Game Thoughts: Week 1, Dolphins at Patriots

JMP wrote:- the OL wasn't nearly as bad as people are saying.  I thought the pass protection was overall very good.

i agree.  it wasn't great, but it wasn't abysmal either.  that's why i made my comment in my original post about Tua seemingly playing with a bit of happy feet.  on the quick timing, single read throws, he was sharp, but on some of the stuff where he had to let things develop downfield a bit, he didn't seem as comfortable.  And as you pointed out, it wasn't because the pass protection was horrible.  as a matter of fact...

From @ESPNStatsInfo
: Tua Tagovailoa is 0-of-4 with an interception while under duress. Mac Jones is 8-of-12 with a passing TD against such pressure.

https://twitter.com/MikeReiss/status/1437189860478132226?s=20

Jones was under far more pressure and responded quite well.  Tua not so much for the little pressure he received.  but what i am really trying to figure out is an explanation for this...

Tua Tagovailoa passing by depth
Target Depth Completions Attempts Yards Touchdowns
9 yards or less  13                    14 113   1
10-19 downfield   1                     9         23        0
20+ downfield   2                     4         66        0

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-week-1-game-recap-miami-dolphins-17-new-england-patriots-16

why was Tua so unsuccessful in the 10 to 19 yard range when in fact he wasn't really under pressure?  right now i am putting it down to first game jitters.  i think he needs to just settle in the pocket a little more and let things happen.  i know he is not a stand-and-deliver pocket passer in mold of a traditional QB, but sometimes he must operate from the pocket - especially when the play does not call from a designed roll out (which i surprisingly didn't see as much as i thought i would).

again, i am not shitting on Tua, but pointing out facts that support what i saw.  and what i'm really looking for is an explanation for the unsuccess of the those mid range throws.  anybody got any thoughts?

I wonder if those PFF stats are accurate? Seemed like he was much better on the intermediate-level throws to me.

One interesting note for those that get hung up on QB yardage: Tua had a higher YPA than Jones, and if Tua had thrown as many passes as Jones did he would have had more yards. Just putting things in perspective..

JMP wrote:I wonder if those PFF stats are accurate?

unfortunately, i believe they are accurate. i went back tracked them against the gamebook (throw by throw) and Tua's overall stats and it all matches up:

https://nflcdns.nfl.com/liveupdate/gamecenter/58514/NE_Gamebook.pdf

of the 8 intermediate misses, there is one miss of Gesicki and Parker each. the drop (? - it was a bit wide) by Waddle. the underpressure overthrow of Waddle that could've/should've been intercepted (i thought that was the worst of the day). the one that actually was intercepted. and 3 good coverages by the Pats.

apparently that was the Patriots plan - to take away Tua's first read and rely on his habit of throwing it up. it worked for one interception and another almost interception.

“That’s what Tua do. If he doesn’t have his first read, he’s just gonna throw the ball up and that’s when we capitalize on defense when he makes mistakes like that,” Jackson said

https://nypost.com/2021/09/13/patriots-j-c-jackson-shades-tua-tagovailoa-after-week-1-loss/

in the end, the Dolphins won - and that is what matters most. but if the supposed book on Tua is that he tosses things up under pressure once his first read is taken...well, he is just gonna have to prove them wrong by making some strong intermediate throws after reading the coverage.

mercury22nathan wrote:

apparently that was the Patriots plan - to take away Tua's first read and rely on his habit of throwing it up.  it worked for one interception and another almost interception.

“That’s what Tua do. If he doesn’t have his first read, he’s just gonna throw the ball up and that’s when we capitalize on defense when he makes mistakes like that,” Jackson said

https://nypost.com/2021/09/13/patriots-j-c-jackson-shades-tua-tagovailoa-after-week-1-loss/

in the end, the Dolphins won - and that is what matters most.  but if the supposed book on Tua is that he tosses things up under pressure once his first read is taken...well, he is just gonna have to prove them wrong by making some strong intermediate throws after reading the coverage.

I saw that comment from Jackson and feel it is nothing but sour grapes. Tua has NEVER been a one-read QB...one of his strengths is going through progressions and not relying on his first read. Trevor Lawrence is a one-read QB, BTW.) I also have not seen any evidence of a "habit" of Tua just recklessly throwing the ball up when pressured...if that was the case, he would have had many more INTs in his college and pro career. The INT on Sunday seemed to be a case of Tua trying to throw the ball out of bounds, but being unable to get enough on the throw because he was off balance.

Bottom line: Tua is now 2-0 against the Patriots, and JC Jackson can suck it.

The defense saved the day for Miami. Xavien Howard earned his money. No fumble and Patriots win that game.

Tua had the worst QB rating of any winning QB on Sunday. Eventually his poor play will cost the Dolphins games. Unless everyone thinks drafting someone similar in skill to Andy Dalton was what we wanted with that 5th over all pick?

CarsonChris wrote:The defense saved the day for Miami. Xavien Howard earned his money. No fumble and Patriots win that game.

A great example of complementary football. The defense got the ball back to prevent the score, and then the offense closed it out. Perfect!

CarsonChris wrote:Tua had the worst QB rating of any winning QB on Sunday. Eventually his poor play will cost the Dolphins games. Unless everyone thinks drafting someone similar in skill to Andy Dalton was what we wanted with that 5th over all pick?

Key phrase: "winning QB".  Wins matter - stats don't. See Deshaun Watson, 2020.

Stats do matter, so do wins. Typically the better the stats the more wins. It's cyclical. We could have had Andy Dalton and his 86.4 rating for a bag of Doritos. That's definitely not what I envision when I think franchise QB.

CarsonChris wrote:Stats do matter, so do wins. Typically the better the stats the more wins. It's cyclical. We could have had Andy Dalton and his 86.4 rating for a bag of Doritos. That's definitely not what I envision when I think franchise QB.

Nope, stats only matter IF AND ONLY IF they come with wins. Aside from his fantasy football owners, who gives a flying rat's ass about Deshaun Watson's gorgeous 2020 stats when his team went 4-12??

You seem to think Mac's stats were so much better than Tua's on Sunday, but guess who won the game? Dak Prescott put up all-world numbers on Thursday, but he lost. Baker Mayfield just completed 75% of his passes for 321 yards and an off-the-charts YPA of 11.5, but he lost.

Stats are fine...but if they don't come with a victory, they're just empty numbers.

Speaking of looking weak in victory...Football Outsiders actually has the big, bad Chiefs as officially the worst winning team of Week 1 (and the only one whose DVOA rating was inferior to their opponent). The Fins come in as the 10th best team, which was higher than I expected. Also, the Pats apparently had the two luckiest wins of last season. Make of that what you will.

(As an aside, thank God they faced the NFC West last year instead of this one.)

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2021/dvoa-week-1-nfc-west-best

DolFan 316 wrote:Speaking of looking weak in victory...Football Outsiders actually has the big, bad Chiefs as officially the worst winning team of Week 1 (and the only one whose DVOA rating was inferior to their opponent). The Fins come in as the 10th best team, which was higher than I expected. Also, the Pats apparently had the two luckiest wins of last season. Make of that what you will.

(As an aside, thank God they faced the NFC West last year instead of this one.)

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2021/dvoa-week-1-nfc-west-best

As a team they got pushed around and abused for 3 quarters but they also have a franchise QB that made plays to win the game. If Miami gets backed up near the end zone and needs a TD to win the game on the final drive do you trust Tua to make the plays down the field? The Raiders game in 2 weeks will be a good indicator of where Tua is at. So will the Bills game. So far Tua looks like his stats. 20th in the league.

Tua was backed up at the 5 yard line on Sunday with the game on the line, and he responded with an absolutely perfect pass to Parker to seal the victory. So yes, I trust Tua to win games.

Who cares where Tua is ranked? We're 1-0 with a HUGE division road win on the books. That's what matters. We won that game as a team, with everyone contributing. That's much more important than meaningless rankings.

Tua had to get 2 first downs. Something he struggled with on Sunday. Miami drafted Tia to be a franchise QB. Right now Tua is bottom third. I hope that changes in the next few weeks. I would love to start calling him the Big Kahuna instead of Tiny Bubbles

CarsonChris wrote:Tua had to get 2 first downs. Something he struggled with on Sunday. Miami drafted Tia to be a franchise QB. Right now Tua is bottom third. I hope that changes in the next few weeks. I would love to start calling him the Big Kahuna instead of Tiny Bubbles

LOL

Since you love QB rating, you'll find it interesting to note that Tua and Josh Allen have the same rating right now. I guess by that logic, Tua is already as good as Allen - and better than Aaron Rodgers. But only one of those QBs won in week 1.

Looking at what I see from Tua, 10 starts in, his issues all look fixable.

He has accuracy that can't be taught. Getting rid of the ball/taking the sack when you can't, that's coachable.

HalCHorn wrote:Looking at what I see from Tua, 10 starts in, his issues all look fixable.

He has accuracy that can't be taught.  Getting rid of the ball/taking the sack when you can't, that's coachable.

Agreed. "10 starts in" is a key factor to remember - and to break it down even further, it is just 1 game in with the new offense. Tua is a work in progress and NOT a finished product. All signs point to continued improvement.

The fact that we have a full team around Tua that can win games while he develops is HUGE...because once he gets to the next level we will be instant legit contenders.

Back to that jackass JC Jackson. I just saw his numbers from Sunday:

7 targets, 4 receptions, 65 yards,
1 TD, over a 100 passer rating

In other words, Tua torched him and he acted like a little bitch after the game to try to save face.

i forgot to ask about this... what did you guys think about that "roughing the passer" penalty that wiped out the E. Roberts' sack that would've forced a FG attempt but instead lead to a NE TD?

mercury22nathan wrote:i forgot to ask about this...  what did you guys think about that "roughing the passer" penalty that wiped out the E. Roberts' sack that would've forced a FG attempt but instead lead to a NE TD?

I absolutely hated it. Unfortunately, the rule is that you can't hit a QB low - regardless of circumstances - so there's really nothing to do about it. According to the rule, that was a penalty. The rule needs to be changed - it's such crap. I understand they want to protect QBs, but when a defender is already on the ground and has a chance to get the QB, is he just supposed to give up???

I'm even more pissed about the refs blowing the whistle on that one Patriots offsides play. We had single coverage on both outside receivers and Tua was looking to go deep. That should have been a free play and could possibly have been a TD, or at least a long play.

I just remember Tannehill season being ended by the exact same thing in '16, with no penalty being called.

Here it is, go to 4:57 for the replay.



Not only was there no flag, but Campbell wasn't even fined despite already having been fined for a previous low hit on Cam Newton (which also wasn't flagged). Just more proof of organized Dolphins hate.

https://arizonasports.com/story/961862/calais-campbell-on-hit-that-hurt-tannehill-i-reached-out-and-i-apologized-to-him/

So yeah, seeing that Roberts play get flagged kinda irked me just a bit

Excellent Tua breakdown from week 1:



Seriously, this is must-watch. About 11 minutes long.

nice video. certainly plenty to be encouraged about. interesting about the breakdowns by Wilson (wrong route) and Waddle (running into contact) on the interception. i wish he'd done some analysis of Tua's other incompletions. can you imagine if they're not all his fault?!?!?! but then again, that doesn't fit the media narrative.

and as an aside... did you happen to see who is a coach for Jenkins Elite? that's right, none other than former CSU Justin Holland. you know, the guy i was sure would be a HOFer. hahaha.

Justin Holland was SO good in college! I'll give you that. LOL

What I like most about the video is how he shows the subtle things that Tua does to mess with the defenders - shoulder movement, body positioning, eye and head movement, etc. Those are veteran-type skills that many QBs never develop. The fact that Tua does those things so early in his career really highlights his instincts and feel for the QB position.

I agree - I wish they showed the other incompletions too, but this analysis really makes me feel confident in Tua moving forward. It may not be as quick as we'd like, but he's getting there. And he's growing together with a bunch of other young players around him, so there will be bumps in the road - but I haven't seen anything yet that isn't correctable.

Sunday will be a big next step for he entire offense...let's hope it is a step forward and not backward!