Game Thoughts: Week 1, Dolphins at Patriots

You know what’s great?  A blowout win, where your team completely dominates the opposition and there’s never any question of the outcome. 
 
You know what is just as great?  Winning a game that you thought you were going to lose, and watching your team show tremendous heart and drive and constantly work to grind out an unlikely victory.
 
Earlier this week, I called this a statement game for the Miami Dolphins.  And I was right.  However, I thought the statement would be something like, “We came, we saw, we kicked their ass!”  But instead, the statement was more along the lines of “We will fight till death – never give up!”
 
In many, ways today’s 17-16 nail-biting win was better than a blowout victory.  It was a total team effort, with a bend-don’t-break defense and an offense that chipped away and never gave up.
 
Everyone wanted to focus on Tua vs. Mac, but the real story of this game turned out to be, for me, a Dolphins defense that kept getting pushed around but kept fighting.  The Patriots racked up almost 400 yards, held the ball for almost 37 minutes, and converted an unreal 11 of 16 third down plays.  But despite all that, the Dolphin defense kept them out of the endzone.  The Patriots scored just 6 points in the second half, and as they drove downfield for a potential game-winning drive the Dolphin defense shut them down with an Xavien Howard forced fumble.  This Miami team has no quit, and they play as a team – that’s the takeaway from today.
 
There’s no need to talk about individual performances, because for the Dolphins, it was pretty ugly.  But what we saw today was a TEAM – both coaching staff and players – that did whatever it took to win.  The coaching staff pulled out all the stops, running wildcat plays, direct snaps to RBs, utilizing Jacoby Brissett as a short-yardage weapon…you name it, they did it.  I think that’s the motto of this team: “whatever it takes”.  Just win, baby…ugly wins and pretty wins count the same.
 
One final note: this new-look Dolphins offense only managed 2 TDs and 17 points, but it looks vastly different than last year.  Today, we saw an offense that was throwing the ball downfield consistently, and we saw an offense that converted short yardage situations.  Once everyone continues to get their timing down, I can see this being a high-flying, high-scoring offense.  It may not happen right away, but it’s coming.
 
We’re 1-0, with a road division win, and ugly is beautiful!!!!
 

Hero of the Day: Xavien Howard, for sealing the victory with a HUGE forced fumble late in the game as the Patriots were driving to take the lead.  It doesn’t get any bigger than that.

Goat of the Day: I hate to single anyone out after the win today, but rookie Liam Eichenberg got the start at left tackle, and was pretty brutal.  He allowed a big sack on 3^rd down in the first half, and late in the game his holding penalty negated a key big run by Tua.  Eich has a bright future, but he made too many mistakes today.

(Ahem.)

https://dolfancave.forumotion.com/t2363-predictions-for-game-1

Fins win 13-10. All the talk afterwards will be about how Tua didn't light up the Pats D, and the Watson talk will only intensify.

Everyone else predicted a blowout except me and CC (sort of). At least they won and Flores can get the 0 and whatever monkey off his back.

I'm going to enjoy the W. In long Fin's history this was a loss. The Pat's would've went right down and scored. Lot's to clean up but always take a sloppy W over a heartbreaking L.

No need for Watson talk...he's going to end up in jail while Tua will continue to win games! 

And of course the Woke Network For Global Tyranny's headline is..."Mac Jones impresses in debut, but New England Patriots fall to Miami Dolphins". Whatever

I will be a' scurrying to PFR to find out if the Fins have ever held the ball for less time in a win. I'm pretty sure they have at least twice VS the Jets but maybe not ever against this team.

Degarmo would've loved the irony of the Pats holding the ball for ages and losing considering how we all met.

JEGnj wrote:I'm going to enjoy the W. In long Fin's history this was a loss. The Pat's would've went right down and scored. Lot's to clean up but always take a sloppy W over a heartbreaking L.

Absolutely.  This would have been a loss in almost any other season, but




Enjoy the sweet taste of victory!!

JMP wrote:No need for Watson talk...he's going to end up in jail while Tua will continue to win games! 

Will he? Has there been any word on that situation? Last I checked the NFL was refusing to suspend him. For moral reasons I'm sure

DolFan 316 wrote:

JMP wrote:No need for Watson talk...he's going to end up in jail while Tua will continue to win games! 

Will he? Has there been any word on that situation? Last I checked the NFL was refusing to suspend him. For moral reasons I'm sure

Last I heard was that the police investigation should be completed in October/November.  Not sure why the NFL hasn't done anything, when they suspended Zeke Elliott immediately for less.

JMP wrote:Last I heard was that the police investigation should be completed in October/November.  Not sure why the NFL hasn't done anything, when they suspended Zeke Elliott immediately for less.

The "official" copout--I mean, reason they're using is that since the Texans are paying him not to play they don't have to do anything. Which is weak as fuck.

BTW just checked PFR and while their data is a bit sketchy (no listed time of possession for games prior to 1983) the games listed since then show that this is indeed the lowest TOP the Fins have had in a win over the Pats since then, at least.

EDIT: There are 9 other wins since '83 in which the Fins had the ball for less time. (They had the ball for 23:17 today and 23:19 in the Fake Spike game.) If you aren't subscribed to Stathead you might not be able to view the link, unfortunately.

https://stathead.com/football/tgl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=game&order_by_asc=1&order_by=time_of_poss&year_min=1983&game_type=R&game_num_min=0&game_num_max=99&week_num_min=0&week_num_max=99&game_result=W&temperature_gtlt=lt&team_id=mia

This is also the most the Pats have ever outgained the Fins in a loss.

https://stathead.com/football/tgl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=game&order_by_asc=1&order_by=tot_yds_diff&game_type=R&ccomp%5B1%5D=lt&cval%5B1%5D=-100&cstat%5B1%5D=tot_yds_diff&game_num_min=0&game_num_max=99&week_num_min=0&week_num_max=99&game_result=W&temperature_gtlt=lt&team_id=mia&opp_id=nwe

Crazy stats!  I love it...beating the Patriots in nearly impossible fashion!

Important to note that the Phins had only 2 red zone trips today...and scored 2 TDs.  The Pats had 4 red zone trips...and scored 1 TD.  As bad as the D was at times, they kept the Patriots out of the endzone - and that was the difference in the game.

One thing that gives me hope (for this team anyway) is that Flores has an established pattern of starting seasons badly. If he can actually win while being his usual slow starting self, that'll be the difference between making and missing the playoffs. Remember, this team began 0-2 VS the Pats and Bills last season when 1-1 would've landed them a postseason gig. I figure just like the previous two Flores teams this one will get better as things move along.

Also as far as shaky wins go, this one might not even crack the top 5 list of Gase wins. Seriously. I've never seen a coach whose team got outplayed so badly so many times and still somehow come out on top. That was pretty much how 90-95% of Gase's wins in Miami went!

Great point and I will add / one of the most important stats is situational - both third down and red zone defense

Btw I’ll add R Davis was hurt very early, and we seemed to get they it just fine. He was on the sideline so hoping he’s back, I think he will be.a monster this year

That Gase playoff team could easily have been like 4-12 or something. Probably the luckiest Dolphins team ever.

But yes, I was thinking the same thing about Flores and the previous slow starts.  The first Patriots game last season was actually very similar to this one - with the difference being that this time, we didn't give up TDs.

white1 wrote:Great point and I will add / one of the most important stats is situational - both third down and red zone defense

Btw I’ll add R Davis was hurt very early, and we seemed to get they it just fine. He was on the sideline so hoping he’s back, I think he will be.a monster this year

Yeah, Davis had his helmet on and it seemed like he was lobbying to get back in...so I'm thinking he's OK.  That is one player we cannot afford to lose.

On another note, I am curious to see snap counts.  I didn't notice D-lineman Adam Butler today...wondering if he even played much??

Miami won a game it should have lost. This is a good and bad scenario. I feel we were outplayed. Typically when you are out played you lose. I wanted a big win not just a win. Still worried about Tua's ability. That wasn't put to rest.

JMP wrote:That Gase playoff team could easily have been like 4-12 or something. Probably the luckiest Dolphins team ever.

Not sure about 4-12 but according to PFR they "should've" finished 8-8/7-9.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/mia/2016.htm

Then again maybe that evens things out a bit since the infamous '07 team finished THREE wins worse than they should have and lost a whopping SIX games by 3 points

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/mia/2007.htm

It was Gase's two post-playoff teams that were lucky not to be 4-12 or worse, although PFR has both their expected wins at 5. I think the problem with PFR is that while they go by point differential to measure how good a team "really" is, they aren't advanced enough yet to break wins down further than that to see how many times Gase's teams got lucky despite being outgained by well over 100 yards, having 10 first downs or less, etc.

No question. Hoping Tua will get better as the rat if the team does also - but no guarantee at this point

I had no issues with Tua today.  Everyone said he couldn't throw deep and had a weak arm - he answered both of those questions positively today.  This offense is very much a work in progress, but they did enough to walk out of Foxborough with a W.  I was particularly impressed with the way they finished the game - Tua with a huge 13 yard crosser to Parker, and then we ran out the clock with the running game.  Clean up some of the sloppy play and improve the QB-WR timing, and I think this offense is going to be great.  A lot of positive signs today, if you care to look at them.

Aaron Rodgers had 133 yards passing today, with no TDs and 2 INTs, and the Bills lost at home with Allen looking like crap...yet here we are complaining about Tua after beating the Patriots in their building. 

CarsonChris wrote:Miami won a game it should have lost. This is a good and bad scenario. I feel we were outplayed. Typically when you are out played you lose. I wanted a big win not just a win. Still worried about Tua's ability. That wasn't put to rest.

Yes. Tua still has to prove to me he's not just another game manager. I'm not sure he'll be able to if half the WRs are always hurt every week and the O-line keeps being mediocre at best, though. Then again Andrew Luck was a comeback machine and won multiple playoff games with pretty much just TY Hilton and a bunch of bums, and we all know how little Marino had to work with most of his career.

DolFan 316 wrote:

JMP wrote:That Gase playoff team could easily have been like 4-12 or something. Probably the luckiest Dolphins team ever.

Not sure about 4-12 but according to PFR they "should've" finished 8-8/7-9.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/mia/2016.htm

Then again maybe that evens things out a bit since the infamous '07 team finished THREE wins worse than they should have and lost a whopping SIX games by 3 points

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/mia/2007.htm

It was Gase's two post-playoff teams that were lucky not to be 4-12 or worse, although PFR has both their expected wins at 5. I think the problem with PFR is that while they go by point differential to measure how good a team "really" is, they aren't advanced enough yet to break wins down further than that to see how many times Gase's teams got lucky despite being outgained by well over 100 yards, having 10 first downs or less, etc.

Great post!  So many of those Gase wins felt like losses because of how poorly the team played week after week.  That was rockbottom for me, even worse than the Cameron and Philbin years.

I agree with both JMP and DF, and that's what I am feeling tonight. Thrilled with the big W against a divisional opponent (and nemesis) in week 1 in their stadium.

Tua had some great drives. I'm hoping for better running game success, and more efficient passing - who wouldn't?

Our defense had a bunch of great stops, and some clutch turnovers that turned the tide our way. who wouldn't love that? Give me some some more dominant stops and sacks, or three and outs and I'm thrilled.

I'm happy. What do I expect? Improvement. Because all teams will improve over the season - except the losing ones that miss the playoffs. That's what I want.

GO FINS!!!

JMP wrote:Great post!  So many of those Gase wins felt like losses because of how poorly the team played week after week.  That was rockbottom for me, even worse than the Cameron and Philbin years.

Here's how lucky Gase was. During his three years coaching the Fins, just three teams had a worse point differential despite the Fins being 18th in win percentage

https://stathead.com/football/tgl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=combined&order_by_asc=0&order_by=points_diff&year_min=2016&year_max=2018&game_type=R&game_num_min=0&game_num_max=99&week_num_min=0&week_num_max=99&temperature_gtlt=lt

Also during that time, no team had more wins by 7 or less. In fact, a whopping 18 of Gase's 23 wins were by 7 or less

https://stathead.com/football/tgl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=career&order_by_asc=0&order_by=points_diff&year_min=2016&year_max=2018&game_type=R&ccomp%5B1%5D=lt&cval%5B1%5D=7&cstat%5B1%5D=points_diff&game_num_min=0&game_num_max=99&week_num_min=0&week_num_max=99&game_result=W&temperature_gtlt=lt

And to top it off, only two teams in this span had more losses by 20 or more!

https://stathead.com/football/tgl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=career&order_by_asc=0&order_by=points_diff&year_min=2016&year_max=2018&game_type=R&ccomp%5B1%5D=lt&cval%5B1%5D=-20&cstat%5B1%5D=points_diff&game_num_min=0&game_num_max=99&week_num_min=0&week_num_max=99&game_result=L&temperature_gtlt=lt