Trading up - just say no

i can't help but think about the Dion Jordan and Liam Eichenberg trades.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2024/story/_/id/39964243/nfl-draft-seven-cliches-trading-why-flawed-process

hopefully Miami doesn't fall into any of these traps again this year.

Article from The Athletic saying the exact same thing.

https://theathletic.com/5416007/2024/04/16/nfl-drafting-methods-insight-massey-thaler/?source=user_shared_article

Couple highlights:
- only team that religiously trades down (like you should) is Baltimore. Philosophy started and extended by Ozzie Newsome
- Spielman followed it with Minnesota - they were a good solid team under him
- analytics are eye popping. Across all rounds - no player is more likely to succeed than the player picked behind them - the rate is 53 percent which is essentially a coin flip.

The more picks, the better. Of course, I've given hints before that this is my philosophy :-)

I have long said where a player goes is just as important in whether they succeed in the NFL or not.

Zach Wilson with Andy Reid might have turned out far better than Wilson with the collection of goobers the Jets assemble for Coaches.

Another MAJOR FACTOR IMO is the speed of the game. Just because a player excels in college does not mean they will succeed in the NFL where the speed of the game is like an order of magnitude different.

Some players need extra-good coaching to get them to the level where they can adjust to the speed of the game and get coached out of the bad habits they had in college where they were the alphas and in the NFL, they are just another player.

The draft is a crapshoot (50/50) at best so it is important to MAXIMIZE the Value of the picks. I have never understood why/how Grier rates his draft board, but hopefully the Phins come out of this draft with AT LEAST TWO legitimate starters and a couple of others who vie for playing time. And if just happen to be Olinemen, so much the better!

Great posts by everyone here.

I'm not against trading up, especially for a QB, but if you're going to do it you'd better be right!

Most of the time - especially this year - I think trading down is the way to go. Acquiring more draft picks increases the chances that you'll get a hit.

I'm not against trading up, especially for a QB, but if you're going to do it you'd better be right!

This is probably the exception to the rule. Yes, if the team has their eyes set on a franchise QB and can make a deal to go get him, by all means do it!

Outside of that. Trade DOWN and get more picks.

Another point in the article I found fascinating: In an environment where competitors are very close in aptitude, luck plays a more outsized role in who hits and who misses. So there again - make more picks not less, and your odds improve of hitting on good or great players.

I agree that the Fins shouldn't trade up. THIS year.

But you know who was a master of the trade down? Jimmy Johnson. And it never got him squat. In '98 he decided to willingly trade his way right out of Randy Moss because apparently it was more important to take...John Avery.

But...but what about Zach, JT and Madison, I can already see some of you typing? Glad you asked that. Yes, Zach was selected with JJ's third pick of the 5th round but guess what--that was the original pick all along! He traded down multiple times for the other two.

Madison and JT were also taken with the team's original 2nd and 3rd round picks the next year. In other words, JJ got all three without any trading at all.

In fact in his first two drafts JJ stayed right where he was in the first round believe it or not. Instead of, say, Yatil Green in '97 I think I can speak for all of us when I say it would've been nice for him to trade up two spots for Tony Gonzalez. (Whispers.) Two spots...It was only in his third draft that JJ suddenly decided it was vitally important to trade down from 19 to 29 so he could let some other team nab Moss. As an added bonus the Packers took Vonnie Holliday at 19--the defensive player JJ had publicly stated was his favorite in that draft on that side of the ball!

Then in '99 he thought it would be cool to trade down twice in the first right out of the round so his first pick of that draft could be...JJ Johnson. Yeah. Somehow trading up (for the first time ever) for Rob Konrad didn't make up for those other boneheaded blunders.

Oh BTW the Chiefs traded up 17 spots for Mahomes, seems to have worked out pretty well for them. The next year the Bills traded up for Josh Allen.

I've sad it before and I will again: bad drafting teams are going to draft badly, regardless of the number of picks they have. The Rams got a boatload of picks for Eric Dickerson in '87...and ended up being one of the worst teams of the '90s. The Browns famously loaded up on draft picks after getting an analytics nerd for a GM...and promptly finished 1-31 over two seasons. The '92 Colts somehow finagled the first two picks of the draft...and blew them both.

The problem with Grier isn't having enough picks, I've pointed out repeatedly how much better his drafts over the last 3 years could've been with the exact same amount of capital. Anyway the real issue isn't trading up, but trading away picks repeatedly for cap-crippling players. The again the Rams won a Super Bowl by doing that same thing so...

Also, here's a link detailing every draft transaction ever. Seriously. Hal was generous enough to share it with me and now I'm paying it forward. You can see for yourself among other things just how pointless all of JJ's trade downs generally were.

https://www.prosportstransactions.com/football/DraftTrades/Years/

Preach on, DF316!

More picks for Grier will just make him strive harder to pick another Iggy!

Jordan Trade by Ireland is the reason he hasn't been a GM since we Fired Him. This Draft has trading down written all over it especially if they want to go OL .

finfanatic wrote:

More picks for Grier will just make him strive harder to pick another Iggy!

Or, he can draft another Phillips, Holland, Achane, Waddle...

DolFan 316 wrote:
I've sad it before and I will again: bad drafting teams are going to draft badly, regardless of the number of picks they have.

Great stuff all around, 316.  This sentence really nails it...some teams just can't draft, and it's an organization-wide issue.

DolFan 316 wrote:I agree that the Fins shouldn't trade up. THIS year.

But you know who was a master of the trade down? Jimmy Johnson. And it never got him squat. In '98 he decided to willingly trade his way right out of Randy Moss because apparently it was more important to take...John Avery.

But...but what about Zach, JT and Madison, I can already see some of you typing? Glad you asked that. Yes, Zach was selected with JJ's third pick of the 5th round but guess what--that was the original pick all along! He traded down multiple times for the other two.

Madison and JT were also taken with the team's original 2nd and 3rd round picks the next year. In other words, JJ got all three without any trading at all.

In fact in his first two drafts JJ stayed right where he was in the first round believe it or not. Instead of, say, Yatil Green in '97 I think I can speak for all of us when I say it would've been nice for him to trade up two spots for Tony Gonzalez. (Whispers.) Two spots...It was only in his third draft that JJ suddenly decided it was vitally important to trade down from 19 to 29 so he could let some other team nab Moss. As an added bonus the Packers took Vonnie Holliday at 19--the defensive player JJ had publicly stated was his favorite in that draft on that side of the ball!

Then in '99 he thought it would be cool to trade down twice in the first right out of the round so his first pick of that draft could be...JJ Johnson. Yeah. Somehow trading up (for the first time ever) for Rob Konrad didn't make up for those other boneheaded blunders.

Oh BTW the Chiefs traded up 17 spots for Mahomes, seems to have worked out pretty well for them. The next year the Bills traded up for Josh Allen.

I've sad it before and I will again: bad drafting teams are going to draft badly, regardless of the number of picks they have. The Rams got a boatload of picks for Eric Dickerson in '87...and ended up being one of the worst teams of the '90s. The Browns famously loaded up on draft picks after getting an analytics nerd for a GM...and promptly finished 1-31 over two seasons. The '92 Colts somehow finagled the first two picks of the draft...and blew them both.

The problem with Grier isn't having enough picks, I've pointed out repeatedly how much better his drafts over the last 3 years could've been with the exact same amount of capital. Anyway the real issue isn't trading up, but trading away picks repeatedly for cap-crippling players. The again the Rams won a Super Bowl by doing that same thing so...

Also, here's a link detailing every draft transaction ever. Seriously. Hal was generous enough to share it with me and now I'm paying it forward. You can see for yourself among other things just how pointless all of JJ's trade downs generally were.

https://www.prosportstransactions.com/football/DraftTrades/Years/

the heavens opened and the sun beamed through. the sound of cherubs filled the air. and the mortals gazed upon the sky as knowledge rained down upon them. Pharaoh raised his staff and proclaimed, "So it is written, so shall it be done."

NICE job DF!!