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Is Ajayi better than his stats?

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Is Ajayi better than his stats? Empty Is Ajayi better than his stats?

Post by mercury22nathan Wed May 25, 2016 10:34 am

make what you will of it...

Will be there any drop-off from Miller, whose 4.5 rushing average was tied for 15th in the league, to Ajayi, whose 3.8 would have tied for 35th if he had enough carries to qualify?

Sidelined the first seven games last season with a cracked rib, Ajayi rushed for 8.2 and 8.0 yards per carry on a combined 11 attempts in his first two games. But he fell off dramatically, averaging no more than 3.3 per carry in six of his final seven games and rushing for two yards on seven carries in the finale against New England.

But ESPN’s KC Joyner, who analyzed all of Ajayi’s 49 carries, tells me that pedestrian per-carry average is misleading. Joyner said Ajayi received bad blocking on 71 percent of his carries, among the highest (or worst) in the NFL. He averaged 1.9 yards per rush on those plays with poor blocking, better than the 1.2 league average.

When Ajayi got good blocking, he averaged 9.0 yards per carry, better than both Miller's and the league's "good blocking" average, Joyner said. With Miami’s offensive line seemingly improved, Ajayi’s per-carry average should get a boost.

The Dolphins believe he’s closer to the player who averaged 5.6 yards per carry at Boise State and was a beast in the red zone, with 50 touchdown runs. Gase likes his shiftiness and ability to make decisive cuts.

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Is Ajayi better than his stats? Empty Re: Is Ajayi better than his stats?

Post by JMP Wed May 25, 2016 12:00 pm

Tough to really say anything definitive on just 49 carries, and 'good' vs. 'bad' blocking is often in the eye of the beholder.  I also think some of his bigger runs were draw plays in long-yardage situations, though my memory may be inaccurate on that.

From what I saw last season, Ajayi looked very tentative and indecisive when there wasn't a clear hole...too much dancing and hesitation.  Didn't use his size to advantage, and I did not see any shiftiness and thought he ran too upright.  I saw a lot of straight-ahead running...not much cutting or avoiding defenders.  Also, I saw no indication that he can block...though I don't think the Phins asked him to block too often.  Overall, I saw him as a very average runner.  Some of that could be chalked up to being a rookie and missing camp, but I just didn't see anything impressive.

As I've said, I think Ajayi will excel as a receiver - that's where his true value lies IMO.  I don't expect much as a runner.  If and when the Phins sign Arian Foster and he gets into playing shape, I fully expect him to take the #1 job away from Ajayi.

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