Miami Draft Options - QB

by white1 Tue Mar 05, 2019 9:37 am

Thought I'd re-post this article to be sure anyone who missed it has a chance to take a look.

An excellent read with a solid statistical methodology for predicting college QB success in the NFL.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-nfl-is-drafting-quarterbacks-all-wrong/

Here's the upshot. As expected, Murray has a very high probability of becoming an above-average NFL QB. The model predicts a 97% chance he develops into a top-15 QB.

Interestingly, the "other" first round picks are far less likely to become viable NFL starting QBs. Haskins is predicted to have a 63% chance of panning out. Drew Lock and Daniel Jones are far more likely to bust than succeed.

Obviously, we don't have the benefit of interviewing the prospects to get insight into their IQ and personality. However, based on stats alone, it looks like the most sure bet after Murray is off the board (and possibly draft-able in the 2nd or even 3rd round) is Will Grier. Behind him, both Finley and Ta'amu have a better chance of success than Haskins.

In other words, get ready. If the Fins "reach" for Lock or Jones with pick 13.... it's just more of the same from the new brain trust. Here's the relevant piece from the article:

Other surprises from the consensus top-four prospects are the rankings of Duke’s Daniel Jones and Missouri’s Drew Lock — both of whom completed fewer passes than we would expect, and both of whom were assigned a low probability of NFL success. Teams should probably be very wary of both players. Since 2011, college QB prospects with completion percentages under expected — a list that includes Brock Osweiler, Trevor Siemian, Mike Glennon, Matt McGloin and Jacoby Brissett — have all failed to post career yards per attempt above the league average of 7.1. Meanwhile West Virginia’s Will Grier — a player few experts have mocked to go in the first round — looks to be the second-best QB prospect of the class. With his excellent college production and nearly prototypical size at 6-foot-3 and 217 pounds, Grier is a player whose stock could rise with a good performance on and off the field at the combine.

by mercury22nathan Tue Mar 05, 2019 9:56 am

i'm not sure i can believe a QB evaluation metric that is telling me that Johnny Manziel, Jameis Winston and Kellen Moore all had a significantly higher predicted probability than Jared Goff. i think QB evaluation is so much more than just stats.

by white1 Tue Mar 05, 2019 10:02 am

i'm not sure i can believe a QB evaluation metric that is telling me that Johnny Manziel, Jameis Winston and Kellen Moore all had a significantly higher predicted probability than Jared Goff. i think QB evaluation is so much more than just stats.

As always, there are outliers in any model. However, a 75% prediction accuracy rate is impressive. Manziel is a great example. The model does not know that regardless of his college performance, he loves to party all night, is a drug addict, and has no where near the work ethic required to succeed in the NFL. All of these things are easily predictable through interviewing the player, coaches and team mates. In other words, Cleveland should have known better.

Winston and Moore look to be outliers. However, regarding Goff, it was startling how poorly his play became when Gurley was nicked up late in the season. Will this kind of performance represent a reversion to the mean for Goff as defenses figure out the McVay system, and how it plays to his strengths? Or was it just a bump in the road for Goff? Time will tell.

by DolFan 316 Tue Mar 05, 2019 12:45 pm

Also remember that Goff's rookie season was historically awful. But then again, so were those of Alex Smith and Terry Bradshaw. I'll go ahead and write off Goff though, based on the Super Bowl. There's just no fucking way in the second decade of the 21st century that ANY team should be held to 3 points in a Super Bowl. I just can't get past that and never will.

Also, Haskins should have 50% knocked off his chances due to being from Ohio St. Seriously, it should be integrated into the formula. That school has literally never produced an NFL QB worth a damn. It would literally be the mother of all outliers if Haskins was the first.

by finfanatic Tue Mar 05, 2019 2:03 pm

DF316 wrote:There's just no fucking way in the second decade of the 21st century that ANY team should be held to 3 points in a Super Bowl. I just can't get past that and never will.

Somehow, someway, Belicheat has found a way to cheat again. How, I don't know, but no way the Rams are THAT bad and the Pats that good IMHO! Shocked

It is tough to PROJECT a college player into the NFL. I have always thought two things beyond the intangibles went into making a good NFL QB; arm strength (talent) and timing (read and recognize ability).

The change in the speed of the game from college to the pros is drastic, and some guys who were college superstars, just cannot play at the accelerated level needed in the NFL. Same with arm strength/arm talent. Where in college, you could float one out and the DB was not able to get there, in the NFL, even the crappy DBs are better than the average college DB.

I can watch a game and tell when a QB is throwing on time, with anticipation, and leading his receivers, and when he is not. The difference is HUGE. A qb who has the arm strength/talent to get the ball out on time and in rhythm is something an offense can be built around. Without it, you get what the Phins have had for years...mediocrity or outright suckitude.

On Grier: I only watched him when he was at Florida, but he had the timing thing down. He made McIlWain's offense work. Luke Del Rio nor any of the other QBs were able to do that to the extent Grier did. Grier's arm strength is average IMO, but his read/recognize/rhythm/timing were above average IMO.

by Degarmo Tue Mar 05, 2019 3:09 pm

I look for safety reads, look offs, velocity, accuracy, and moxie, i.e. the gunslinger mentality. In the NFL, guys are rarely open like they are in college, so you need a guy that will throw it in a crowd accurately.

As much as I've tried to fool myself with some of our QBs, we haven't had anyone with those skills since Marino. We've had guys with some of them, but they never put it all together, and there is zero reason to try to "develop" a guy. They've either got it or they don't. It's very rare that a guy develops any of these traits later on.

by **JMP** Tue Mar 05, 2019 7:19 pm

It's definitely difficult, almost impossible, to determine which college QBs will be good in the NFL. I like to first look at completion %. That is obviously not a "be all, end all" stat, but a low completion % is an immediate red flag and you need to figure out why it's so low. The next thing I look at is winning percentage. A low winning % is another red flag, and again the reason why it's low must be answered.

As far as actually watching the player, ball placement is huge. Are the passes hitting receivers in stride consistently, is the ball going to the right spot on timing plays, are receivers consistently catching the ball "easily" or are they often having to fight for it, etc. Obviously this is all part of accuracy.

Footwork, throwing motion and basic mechanics are important...but as we see with Rodgers and Mahomes there isn't necessarily a such thing as "correct" mechanics.

Pocket awareness, movement in the pocket and footwork in general are HUGE.

Body language is also big...you can tell right away if a QB is a leader or just another guy on the team.

I also put a lot of weight on arm strength. You don't need a cannon, but no noodle arms please.

Anyway, looking at this draft...I'm not seeing all that much that gets me excited. We have no shot at Murray or Haskins, I don't like Daniel Jones at all, and there's something that bugs me about Drew Lock.

There's a lot to like about Easton Stick, but he looks like he needs some time in the weight room. Still, if I can get him in the 4th or 5th I'd definitely take a flyer.

I'm intrigued by Tyree Jackson, but in this new Dolphins offense I just don't think he'd ever be accurate enough. The track record of ultra-tall QBs is not good in the NFL.

Guys like Jarrett Stidham, Ryan Finley and Kyle Shurmur are somewhat intriguing, but I'm not sold on any of them as long-term starters. Will Grier has a noodle arm

I don't know...seems like a bad time to need a QB. I'd be OK with Tyrod Taylor if we're looking for a veteran, but part of me thinks we should just roll with Jake Rudock and see what happens - and look to make a big push for Tua in 2020.

by white1 Tue Mar 05, 2019 7:35 pm

but part of me thinks we should just roll with Jake Rudock and see what happens - and look to make a big push for Tua in 2

That would actually be a lot of fun going with a total unknown. Talk about a breath of fresh air!

Of course he could be and likely will be worse but who cares? Different player with different strengths and weaknesses. And maybe he improves with experience

by HalCHorn Wed Mar 06, 2019 11:32 pm

Just not that sold on any of the options this year, but two kinda intrigue me IF the price is right.

The Big 12 has been a good place to find QB's in recent years: Mayfield, Mahomes... So if I could get Grier in the third or later I would be intrigued. I'm still mad that Miami didn't take a third round shot on Rudolph last year. As jmp notes, there are arm strength questions with Grier.

The other option I would like in the later rounds is Brett Rypien.

I'd still prefer seeing if Bridgewater can be had in FA.

As for our options on the roster? See if Falk can develop. See if Gase wants to give up a late rounder for his project Fales. See how fast you can get Osweiler and Tanny out of town.

by **JMP** Thu Mar 07, 2019 11:48 am

HalCHorn wrote:
As for our options on the roster? See if Falk can develop. See if Gase wants to give up a late rounder for his project Fales. See how fast you can get Osweiler and Tanny out of town.

I'm curious to know how the new coaching staff feels about Luke Falk. My guess is they're not too high on him, because they brought in their own developmental prospect in Jake Rudock. But I guess we'll see how that plays out once practices and camps start. From what I've read, Rudock seems very coachable and he put up good numbers in pre-season...against scrubs, but still. Here are his stats, on 85 pass attempts in 4 games last pre-season:
68.2 completion %
3 TDs
0 INTs
1 rushing TDs
91.5 QBR
Sacked 2 times

In contrast, here are Falk's pre-season numbers (58 pass attempts in 4 games):
55.2 completion %
1 TD
1 INT
0 rushing TDs
67.9 QBR
Sacked 7 times

Meaningless, really, but still worth noting.

I believe Fales is an unrestricted free agent, so unfortunately we can't trade him. I think Osweiler is also a FA, so thankfully we can forget all about him.

by finfanatic Thu Mar 07, 2019 1:10 pm

Is Rudock the guy who was in Cleveland last year? On Hard Knocks?

If any of these developmental guys is starting next year, the whole season is most definitely a

"Tank for Tua" season NO DOUBT!!!!

by **JMP** Thu Mar 07, 2019 2:08 pm

I didn't see the last Hard Knocks, but Rudock was a Detroit Lion.

by **JMP** Thu Mar 07, 2019 2:32 pm

Article (fluff piece) about Rudock:
https://www.palmbeachpost.com/sports/20190306/miami-dolphins-qb-jake-rudock-of-weston-excited-to-compete

It went a bit under the radar, but depending on who the Dolphins sign or draft in the coming months, Rudock, who grew up in Weston and played at Fort Lauderdale-St. Thomas Aquinas, Iowa and Michigan, may have a chance to compete to play.

“The Dolphins have always been his team,” said Ken Mastrole, Rudock’s personal quarterbacks coach. “Detroit wanted him back. But there were a lot of teams that liked him. He’s excited.”

Rudock, 26, has thrown only five passes since he was a sixth-round pick of the Lions in 2016. But Dolphins assistant head coach and quarterbacks coach Jim Caldwell was head coach of Detroit when Rudock was selected.

“Jake is one of those guys that I think improves and improves daily,” Caldwell said. “He works extremely hard. He’s smart. I’m excited about seeing him now.”

Caldwell suggested reporters seek comment from Dolphins tight ends coach George Godsey, who was Rudock’s quarterbacks coach in Detroit last season.

“He’s attentive,” Godsey said. “He’s very detailed, works hard. He’s going to be a good asset to bring in here. He’s competitive, so he’ll go out there and earn it on the field. He’s from down here, too, so that probably helps. He knows the location. He’s a hard-worker.”

At the moment, Rudock and Luke Falk are the Dolphins’ quarterbacks, with Ryan Tannehill set to be traded, or, more likely released soon. There is a chance Miami could re-sign David Fales or add another veteran quarterback to bridge the gap to an eventual rookie starter.

But don’t discount the possibility that Rudock and/or Falk could end up starting some games in Miami’s rebuild season.

...

Rudock’s career began at Iowa but he had his best season under coach Jim Harbaugh at Michigan. Harbaugh affectionately said Rudock was “tough as a two-dollar steak,” “tough as nails” and “hard as hen’s teeth.” Who knew hens had hard teeth?

Rudock has had some good NFL preseason moments and figures to get a similar opportunity with Miami.

“He’s a starter in the NFL,” Mastrole said. “I believe it. He has the capabilities to start for a franchise. He has what you need for the NFL, quick processor. He understands how to simplify the game. Even if Miami drafts a first-rounder (Rudock) will be an extension of the coaching staff. Guys like Jake, they’re willing to share with the younger guys and he’ll compete. He gives you some athletic ability. He can move around. He displayed that. Plenty of arm strength and intangibles. He fits what they do in New England. (Miami) wants a quarterback that is smart, can see the field, understand protections and make changes. They’re ready for the matchups and the protections.”

When he entered the NFL Draft, scouts noted Rudock steadily improved, displayed sound mechanics and decision-making.

Last month, Grier said Miami had kept tabs on the South Florida product.

“The thing that we had liked, and the previous staff did as well, is that he was smart,” Grier said. “He’s a big kid (6-foot-3), can throw the ball and he’s smart. He’s been in a similar offense.”

by Degarmo Thu Mar 07, 2019 4:30 pm

I don't know about Tua. I'm not sure he's going to be a good NFL QB. I'm more interested in Super Thor Jesus from Clemson.

by rightchea Thu Mar 07, 2019 9:47 pm

Miami waiting next year to draft a QB means that they have no faith in the QB this season or really like the edge rusher and other position that are available out there. Finding a QB in the FA seems to be highly unlikely if they want them cheap unless they get colt Mccoy or Josh Johnson

by mercury22nathan Fri Mar 08, 2019 8:07 am

JMP wrote:There's a lot to like about Easton Stick, but he looks like he needs some time in the weight room. Still, if I can get him in the 4th or 5th I'd definitely take a flyer.

apparently you're not the only one who has an interest in Mr. Stick.

Easton Stick, a talented draft-eligible quarterback from North Dakota State, has been on Miami’s radar for a while. The Dolphins sent a scout to watch him in August practices.

https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/barry-jackson/article226512285.html

by **JMP** Fri Mar 08, 2019 11:13 am

I first learned of Stick from Chris Kouffman...he loves Stick and has posted a bunch of videos on twitter - Chris Kouffman (@ckparrot). I might even consider Stick in round 3 for fear of losing him.

As far as Tua, I think he is the real deal. Best QB prospect since Luck. He's only started one year, so I'm interested to see how he progresses in year 2...but his skillset is off the charts. He single-handedly transformed that 'bama offense, literally overnight. But yes - Super Thor Jesus (ha!!!) appears to be even better than Tua!

by **JMP** Fri Mar 08, 2019 11:16 am

rightchea wrote:Miami waiting next year to draft a QB means that they have no faith in the QB this season or really like the edge rusher and other position that are available out there. Finding a QB in the FA seems to be highly unlikely if they want them cheap unless they get colt Mccoy or Josh Johnson

Yep. It's just a bad year to need a QB.

by DolFan 316 Fri Mar 08, 2019 1:55 pm

So you're saying Stick really does have a stick thin body? (Sorry, couldn't resist Razz

)

And thank God I'm not a diabetic because reading that bit about Rudock would've killed me otherwise Shocked

Where's the barf emoticon when you need it?

The sad part is, the Fins might *have* to draft a QB this year because they'll need *somebody* after letting Tanny go. Unless they keep him after all, which would be far worse at this point. Then again, what better way to tank than having not one, but TWO QBs battling for the starting job who were already rejected by the teams that drafted them in the low rounds? Maybe this time around they'll actually do it properly unlike the totally botched fiasco of 2011, which I am still salty about to this day Evil or Very Mad

by **JMP** Fri Mar 08, 2019 2:03 pm

LOL "stick thin". Funny, but true...some time in an NFL weight room will be huge for him.

Too bad we're dumping our free agent defensive end bust...we could have had a Stick and a Branch on the same team! jocolor

Anyway...yes, that Rudock article was absurd. It's good to hear about an unknown player, but man, that piece made him sound like a sure-fire All Pro!

It will be interesting to see what the Phins end up doing at QB for this season...I literally have no idea what the plan is.

by DolFan 316 Fri Mar 08, 2019 2:04 pm

JMP wrote:Too bad we're dumping our free agent defensive end bust...we could have had a Stick and a Branch on the same team!

That made me Laughing

at a time when I desperately need to feel better about *something*. Thanks! Very Happy

by Degarmo Fri Mar 08, 2019 3:17 pm

by **JMP** Fri Mar 08, 2019 3:51 pm

That is pure awesome.

by DolFan 316 Fri Mar 08, 2019 5:11 pm

JMP wrote:

That is pure awesome.

Posts like that make me really wish this place had a "like" option. I actually found myself searching for one for a second! Laughing

by Degarmo Fri Mar 08, 2019 11:47 pm

He went to NDSU, his parents have to be hockey fans. How ironic this must all be for them.

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"Tank for Tua" season NO DOUBT!!!!

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