Dolphins draft prediction time

"Shall we play a game?" (yes, a Wargames 1983 reference)

who do you want Miami to take? (and you can optionally so why)
who do you think they'll take? (again, offer whatever reasons - or not - you want)

and then we can compare to the actually outcome after Thursday night.

and BONUS points for those who actually stay up and endure the first 20 picks (assuming Miami doesn't trade) and answer the above two questions again while Miami is on the clock!!

i want Miami to take LSU WR Brian Thomas, Jr. i see the biggest needs for every football team as guys who directly score points and or stop points from being scored. to me that's offense skill players (Miami has a QB and RBs are devalued) and pass rushers - with generational LTs being a close second. that leaves WRs and DE/OLBers. despite the QB run (I agree with some/most of JMP's mock 1st), i still believe the prime pass rushers will be off the board by 21. to me the WR i most covet with the possibility of being in that range is Thomas. he may be gone by then, but he's my pick as we stand here 1 day out.

who i think Miami will take? well, that's a bit more complicated depending who is still on the board, but something keeps telling me that after being unable to trade back, Miami will be convince themselves to make a slight reach on the defensive side of the ball by bypassing Cooper DeJean for FSU's DT Braden Fiske. while its not a horrible pick and i certainly would've preferred DeJean (as a trade back wasn't in the offing), its not my first choice, but i understand it and can live with the solid pick (if i'm not ecstatic about it).

My real want is Bowers, because I think he's a rare complete TE that can be a stud from day 1.

Otherwise, Fiske or Latu. Fiske because I think he's a Maxx Crosby type and would give us the attitude we lost with Wilkins, and Latu because I consider him the best pass rusher in the draft - and at 21, I'll take a chance on his neck being OK.

Who will the Phins take? Verse is he's there. And obviously if Fashanu is there as he is in my mock, he'd be a likely choice. But OL and edge are the positions I expect the pick to come from, whether it's Verse/Fashanu or someone else.

Sleeper picks: DL Darius Robinson or WR Brian Thomas. Robinson because I think he's highly underrated and seems like a good fit in the new D, and Thomas because I think McD would make him into an instant star - even with Reek and Waddle playing.

I hate to break it to you guys but to me it's clear as day: McDaniel has already talked Grier into taking...Xavier Worthy at 21. A shiny new toy who can run really fast in a straight line and give an excuse to let Waddle walk, trenches be damned. I thought the pick would be Mims but over the last 48 hours things have changed. This is going to happen even if Verse, Thomas, or even Graham Barton are still available. Thomas is fast for sure, but unfortunately he's just too big. The McDaniel offense has no use for any WR over 6 feet tall and 200 pounds. Also, the Jets are getting Bowers and the Bills are taking Thomas or Mitchell, both of whom are far superior to Worthy, who will be the biggest WR bust of this draft. I absolutely hate it, but truth is truth. You will all see soon enough. I'm refusing to care because I've finally gotten sick and tired of throwing internet hissyfits every time this team inevitably botches the draft. I'll track the first 10-15 picks or so just because even I'm interested in seeing who will trade what and how many there will be. There could be at least ten trades in the first 15 picks alone.

My personal dream draft would be Verse and Beebe. I'd also settle for DeJean and Beebe, Haynes instead of Beebe at 55 if he's already been taken, or a trade down and still getting Barton. But a dream is all it is. Grier has as much of a chance at getting the first 2 picks right as he does of getting me pregnant. My strategy is to just hole up for the next few days and wait for the torture to end. I might comment during the first 15-20 picks but that's it.

I really don't see Worthy being the pick at 21. There's literally zero chance that he'd be at the top of Grier's list at that point in the draft. McD wanted Achane in round one last year, and Grier didn't do it - so I don't see him caving in this time. Grier has played this offseason to make sure he can comfortably go BPA in round one - and I think he'll stick to his board. With the expected QB run, and possible runs on corners and OL, the Phins are going to be in position to choose from several really good options - all of whom would be ranked higher than Worthy.

And for the record, I like Worthy a lot. He's a much more complete receiver than I initially thought - he's not "just" a speed guy.

JMP wrote:I really don't see Worthy being the pick at 21.  There's literally zero chance that he'd be at the top of Grier's list at that point in the draft.  McD wanted Achane in round one last year, and Grier didn't do it - so I don't see him caving in this time.  Grier has played this offseason to make sure he can comfortably go BPA in round one - and I think he'll stick to his board.  With the expected QB run, and possible runs on corners and OL, the Phins are going to be in position to choose from several really good options - all of whom would be ranked higher than Worthy.

And for the record, I like Worthy a lot.  He's a much more complete receiver than I initially thought - he's not "just" a speed guy.

Trust me, Mitchell is better. And he's not even that special. I have Mitchell as being ever so slighly worse than the third Washington WR in the draft whose name I keep forgetting. Yes, they have three. Both those guys will be average at best yet still look like Jerry Rice compared to Worthy. My track record of identifying busts stands for itself.

Also, Grier has a track record of always drafting whoever the current head coach wants in the first on the side of the ball that's his specialty. This is how the Fins wound up with Iggy. McDaniel wanting Achane in the first means nothing since this team didn't HAVE a first last year.

Also, Youtube bragging rights are on the line here: I've already dissed Worthy there and of course someone called me on it and said he's making a screenshot of my comments. I'm not afraid of being wrong about Worthy sucking--I'm afraid of Grier drafting him since it means I'll never hear the end of it from this guy and probably a lot of others too. And you know how important it is to look smart on the internet these days

DolFan 316 wrote:McDaniel wanting Achane in the first means nothing since this team didn't HAVE a first last year.

That's right...my mistake, I meant 2nd round! LOL

But again, I think Grier is going to stick to his board. No chance Worthy will be #1 on his board at 21. Possibly in a trade down, but not 21.

If they were to go WR, I think I'd really want Troy Franklin myself. Though this is a deep class. I hope we get a WR as I see very good prospects into Day 3 and there's likely to be UFA's making it from this class.

I'm hoping for Verse, Murphy, Latham or Fautanu otherwise, though there's a number of players I'd be happy with. My prediction is that Fautanu or Barton will get the nod if we stay at 21. Because the 3rd/4th round is where the real value is this time, I'd like a trade down really.

I like Troy Franklin too, but I just keep thinking that the best receiver for the Phins is Roman Wilson. He's an absolute beast - versatile, fast, great hands, runs a variety of routes, and not only blocks well but LOVES to do it. I think he plays with a relentless style and he'd add so much to this offense. I'd love to get him at 55, even considering how much I want a guard there.

JMP wrote:I like Troy Franklin too, but I just keep thinking that the best receiver for the Phins is Roman Wilson.  He's an absolute beast - versatile, fast, great hands, runs a variety of routes, and not only blocks well but LOVES to do it.  I think he plays with a relentless style and he'd add so much to this offense.  I'd love to get him at 55, even considering how much I want a guard there.

Agree. Was looking at Franklin as a first pick, but like Wilson a lot too, just not at 21.

Given where WR salaries are going, maybe we need two in this draft....

Here's my dream scenario...
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I would make this trade.

Then do something like this:
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JPJ at Center, Brewer at one OG spot and maybe Wynn at the other... good stuff I think.

Kneeland is a good solid PassRUsher and will help out early and then be part of a fearsome rotation IMO.

Include Fiske in this rotation. If he does develop into a Max crosby type, so much the better.

And then Roman Wilson. I dearly wanted to take Ricky Pearsall as I think his athleticism in what the Phins need rather than another speedy WR, but no doubt Wilson has got the speed McD likes.

This looks like five good starters or rotational starters to me. But who knows in the crapshoot that is the draft.

I doubt Chris Grier would make any of these picks even if he did take the trade down.

YES FF! That trade would be outstanding!!

Although I am souring on JPJ after hearing about his alleged concussion history...

I am also hearing that the Chiefs may want to move up for an offensive tackle...

Oh yeah, definitely happening now.

https://www.profootballrumors.com/2024/04/afc-draft-rumors-dolphins-worthy-jets-ol-bills-legette-chiefs

In on multiple wide receivers and discussing terms with Odell Beckham Jr, the Dolphins are operating like a team that does not employ one of this NFL period’s better receiving tandems. Despite the Tyreek Hill–Jaylen Waddle duo, Miami is still being tied to a WR move in the draft. Teams view the Dolphins as being interested in Texas’ Xavier Worthy, SI.com’s Albert Breer notes. This would verge on overkill, as Hill is one of the fastest players in NFL history and Waddle can hold his own with most active NFLers. Worthy just set the Combine 40-yard dash record (4.21 seconds), and ESPN.com’s Jeremy Fowler indicates he is coming up most frequently as this draft’s WR4 — behind the Marvin Harrison Jr.–Malik Nabers–Rome Odunze trio expected to go off the board at No. 10 or soon after. A number of teams — including the Cardinals, Bears, Colts and Bills — met with Worthy. The Dolphins, who also employ De’Von Achane (he of a 10.1-second college 100-meter dash), hold the No. 21 overall pick.

You all have officially been warned...

DolFan 316 wrote:Oh yeah, definitely happening now.

https://www.profootballrumors.com/2024/04/afc-draft-rumors-dolphins-worthy-jets-ol-bills-legette-chiefs

In on multiple wide receivers and discussing terms with Odell Beckham Jr, the Dolphins are operating like a team that does not employ one of this NFL period’s better receiving tandems. Despite the Tyreek Hill–Jaylen Waddle duo, Miami is still being tied to a WR move in the draft. Teams view the Dolphins as being interested in Texas’ Xavier Worthy, SI.com’s Albert Breer notes. This would verge on overkill, as Hill is one of the fastest players in NFL history and Waddle can hold his own with most active NFLers. Worthy just set the Combine 40-yard dash record (4.21 seconds), and ESPN.com’s Jeremy Fowler indicates he is coming up most frequently as this draft’s WR4 — behind the Marvin Harrison Jr.–Malik Nabers–Rome Odunze trio expected to go off the board at No. 10 or soon after. A number of teams — including the Cardinals, Bears, Colts and Bills — met with Worthy. The Dolphins, who also employ De’Von Achane (he of a 10.1-second college 100-meter dash), hold the No. 21 overall pick.

You all have officially been warned...

I'm not buying it, at all. Don't follow the smoke...pre-draft, smoke does not equal fire!

Not in the first round obviously, but one player I'd love to see the Phins get is Michigan CB Mike Sainristil. This dude can play, and he's got excellent leadership ability.

I am honestly lost with needs and goings on. I've been watching the Hockey playoffs even with the Devils out and focused on the Yankees. Hopefully once camp opens and rosters are there I can gain some momentum back but I am still beat down from the Fins. I am at the point where I feel no matter what happens we will never get back to the big game.
I will follow who we draft and see what everyone says.

Neal Driscoll
@NealDriscoll

As I mentioned in the space I hosted. The Washington Commanders are trying to move back into round one to get an offensive tackle, most like Tyler Guyton. They'd like to get in front of Philadelphia (Pick #22) and Dallas (Pick #24) and have at least spoken with the Miami Dolphins about pick #21.

Pick #21 holds a value of 800 points.
Pick #36 holds a value of 540 points.
pick #40 holds a value of 500 points.

Miami trades pick #21 and a 2025 4th-round pick to Washing for picks #36 and #40. Would you do that?

12:21 PM · Apr 25, 2024

Very interesting.  Personally, I don't want to trade out of round one - but if I did, I'd want more than that and I would not give up a 2025 4th.


EDIT: Thinking about this more, maybe I would pull the trigger - if the 4th rounder isn't included. Having 2 early picks in the 2nd would be huge in this draft. I'd want to see who is available at 21 first...I wouldn't pass on Verse or Latu because the edge rusher quality dries up pretty quickly in this class IMO.

I heard somebody talking about Brian Thomas having some off the field injuries? Anybody hear anything about that?

finfanatic wrote:I heard somebody talking about Brian Thomas having some off the field injuries?   Anybody hear anything about that?

I haven't heard anything, but it seems like there are lots of injuries being talked about out of nowhere the past couple of days...Newton, Fautanu, JPJ, probably more. I remember last year when Torrance and Washington dropped due to injury concerns, and both went on to play 17 games as rookies! So I am not sure how much stock to put into these late announcements.

On another note, there are rumors that the Dolphins are shopping Holland. I guess it's not surprising given his pending contract, but if it happens it better be for a 2nd...I think he was drafted 36 overall and I'd want to get close to that value back. But honestly I have no idea what his value would be to other teams.

I got 3 TVs in 3 rooms going.

JEGnj wrote:I got 3 TVs in 3 rooms going.

Haha, I thouht you weren't interested

My strategy is to keep track of things until the Fins' pick or 10 PM, whatever comes first, and then bail and not know the grim, grisly details until Saturday night/Sunday. I know if I go on Youtube the front page will spoil it so I've even got a plan for that--I'll simply go directly to my watch history.

It's really sad that I actually need to resort to these lengths but I've got PTSD from being burned too many times.

I'm in my Computer/Gun/Junk room watching the Yankees. In the family room we got the hockey game with the wife and dogs. We have an extra TV in the living room where we put music on for the dogs and holidays and very occasionally watch TV. I'll put the draft on in there.

JEGnj wrote:I'm in my Computer/Gun/Junk room watching the Yankees. In the family room we got the hockey game with the wife and dogs. We have an extra TV in the living room where we put music on for the dogs and holidays and very occasionally watch TV. I'll put the draft on in there.

I'm watching somebody's draft livestream on Youtube for the first time. I assume Jmp will start a draft thread here. I've got the espn.com draft tracker as a backup.

I'm downstairs with my laptop, the draft on TV, and the Islanders on my phone.


Starting a draft thread now...

I want to see what Grier does. Either a good player who we will let walk in 4 years or a BUST that will lock up a roster spot just to prove he wasn't wrong.