game. If McD can find a way to use the run to open up the pass, this offense can become SCARY good.

Of course Brewer's pass pro is a concern - I'm just not sure it will be that big of a negative in this offense. We'll find out!

It just sucks that Williams got hurt. Then again, if healthy we may not have been able to afford him. I still think there's a chance we can sign him if he is still around in June or July.

DolFan 316 wrote:

JMP wrote:It just sucks that Williams got hurt.  Then again, if healthy we may not have been able to afford him.  I still think there's a chance we can sign him if he is still around in June or July.

I actually think in a weird, twisted way it was a blessing in disguise. His agent's already said he's not signing with anyone right now, which means at least technically the Fins still have a chance to bring him in as a midseason reinforcement. AND they have the edge, however slight it may be, of convincing him to rehab at facilities and with staff he's familiar with. Remember, they'll have at least $18 mil freed up after June 1 because the Howard release...

Oh great, now you've got ME doing it!

well, while DF and i aren't that impressed with the Brewer signing, i think we can all agree he's in all likelihood a better option than trying to run it back with Eich filling in as the starting center while waiting/hoping for a healthy Williams to maybe return.

It is still way early, but I agree with merc and DF316: other than the LB position, the rest of the team is worse.

And Brewer... When the former teams fans are GLAD he left in free agency, that is never a good sign. He might work out in Miami, but...

As far as McD changing the offense... Unless they really upgrade the Oline, are they going to go to a power running game and have Tua hold the ball longer than 2 seconds in the passing game? That would be a MAJOR SHIFT in the McD offense IMO.

My concern is the Phins are going to be WEAK UP THE MIDDLE of the Oline again. An Oline that has Eich, Brewer, and Jones in the middle is going to be a disaster IMO. SO, I am hoping that is not the case and Eich and Jones are being looked on as backups only.

I just feel like I have seen this "movie" before from Grier and it ends the same way for the Phins: BADLY!!

But it is early and we shall see.

finfanatic wrote:It is still way early, but I agree with merc and DF316: other than the LB position, the rest of the team is worse.

And Brewer... When the former teams fans are GLAD he left in free agency, that is never a good sign. He might work out in Miami, but...

As far as McD changing the offense... Unless they really upgrade the Oline, are they going to go to a power running game and have Tua hold the ball longer than 2 seconds in the passing game?  That would be a MAJOR SHIFT in the McD offense IMO.

My concern is the Phins are going to be WEAK UP THE MIDDLE of the Oline again. An Oline that has Eich, Brewer, and Jones in the middle is going to be a disaster IMO. SO, I am hoping that is not the case and Eich and Jones are being looked on as backups only.

I just feel like I have seen this "movie" before from Grier and it ends the same way for the Phins: BADLY!!

But it is early and we shall see.

Yep, the team is worse today - but mostly because the roster is not finished and we don't even have a full set of 22 starters yet! LOL

On Brewer - Titans' fan opinions mean nothing. I prefer to go by the analysts I've watched/listened to, and what I see myself - and I think Brewer is an ideal fit for this Dolphins scheme. The Dolphins are not going to a power run game, at all. They'll continue with their version of the zone, but having more athletic linemen like Brewer and a YAC TE like Smith will open up the playbook and allow McD to do things he wasn't able to do in years 1 and 2.

I'm not sure why anyone is worried about an IOL of Eich, Brewer, and Jones. That hasn't been announced as the starting 3, and will almost certainly NOT be the starting 3. It's way too early and many more moves will be made.

JMP wrote:

DolFan 316 wrote:UH oh...it seems Jmp and white1 have teamed up. I'm calling their union the Coalition of Optimistic Posting Energy (COPE) and calling for the rest of you to band with me and put a stop to this misguided movement of misinformation before they can poison all of our minds and turn us into Stepford smilers!

You can't COPE wit me!

NOT FAIR!!! if they get a nickname, i want one too.

Pessimists' Outlook On Phins... POOP!! come on DF and FF, let's join together in POOP.

mercury22nathan wrote:

JMP wrote:

DolFan 316 wrote:UH oh...it seems Jmp and white1 have teamed up. I'm calling their union the Coalition of Optimistic Posting Energy (COPE) and calling for the rest of you to band with me and put a stop to this misguided movement of misinformation before they can poison all of our minds and turn us into Stepford smilers!

You can't COPE wit me!

NOT FAIR!!!  if they get a nickname, i want one too.

Pessimists' Outlook On Phins...  POOP!!  come on DF and FF, let's join together in POOP.  

FF raises hand and waves it frantically in the air: "Mr. Chairman. Mr. Chairman, sir!! I motion that Merc be forever barred from the acronym suggestion committee!"

Mr. Chariman: "We have a motion on the floor the Merc be barred from the acronym suggestion committee. All in favor?"

A unanimous shout of "Aye" is heard.

Merc slowly slinks away, his head hung low in shame.

DF316, the sympathetic one always, shouts as he goes by "And don't come back!"



Besides, Merc, I don't know if you know or not, but POOP is DF316's title: Potentate Of Odious Pessimism!!

It wouldn't be right to just take DF316's sobriquet.