Grier's Draft Record...

In the 3rd round or lower since taking over as GM in 2016 needs to be discussed IMO.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/mia/draft.htm

2016: Kenyan Drake and Leonte Caroo (3rd), Jakeem Grant and Jordan Lucas (6th), Brandon Doughty and Thomas Duarte (7th).

2017: Cordrea Tankersly (3rd), Isaac Asiata and Davon Godcheaux (5th), Vincent Taylor (6th) and Isaiah Ford (7th).

2018: Jerome Baker (3rd), Durham Smythe and Kalen Ballage (4th), Cornell Armstrong (6th), Quentin Poling and Jason Sanders (7th).

2019: Michael Dieter (3rd), Andrew Van Ginkel (5th), Isaiah Prince (6th), Chandler Cox and Myles Gaskin (7th).

2020: Brandon Jones (3rd), Solomon Kindley (4th), Jason Strowbridge and Curtis Weaver (5th), Blake Ferguson (6th) and Malcolm Perry (7th).

2021: Hunter Long (3rd), Larnel Coleman and Gerrid Doaks (7th).

2022: Channing Tindall (3rd), Erik Ezukanma (4th), Cameron Goode and Skylar Thompson (7th).

2023: De'Von Achane (3rd), Elijah Higgins (6th) and Ryan Hayes (7th).

The bolded picks are the ones who worked out at least a little. Including a long snapper, a return man, a DT who never did much in four seasons on the team, and a RB who also did very little on the surface might seem generous to some of you but they at least contributed *something* unlike the non-bolded players, most of whom might as well not have been drafted at all.

My point is twofold: Only ONE pick in the 3rd round or later has panned out from the last three drafts, and even the picks who did pan out almost never signed a second contract with the team.

By my count 11 of 38 picks worked out in some form or fashion. If you take away the 3rd rounders then only 7 of 29 did. And as you can see it gets worse from 2020 on. This does not inspire confidence from me that Grier's last four picks from this draft will amount to anything.

Yeah, the last few years appear to be really bad drafts. I wonder what changed/happened?

Different head coaches too, does not appear to have correlated to the quality of these picks.

You know what I don't think I have seen? What is the NFL average as far as finding quality players in each round? And by quality, any player that earns a second contract is probably the right measure. If they can stay in the league for several years, and another team picks them up in FA, then yes my take is they are GOOD, even if the original drafting team did not commit to the second deal.

white1 wrote:Yeah, the last few years appear to be really bad drafts.  I wonder what changed/happened?

Different head coaches too, does not appear to have correlated to the quality of these picks.  

You know what I don't think I have seen? What is the NFL average as far as finding quality players in each round? And by quality, any player that earns a second contract is probably the right measure.  If they can stay in the league for several years, and another team picks them up in FA, then yes my take is they are GOOD, even if the original drafting team did not commit to the second deal.

I would imagine most teams hit on a very low percentage of picks in rounds 3-7. There are always exceptions, but that's just the way it is.

As far as the Phins, 2022 was a terrible draft - but they had no early picks. In 2023, we have hit on 25% of our picks so far - which is a good percentage - and that could rise to 50% if Cam Smith becomes the player I think he will. The 2021 draft was great.

I would say what really hurt the Dolphins in 2022 and 2023 was having limited picks. Just 4 picks in 2023, with none in rounds 1, 4 or 5. Just 4 picks in 2022, with none in rounds 1, 2, 5 or 6. It's really tough to have strong drafts when you only have a a few picks and no first rounders. Obviously the drafting needs to get back to the 2021 level for the Phins, and hopefully having early picks again will help.

Man, 2022 might contend with 2006 and 2013 for the very worst draft in Dolphins history the way things are going. 2013 is right down there given the stock to work with, but Jelani Jenkins having two decent seasons elevates it a little.

Here's an article from 2022 by a Vikings reporter that talks about draft pick success rate. It's not by round, but overall.
https://www.dailynorseman.com/2022/4/26/23042105/nfl-draft-pick-bust-rate-remains-very-high

Five years ago I did a piece detailing how most draft picks are busts, based on a study of 1996-2016 draft picks. The results, which are based on the Pro Football Reference AV metric, are sobering:

16.7% didn’t play for the team that drafted them

37% were considered useless. They either didn’t play much or didn’t make the team.

15.3% were considered poor. Had limited playing time and didn’t do well in the time they had.

10.5% were considered average. These are mediocre players that had starts or significant contributions over 2-3 years.

12.3% were considered good. These could be mediocre or average players that were multi-year starters, Pat Elflein or Christian Ponder for example, or perhaps some genuinely good players that didn’t last all that long for the team that drafted them- Sidney Rice for example. This is where the AV metric can over-rate a player based on the number of starts, rather than their performance while on the field.

6.9% were considered Great. This category is the first that includes undeniably good draft picks. In order to be considered great, they would’ve had to play for the team that drafted them into a second contract, and also performed well over those years.

1% were considered legendary. These are future Hall of Famers, multi-year All-Pros among the best in the league for most of their relatively long careers.

And so only about 8% of draft picks are players that really make much of a difference beyond replacement value, and only about 30% see much playing time or make a significant contribution to the team.

That means among the 260 or so drafted players each year, only about 2-3 will have Hall of Fame caliber careers, and only about 21 will be undisputedly good picks- and very good but not HoF caliber players.

Overall, only about two dozen players every draft will go on to have significant careers performing at a high level. That’s not a lot - less than one genuinely good player per team each year.

Note the parts I bolded.

What about more recent results? From the same article:

The 33rd Team did a study, based on the 2010-2017 NFL draft classes, which have now all completed their rookie contracts, to see what percentage of players signed a second contract with the team that drafted them. The results aren’t any better than the previous study.

...

For example, among first-round draft picks selected between 2010-2017, only 31% signed a second contract with the team that drafted them.

Now that doesn’t mean that 69% of first-round draft picks during that period were total busts, but in most cases it meant the team didn’t value them enough to extend them. Comparing them to the previous study, these would be players in the average or worse categories, but some in the ‘good’ category as well.

...

Overall, if you add the percentages of players from each round that signed a second contract with the team that drafted them, that results in about 32 players per draft class. That’s comparable with the percentages from the earlier study referenced above. The two dozen ‘great’ or ‘legendary’ players from the previous study, along with about a third of the ‘good’ players.

From a team standpoint, if just one of your draft picks is extended in a second contract, that is an average draft. Extending two is a good draft, and 3 or more extraordinarily good.

...

NFL fans across the league are expecting their team to draft future Pro Bowlers, and Vikings’ fans are no different. But the reality is that drafting a Justin Jefferson is a 1% chance deal, and the more likely outcome is that 9 of 10 draft picks will either be disappointing or have little impact for the team that drafts them.

First of all, my brain is not ready to process Jmp of all people actually citing AV in a post       If THAT isn't a sign that the end times are here, I don't know what is!  

white1 wrote:You know what I don't think I have seen? What is the NFL average as far as finding quality players in each round? And by quality, any player that earns a second contract is probably the right measure.  If they can stay in the league for several years, and another team picks them up in FA, then yes my take is they are GOOD, even if the original drafting team did not commit to the second deal.

This is why I included Godchaux in my list of players who worked out. Not only is he still in the league, he's apparently played his best ball for the Pats lately.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/G/GodcDa00.htm

JMP wrote:I would say what really hurt the Dolphins in 2022 and 2023 was having limited picks.  Just 4 picks in 2023, with none in rounds 1, 4 or 5.  Just 4 picks in 2022, with none in rounds 1, 2, 5 or 6.  It's really tough to have strong drafts when you only have a a few picks and no first rounders.  Obviously the drafting needs to get back to the 2021 level for the Phins, and hopefully having early picks again will help.

IMO going into the last two drafts knowing they had limited picks was actually all the MORE reason to do extra preparation for the late round guys, and provides even less of an excuse than usual not to hit on more than one out of eight. But that might be just me.

HalCHorn wrote:Man, 2022 might contend with 2006 and 2013 for the very worst draft in Dolphins history the way things are going.  2013 is right down there given the stock to work with, but Jelani Jenkins having two decent seasons elevates it a little.

I was thinking about asking you where that draft stood on the all-time worst list in franchise history, but you saved me the trouble

BTW Jmp's findings mirror my own. A while ago a study I did of draft classes year by year on PFR indicated that only about a round to a round and a half's worth of players in any given year were actually worth taking, and the rest were either complete bums or rank and file JAGs/roster filler. And yet year after year the NFL and the media keep succeeding in getting people excited about the draft, including me who really should know better. It truly is mind blowing. Players in any given draft who merely become starters for a decade or so are actually much more rare and have much more value than you think. Don't even get me started on the number of top 10 players who were can't miss prospects...and somehow did anyway. There's a post here somewhere by me a couple of months ago pointing out to white1 just the number of first round QBs in the last 5 years or so who flopped.

HalCHorn wrote:Man, 2022 might contend with 2006 and 2013 for the very worst draft in Dolphins history the way things are going.  2013 is right down there given the stock to work with, but Jelani Jenkins having two decent seasons elevates it a little.

I was thinking about asking you where that draft stood on the all-time worst list in franchise history, but you saved me the trouble [/quote]


2006 is unlikely to be "surpassed" in my lifetime. One majority starting season out of the whole bunch. The fourth round pick didn't even make it out of camp.  Context just makes it even worse, since the two of the four or five best players in that entire draft were Whitworth and Williams, and one went in the late second and the other went in the early fifth, and both played in college for our head coach at that time, and he ignored them completely and whiffed on a guy he was unable to recruit four years earlier.  Either would have been a centerpiece in Miami.  While JJ had his failings, failing to pick guys he knew from his college days who could play wasn't one of them.

DolFan 316 wrote:BTW Jmp's findings mirror my own. A while ago a study I did of draft classes year by year on PFR indicated that only about a round to a round and a half's worth of players in any given year were actually worth taking, and the rest were either complete bums or rank and file JAGs/roster filler. And yet year after year the NFL and the media keep succeeding in geting people excited about the draft, including me who really should know better. It truly is mind blowing. Players in any given draft who merely become starters for a decade or so are actually much more rare and have much more value than you think. Don't even get me started on the number of top 10 players who were can't miss prospects...and somehow did anyway. There's a post here somewhere by me a couple of months ago pointing out to white1 just the number of first round QBs in the last 5 years or so who flopped.

Yeah, it's a really interesting topic and makes you wonder how all these "expert" scouts and GMs can be so stunningly wrong so often.

I think so much of it has to do with off-field intangibles - basically, life in general. You just don't know how a young rookie is going to react to being in a new city, living on their own possibly for the first time, having more money than they've ever had (well, before NILs...), interacting with veterans that are in some case 10+ years older, having to deal with all the off-field events, interviews, media attention, etc. that come along with being a professional athlete, and so much more. It must be a HUGE adjustment, and not everyone is ready for it or can handle it.

I also think the team that drafts you plays a big role. For example, what if Zach Wilson was drafted by, say, the Vikings in 2021? He'd get to sit for a couple of years and learn behind a very good QB, and then take over the starting job in 2024...getting ready to throw passes to the tandem of Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. Would Wilson's career have turned out differently in that scenario?

I also wonder how many players the league misses - guys that just never get a chance for whatever reason, but who may have become good NFL players in the right circumstances. Obviously there's no way to know that, but it is something I think about.

DolFan 316 wrote:First of all, my brain is not ready to process Jmp of all people actually citing AV in a post       If THAT isn't a sign that the end times are here, I don't know what is!  

I look at AV the way I look at PFF stats/rankings: not a be all, end all - more like a starting point to work from.

JMP wrote:I also think the team that drafts you plays a big role.  For example, what if Zach Wilson was drafted by, say, the Vikings in 2021?  He'd get to sit for a couple of years and learn behind a very good QB, and then take over the starting job in 2024...getting ready to throw passes to the tandem of Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison.  Would Wilson's career have turned out differently in that scenario?

Great point, bad example. You said yourself at the time that Wilson sucked and had no business getting taken anywhere near that high. Even before the end of his rookie season it had bcome laughable that THIS guy was actually taken 2nd overall behind Trevor Lawrence   If anything, Wilson is Exhibit A in how much the league as a whole overvalues the QB position. When it comes to QBs NFL teams really are like desperate women who know the ol' biological clock is ticking and end up settling for pretty much any jerk--and then act shocked that the jerk didn't change into a completely different person just for them.

There have been three drafts since I became an NFL fan in '82 that had as many as three legit franchise QBs. '83, '04 and *maybe* '18 or '20. That it--and that's only if you consider the likes of Baker Mayfield, Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert and Tua to be legit franchise QBs. Some drafts in that span did produce a couple of decent-ish QBs, and a couple produced absolutely none worth taking at all. And yet somehow, some way, all the so-called "experts" are absolutely convinced that not only are Williams, Maye and Daniels *all* at that level but that now the likes of JJ McCarthy is, too! SMH.

I also wonder how many players the league misses - guys that just never get a chance for whatever reason, but who may have become good NFL players in the right circumstances.  Obviously there's no way to know that, but it is something I think about.

Cameron Wake would like a word

JMP wrote:

DolFan 316 wrote:First of all, my brain is not ready to process Jmp of all people actually citing AV in a post       If THAT isn't a sign that the end times are here, I don't know what is!  

 I look at AV the way I look at PFF stats/rankings: not a be all, end all - more like a starting point to work from.

Oh don't get it twisted, there are many instances in which even I look at certain player season AVs with a puzzled, side-eyed glance. But overall, I just happen to think that generally, AV does get it right and that the teams with the most players above 9 AV in any given season will be the best ones, while the truly awful ones will have maybe 2 players with an AV as high as 8.

DolFan 316 wrote:

Great point, bad example. You said yourself at the time that Wilson sucked and had no business getting taken anywhere near that high. Even before the end of his rookie season it had bcome laughable that THIS guy was actually taken 2nd overall behind Trevor Lawrence   If anything, Wilson is Exhibit A in how much the league as a whole overvalues the QB position. When it comes to QBs NFL teams really are like desperate women who know the ol' biological clock is ticking and end up settling for pretty much any jerk--and then act shocked that the jerk didn't change into a completely different person just for them.

I NEVER would have gone near Zach Wilson in the first round. I did and do think he's a bad QB. But the question remains: would he have had more success on a team with better weapons, better coaches, less media scrutiny, time to sit and learn instead of being thrown to the wolves immediately, etc.? I don't know the answer, but I think its fair to assume Zach Wilson 2024 4th year Viking would be in a helluva lot better position that Zach Wilson 2024 4th year Jet.

JMP wrote:I NEVER would have gone near Zach Wilson in the first round. I did and do think he's a bad QB. But the question remains: would he have had more success on a team with better weapons, better coaches, less media scrutiny, time to sit and learn instead of being thrown to the wolves immediately, etc.?  I don't know the answer, but I think its fair to assume Zach Wilson 2024 4th year Viking would be in a helluva lot better position that Zach Wilson 2024 4th year Jet.  

Maybe. But that's precisely the trap so many GMs fall into when they truly believe other teams' busts will somehow work out for THEIR team because THIS time things will be different, you'll see! And of course it almost never actually does. I still cringe when I think about JJ bringing in Lawrence Phillips at the tail end of the '97 season.

HalCHorn wrote:2006 is unlikely to be "surpassed" in my lifetime.   One majority starting season out of the whole bunch.  The fourth round pick didn't even make it out of camp.   Context just makes it even worse, since the two of the four or five best players in that entire draft were Whitworth and Williams, and one went in the late second and the other went in the early fifth, and both played in college for our head coach at that time, and he ignored them completely and whiffed on a guy he was unable to recruit four years earlier.  Either would have been a centerpiece in Miami.  While JJ had his failings, failing to pick guys he knew from his college days who could play wasn't one of them.

Not that I'm arguing against the sheer awfulness of it (the '07 team finished 1-15 for a good reason) but somehow, some way Allen managed to lead the '10 Fins in INTs despite playing only half a season and the tied for the team lead the next season in Houston, while Fred Evans hung around the Vikings for 7 years as a rotational piece (pretty good for a 7th rounder actually) and Hagan astonishingly lasted EIGHT seasons I even recall a brief moment during the '09 season when I saw Dolfans rueing the day they let Aromashadu go because he flashed for a couple of games (literally). I swear, this actually happened.

Even THOSE meager contributions are more than a least 6 of the last 8 players from these past 2 Fins drafts have managed or seemingly ever will. Yes, I'm giving credit to Thompson for at least starting a few games and he did "win" the '23 finale to get them into the playoffs then amazingly didn't get blown out in Barfalo. IMO nobody from the '22 draft will be in the league 4 years from now, let alone on this team.

Oh, and '95. The abject horror of '95 But you and I have discussed that abomination of a draft a few times before.

Speaking of Kyle Williams, is it just me or is anybody else getting that kind of vibe from Fiske this year? I'd hate it if the Bills took him. I know I know, short arms yada yada but Williams was just 6'1", am I supposed to believe he had long arms?

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/W/WillKy20.htm

DolFan 316 wrote:

JMP wrote:I NEVER would have gone near Zach Wilson in the first round. I did and do think he's a bad QB. But the question remains: would he have had more success on a team with better weapons, better coaches, less media scrutiny, time to sit and learn instead of being thrown to the wolves immediately, etc.?  I don't know the answer, but I think its fair to assume Zach Wilson 2024 4th year Viking would be in a helluva lot better position that Zach Wilson 2024 4th year Jet.  

Maybe. But that's precisely the trap so many GMs fall into when they truly believe other teams' busts will somehow work out for THEIR team because THIS time things will be different, you'll see! And of course it almost never actually does. I still cringe when I think about JJ bringing in Lawrence Phillips at the tail end of the '97 season.

Yeah, but that's part of my point...if you get drafted by the "right" team, it could change the entire trajectory of your career. But once you get off to a bad start to your career, it's difficult (and maybe impossible, at least for first round bust QBs) to get on track. Again, maybe Zach Wilson could have had a long career as a viable #2 QB (even if he never developed into a starter) if he had been drafted by another team and put in a better position to succeed...but after the Jets debacle, the team literally can't even give him away and his career is all but over.

I'm all for cheap, low-risk reclamation projects - even knowing that they rarely work out - because there's always a chance. As we've seen, it isn't easy to find good players - so it's worth a shot in some cases IMO.

Anyway, this is a rabbit hole that we'll never get out of...I'll just leave it that most draft picks end up sucking. LOL

I'll take Zach Wilson behind Tua. Yes, I would like to see what McDaniel can do with him. Without the pressure, with Tua starting, and with our offense and weapons.

white1 wrote:I'll take Zach Wilson behind Tua.  Yes, I would like to see what McDaniel can do with him. Without the pressure, with Tua starting, and with our offense and weapons.

I really want no part of Zach. But if he gets cut, I suppose I wouldn't complain about having experienced competition for Skylar Thompson at the #3 spot.

Speaking of players the Dolphins drafted:

--I started a thread about the Phins announcing that they are exercising 5th year options for Phillips and Waddle.
--In Grier's press conference today, he said this about Holland's status: "He's an important piece; we'll be talking to him here in the future."
--Grier had this to say about Tua's contract: "We’ve had communication. It’s been good. So we’ll keep working toward this. He and his agent are understanding that we are focused on the draft at the moment. We’ll get together after."

All situations to keep an eye on...