Re: Why The Fins' First Pick Will Be A CB

by **JMP** Thu Apr 21, 2016 12:15 pm

Well, this discussion highlights the main issue with the Dolphins the past few years: they suck at complementary football. What I mean is, ideally the offense, defense and special teams should all help each other out in terms of field position, time of possession, points scored and allowed, etc. What you want is an offense that controls the clock and scores points while limiting turnovers, a defense that keeps the opponent out of the endzone and forces turnovers, and special teams that consistently win the field position battle and make big plays.

The Dolphins suck at all those things, so there really isn't one solution. We need major improvement in all phases. The offense is pathetic, but so is the defense - and special teams don't do enough to help matters.

by rightchea Thu Apr 21, 2016 12:26 pm

This is why Miami need to double down on draft picks and makes sure they get the right people so they can win

by DolFan 316 Thu Apr 21, 2016 8:39 pm

Here's a reason why it might make sense for a CB to be the first pick--the Fins set franchise records for both passing yards and TDs allowed last season.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/tgl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&year_min=1966&year_max=2015&game_type=R&playoff_round=&game_num_min=0&game_num_max=99&week_num_min=0&week_num_max=99&game_day_of_week=&game_time=&time_zone=&game_location=&surface=&roof=&stadium_id=&temperature_gtlt=lt&temperature=&game_result=&overtime=&league_id=&team_id=mia&team_conf_id=&team_div_id=&opp_id=&opp_conf_id=&opp_div_id=&team_off_scheme=&team_def_align=&opp_off_scheme=&opp_def_align=&conference_game=&division_game=&tm_is_playoff=&opp_is_playoff=&tm_is_winning=&opp_is_winning=&tm_scored_first=&tm_led=&tm_trailed=&tm_won_toss=&c1stat=pass_td_opp&c1comp=gt&c1val=28&c2stat=pass_yds_opp&c2comp=gt&c2val=3500&c3stat=&c3comp=gt&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&c5comp=&c5gtlt=lt&c6mult=1.0&c6comp=&order_by=pass_td_opp

by DolFan 316 Thu Apr 21, 2016 8:45 pm

JMP wrote:Second, I absolutely think WR is a need. Landry is a given. Parker looks like a rising star, but has foot issues. Stills is nothing special and is on the last year of his contract. After that, we have nothing worth mentioning. You put Parker and Treadwell on the outside with Landry in the slot - and at times mix and match all three at different positions - that's a goddamn serious group of receivers that could do MAJOR damage. Then you can have your speed guy, Stills, come off the bench in 4-wide sets and other situational spots.

Actually, the more I think about it, the more I'm starting to really like the idea of Treadwell at 13. Most mocks have him going lower, but I don't know that there will be a clear-cut BPA at 13, and I could easily argue that Treadwell is the top WR in this draft and worthy of going at 13.

At least one site doesn't think Treadwell is all that.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2016/playmaker-score-2016

Laquon Treadwell, Ole Miss

Playmaker Projection: 479 Yards

Playmaker Rating: 69.5%

Laquon Treadwell is the consensus No. 1 wide receiver in this draft amongst draftniks. Playmaker Score, however, disagrees. Even factoring his status as sure first-round pick, Playmaker Score ranks him as only the fifth best receiver available. So why is Treadwell's Playmaker so low?

First, Treadwell's rate statistics are not particularly impressive. Treadwell's best season was his junior year, when he recorded 1,153 yards and 11 touchdowns. Those are certainly fine numbers for a college wide receiver, but fall short of the numbers most highly drafted NFL wide receivers produce. For example, Amari Cooper produced 1,727 yards and 16 touchdowns in his final season, even though his team passed less than Treadwell's team did. As another example, Nelson Agholor, who was considered only a fringe first-round prospect, put up 1,313 yards and 12 touchdowns in his final season on a team that also passed less than Treadwell's.

Treadwell's career yards per reception is also a below-average 11.8 yards per catch, although that number did improve as his college career progressed. Possession receivers in college rarely pan out in the NFL, and Treadwell did not have the rushing attempts that would mark him as the kind of "jack of all trades" wide receiver that sometimes succeeds in the NFL despite low yards per reception numbers.

Playmaker Score likes that Treadwell is coming out as a junior, but he is poised to have one of the worst projections ever for a first-round underclassman. Assuming that Treadwell is drafted in the first round, the list of first-round underclassmen wide receivers with the worst projections would be Jon Baldwin, Cordarrelle Patterson, Treadwell, Anthony Gonzalez, and Yatil Green.

This officially scares me pale

by **JMP** Thu Apr 21, 2016 10:15 pm

Right now I have Treadwell going to the Vikings in my mock - I think he'd be a real good fit there. We'll see...

by rightchea Thu Apr 21, 2016 10:50 pm

Treadwell will be a good pick in the lower rounds but at the same time Miami would have to trade down to go after him because it would be pointless to waste the 13th pick on him.

by **JMP** Thu Apr 21, 2016 11:10 pm

rightchea wrote:Treadwell will be a good pick in the lower rounds but at the same time Miami would have to trade down to go after him because it would be pointless to waste the 13th pick on him.

That's the thing with this draft - there's not going to be much difference between players taken from 11-15 and players taken from 16-31. I think you're going to see a lot of players that are now projected to go in the late first/early second actually get picked in the teens. Some teams are going to value certain players higher than others, and ultimately a team needs to pick the player that fits best for them...and that player may not be a fit for other teams.

For example, I think a guy like Emmanuel Ogbah is going to go in the teens, even though he is projected to go late in round 1 or in round 2. I wouldn't be at all surprised if the Phins pick him, because he fits what they do and he's the right size. I'm actually seriously considering putting him at 13 in my mock.

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