Game Thoughts: Week 1, Dolphins at Patriots

And here's the capper--last season Flores had over twice as many wins by 10 or more than Gase did in three seasons COMBINED.

https://stathead.com/football/tgl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=game&order_by_asc=0&order_by=game_date&year_min=2016&year_max=2020&game_type=R&ccomp%5B1%5D=gt&cval%5B1%5D=10&cstat%5B1%5D=points_diff&game_num_min=0&game_num_max=99&week_num_min=0&week_num_max=99&game_result=W&temperature_gtlt=lt&team_id=mia

DolFan 316 wrote:

CarsonChris wrote:Miami won a game it should have lost. This is a good and bad scenario. I feel we were outplayed. Typically when you are out played you lose. I wanted a big win not just a win. Still worried about Tua's ability. That wasn't put to rest.

Yes. Tua still has to prove to me he's not just another game manager. I'm not sure he'll be able to if half the WRs are always hurt every week and the O-line keeps being mediocre at best, though. Then again Andrew Luck was a comeback machine and won multiple playoff games with pretty much just TY Hilton and a bunch of bums, and we all know how little Marino had to work with most of his career.

Whatever, dude.  Your hatred of Tua is so strong that you can't even enjoy a road win over the Patriots.  We were, I think, 2-15 at New England over the last seemingly thousand years and we went there today and WON, and all you can talk about is how Tua didn't put up great stats.

The Packers got blown out with a pitiful performance from Rodgers, the Bills and Allen looked like crap and lost at home, the so-called best QB prospect in years (TLaw) got blown out by what was supposed to be the worst team in the league, Tannehill shit the bed as the Titans got destroyed, Matt Ryan got blown out and threw for 164 yards and 0 TDs...but the big takeaway today is that Tua sucks. Got it.    

Enjoy the win, brother...we just stole a road win against our most hated rival.  That's a good thing.

Easy big fella, nobody "hates" Tua here. We're just saying he needs to improve and be a QB the team wins because of instead of in spite of is all. I'm the one who said this team would get better as the season went along, remember?

316 bringing the stats! 

Gase was such a disaster...those teams were so poorly coached, it's mindboggling.  I still have nightmares of seeing him sitting on the bench with his tablet while his defense was on the field, completely oblivious to what was happening in the game.

DolFan 316 wrote:Easy big fella, nobody "hates" Tua here. We're just saying he needs to improve and be a QB the team wins because of instead of in spite of is all. I'm the one who said this team would get better as the season went along, remember?

Carson hates Tua - it's been obvious since day one.  I'm sure he wants him to succeed, but it is clear that he hates him.

Of course Tua needs to play better - so do Aaron Rodgers, Josh Allen, Ryan Tannehill, Justin Herbert and a bunch of other media darlings that didn't play well today.

Juts rewatching highlights...that 36-yard pass to Waddle was absolutely gorgeous.  Hopefully we see a  lot more of those this season!  And that quick hit to Parker to seal the victory was awesome. Those were big time throws from Tua.  Something to build on.

Here's another stat just for Jmp Last season Damien Harris fumbled just once on 142 touches. He did not play in either game VS the Fins.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/H/HarrDa06.htm

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/H/HarrDa06/gamelog/2020/

DolFan 316 wrote:Here's another stat just for Jmp Last season Damien Harris fumbled just once on 142 touches. He did not play in either game VS the Fins.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/H/HarrDa06.htm

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/H/HarrDa06/gamelog/2020/

Damn!

The slo-mo replay of the fumble was really cool to see...the Phins' defenders were just molesting Harris and Howard was able to knock the ball from his hands. Just a relentless effort by the D there. What I loved most was that it was totally something you'd see the Patriots do to us in the past...but this time, we did it to them!

I see on a replay that the huge sack Eich allowed on that third down play was actually not as bad as it seemed...turns out, as he was blocking, his leg got tangled with Kindley's and he lost his balance. So while it looked like he got steamrolled by the defender, he actually just tripped. I'll give him a pass for that one.

The game was a slow paced game from both teams. On a grading system I would give Tua a C- Nothing spectacular and room for improvement. Again, he didn't lose us the game but struggled moving the ball.

Coaching B- We won but looked pedestrian doing it. The opening drive each half resulted in a touchdown. Very little production outside those 2 drives.

Defense, B-, We allowed a rookie QB to keep drive after drive alive. The only saving grace the forced fumble.

Offensive line B- A few blocking errors but mostly kept Tua upright.

Defensive line C the no pressure line. The pass rush should have eaten up a rookie QB. Where's our vaunted 1st round pass rusher? Setting the edge on the bench isn't where an impact player is supposed to be. Him and Iggy had the same stat line and that's a problem!

This game falls somewhere in the B--C range. We didn't fail but we didn't look like a playoff team either.

We will need a lot of improvement to beat the Bills next week. The offense needs to move the ball more. To many 3 and outs. Coaching staff/offensive coordinators need to do a better job calling the games. Feels like the opening drives were well planned and Tua executed them the way he should have. Everything after those opening drives felt awkward. Kind of like a date that drags on when you've run out of stuff to talk about.

Have to give Jones credit - we hit him 9 times and he hung in there and completed passes. The quick passing game they utilized really nullified the effectiveness of the Dolphins pass rush. But you have to wonder about the long-term success of that New England offense if they continue to rely on nothing but short passes and Jones continues to get the snot beat out of him.

The Dolphin defense played ultra-conservative to make sure they kept everything in front of them. And it worked. The Dolphins allowed just 6 points (2 field goals) in the second half, and they shut down the running game that looked unstoppable in the first half. Damien Harris had just 27 yards and the game-losing fumble in the second half. And the Phins did that without their best run stuffer.

I don't know...the Dolphins looked like a playoff team to me. They went into VERY hostile territory and came out with a gut-check victory. They almost shutout the home team in the second half, and they did just enough on offense to seal the victory. That final drive where they ran out the clock was absolutely playoff-caliber...from the precise laser pass from Tua to Parker on that crosser from their own 5 yard line, to the tough running by Malcolm Brown - that's how great teams close out games. No, it wasn't perfect - but this is something to build on.

The Bills did not look good at all yesterday, at home. Just real sloppy play all around, and Allen looked very rusty. Their defense was very strong, but the offense was completely out of sync and STs was awful. Hopefully some of that sloppy play carries over to next week. I feel good about the matchup, especially since it is in Miami. I think it will be another dogfight that comes down to the wire.

JMP wrote:
On another note, I am curious to see snap counts.  I didn't notice D-lineman Adam Butler today...wondering if he even played much??

LOL Adam Butler had 48 snaps! I don't know how I didn't see him...guess I was confusing him with John Jenkins? Butler is #70 and Jenkins is #90.

Where was Gesicki yesterday? I'm very concerned about the offensive play calling going forward.

I’m going to try to be as objective about actually judging this performance as I can without losing sight of the fact that the Miami Dolphins won on the road against a divisional foe. That is a positive that can’t be overstated. And to make it even better, the rest of the division lost as well.

The defense ballhawking and not just taking turnovers off of bad plays, but creating fumbles by ripping and stripping. That saved Miami in this game.
The opening drives of each half were very, very good for Miami. The offense was clicking and running on all cylinders. There is definitely something there with those long balls to Waddle and Parker (and the addition of Fuller is gotta help too). Those TD drives (instead of FGs) made the difference.
A huge positive was that Miami got the ball (took the ball) with 3:31 left to play and NE had all 3 timeouts. And despite a holding wiping out an nice 8 yard Tua scramble, the Dolphins still managed to grind out the clock and preserve a 1 point victory. That’s just something the Dolphins of recent memory haven’t been able to do.

And now to the less pleasing aspects of the game. This bend but don’t break defense has got to stop bending so much. The continued problems stopping the run and quick timing passes almost cost Miami the game. Truth is, NE controlled the clock and Miami’s defense struggled to get off the field. Jones completed 74% of his pitch and catch passes (with plenty of YAC to boot) and the Pats converted 11 of 16 (69%) 3rd downs (to Miami’s paltry 36%). And while on paper, holding NE to 1 of 4 in the redzone looks nice, the truth is a holding call greatly benefited Miami on one of those drives while Jones uncharacteristically missing an open receiver on what would have converted yet another 3rd also helped tremendously.

I’m not going to crush them yet, but something worth keeping an eye on was playcalling. On the 2 TD drives, Gaskin ran 7 times for a very respectable 45 yards. He was only handed the ball 2 other times the entire game despite finishing with 5.4 yards per carry. Why? Especially in a game when the defense was having trouble getting off the field while NE controlled the clock and could’ve used some time getting a breather, why didn’t Miami commit more to running Gaskins? He did contribute 27 more yard on 5 catches (catching 100% of is targets).

I hate to say this, as I fear it will be taken out of context, but I gotta be honest. One thing I did indeed notice was Tua seemed at times to get a little happy footed in the pocket and turned his back to the downfield (as in on his almost game killing interception). Mac Jones on the other hand did indeed stand in the pocket and took some punishment just after delivering a successful timing pass. I don’t believe its cause for concern just yet, but worth monitoring. I’m hopeful that a greater commitment to the run (see above) and a settled offensive line situation (the Dolphins only had one week to prepare after learning of Jackson’s COVID test) will help. And perhaps targeting Gesicki more than twice, but I think Miami was forced to keep the TEs in more to help in pass protection (but not 100% on that).

But I am not going to sway too far either way with this victory as Week 1 isn’t always a true indicator of a team’s performance over the full course of a season (the Phins will see a very motivated Bills team that just lost ugly). I’m just going to be happy the Dolphins beat a divisional opponent in their (very tough to play) home. Miami is 1-0 and I saw plenty of positives and am very hopeful they will continue to improve.

Much needed road division win. Got to think adding Fuller will help even more.

Both Smith and Waddle looked good in NFL debuts, as did Chase.

Herbert and Tua both toughed out road wins. I'd say jury is still out on that choice, but Tua shows all sorts of signs. The INT was not good. Stubborn throw.

Fine win overall. This team has mental toughness. Next week will be really difficult, Buffalo has to be desperate after losing the opener at home. But this was a very welcome win.

Great insight as always, merc!

mercury22nathan wrote:
And now to the less pleasing aspects of the game.  This bend but don’t break defense has got to stop bending so much.  The continued problems stopping the run and quick timing passes almost cost Miami the game.  Truth is, NE controlled the clock and Miami’s defense struggled to get off the field.  Jones completed 74% of his pitch and catch passes (with plenty of YAC to boot) and the Pats converted 11 of 16 (69%) 3rd downs (to Miami’s paltry 36%).  And while on paper, holding NE to 1 of 4 in the redzone looks nice, the truth is a holding call greatly benefited Miami on one of those drives while Jones uncharacteristically missing an open receiver on what would have converted yet another 3rd also helped tremendously.

Well, the name of the game is always points. For years the Patriots were winning Super Bowls with a defense that was near the top in points allowed but not nearly so good in yards allowed. Points allowed is, of course, the more important stat. That said, yes, the bend-don't-break philosophy is maddening, and it doesn't always work. We'll see how the season progresses, but absolutely the D needs to tighten up. Yesterday I thought the D did a very good, and maybe great, job on early downs. The problems came on 3rd down, where we simply could not stop the Pats. That MUST be fixed.

mercury22nathan wrote:I’m not going to crush them yet, but something worth keeping an eye on was playcalling. On the 2 TD drives, Gaskin ran 7 times for a very respectable 45 yards. He was only handed the ball 2 other times the entire game despite finishing with 5.4 yards per carry. Why? Especially in a game when the defense was having trouble getting off the field while NE controlled the clock and could’ve used some time getting a breather, why didn’t Miami commit more to running Gaskins? He did contribute 27 more yard on 5 catches (catching 100% of is targets).

Yep, I have no idea why we weren't running the ball. That's a head-scratcher.

mercury22nathan wrote:I hate to say this, as I fear it will be taken out of context, but I gotta be honest. One thing I did indeed notice was Tua seemed at times to get a little happy footed in the pocket and turned his back to the downfield (as in on his almost game killing interception). Mac Jones on the other hand did indeed stand in the pocket and took some punishment just after delivering a successful timing pass. I don’t believe its cause for concern just yet, but worth monitoring.

To be fair, Mac Jones is a pure pocket passer, while Tua isn't. Jones has almost zero mobility...he's essentially a statue and takes tons of hits. Tua, in contrast, moves around inside and outside of the pocket and is rarely going to stand in the pocket and take hits. It's like comparing Drew Bledsoe and Kyler Murray - just 2 completely different types of QBs with very different styles of play. You really don't want smaller QBs like Kyler or Tua standing in the pocket and getting destroyed...you want to move the pocket and create space and time. I didn't really notice Tua turning his back on the defense, but for sure he has things to clean up.

white1 wrote:Oh one thing I forgot:  Holland may have delivered the hit of the game.  He hit one of the Patriots TEs like a heat seeking missile, flipping him completely upside down and forcing a fumble.  Unfortunately the Pats recovered the ball, but the hit was highlight reel stuff.  He looks like a steal and will be a pretty much instant star.

https://www.nfl.com/videos/jevon-holland-flips-jonnu-smith-on-third-down-tackle

Yeah, that hit was awesome!!!!!

CarsonChris wrote:Where was Gesicki yesterday?  I'm very concerned about the offensive play calling going forward.

He only had 20-something snaps, as the Phins focused more on protection. I imagine the script will change week to week depending on opponent.

white1 wrote:Another thing I read today, and I would link if I could find it but I don't have the time.  If you look at Josh Allen stats vs Miami, we have *almost* single handedly made him look like a superstar.  He's 5-1 vs Miami in his career.  Against the rest of the league, his performance (both winning and passer rating) drops dramatically.  If this is indeed the case, Boyer and Flores had better figure out what we are doing "wrong" against him, because contrary to the current belief, Allen is not some kind of unstoppable monster super-QB.  In fact, in many games we found that's not the case - ask Aaron Rodgers.

If it's links you want, it's links you get

Here are Josh Allen's career splits. Of all opponents he's faced more than once, he indeed has the highest passer rating VS the Fins--far higher than the Pats or Jets. And he's run for more yards against them than any other team too.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/A/AlleJo02/splits/

But if it's just the raw numbers VS Miami you're looking for in a vacuum, here ya go. Again, it's brutal. Note the only win VS Allen was his first game against them in which the Fins were outgained by 240 yards   Somehow I don't think that happening again will result in another win.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/A/AlleJo02/gamelog/?opp_id=mia

But WAIT~! It gets even worse   Allen hold the record for most rushing yards ever by a QB in a game against the Fins--and is tied for the 4th most too!

https://stathead.com/football/pgl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=game&order_by_asc=0&order_by=rush_yds&year_min=1966&game_type=R&positions%5B%5D=qb&age_min=0&age_max=99&opp_id=mia&game_num_min=0&game_num_max=99&week_num_min=0&week_num_max=99&season_start=1&season_end=-1

I think I'll be spending the rest of this week under the bed shuddering in horror    

Whoops, I almost forgot to add that BTW Allen already has more career rushing yards VS the Fins than any other QB. Yeah.

https://stathead.com/football/pgl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=combined&order_by_asc=0&order_by=rush_yds&year_min=1950&game_type=R&positions%5B%5D=qb&age_min=0&age_max=99&opp_id=mia&game_num_min=0&game_num_max=99&week_num_min=0&week_num_max=99&season_start=1&season_end=-1

Great research as always!

The Steelers did a masterful job of pressuring Allen while simultaneously preventing him from running wild.  That's not easy to do.  They provided the blueprint, but there's not many teams in the league that can duplicate it.  Hopefully the Phins will be up to the task.  If they can find a way to free up Jae Phillips, he has the athleticism to hang with Allen IMO.  We'll see...

Just watched a bunch of highlights from the Dolphins-Pats game, and I have to say - the OL wasn't nearly as bad as people are saying. I thought the pass protection was overall very good. Eich had a few great blocks. I thought Deiter played an excellent game. Gaskin averaged almost 5.5 yards per carry and we definitely got a push on the short yardage and wildcat plays, so the run blocking was better than expected as well. There were of course some breakdowns and mistakes, but overall it was a pretty good performance against a defense that shows a ton of different looks. With more reps and better communication, I can see this line really coming together.

The Buffalo defense is good, but I don't think they are on the same level as the Patriots. So, hopefully, the Miami OL can play even better on Sunday.