Herbert comparison to Tannehill

This is an interesting read from Mando: https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/armando-salguero/article240905256.html

What I found particularly interesting is the conclusion:

Overall: And here’s the surprise ...

I asked all nine men who is the better draft prospect -- 2012 Ryan Tannehill or 2020 Justin Herbert?

All nine said Justin Herbert.

So Herbert is a lot like Tannehill. Multiple people see this. But according to these experts, Herbert is actually a better version of a young Tannehill.

Why do I find this article and conclusion so interesting?

- Washington may NOT be putting up a smoke screen. They actually might draft Tua, and IMO probably should if they have any doubts on Haskins. Doubling down on a QB and ending up with two very good ones is a great problem to have. You'll get those picks back, and maybe more, in a trade after a couple of seasons.

- Let's assume Burrow and Tua go 1-2. You're now looking at Herbert, Love, Hurts in the next tier, with Herbert seemingly edging the other prospects out.

- Tannehill had a very interesting career. Most interesting was last season when he showed what he can do behind a good offensive line and paired with an elite running game. Culminating in a playoff victory over New England.

- So, if Herbert IS a better prospect (with far better college production I will add) - would drafting him at 5 overall really be a tragedy? Probably a better selection than Tannehill was at 8 overall back in 2012.

In short, if we do need a QB (we do), and the top 2 are gone (they very well might be), and there's no way to trade up (if the Skins want Tua bad enough, it's not gonna work) - then drafting Herbert sounds like a very good plan B to me. Plus, you keep the rest of the picks and build out the roster later in round 1 and through the draft.

Yes, drafting Herbert would be a tragedy. For the same reasons drafting Tannehill was. Needless to say, he won't have anywhere near an elite O-line or RBs in Miami, at least not this season or the next.

Do I really need to bust out every QB draft class this century again to show just how few of them each year actually have what would be considered a good NFL career? Because I will if I have to. (The last QB draft class to have as many as 3 good ones was way back in '04 BTW, and some of them haven't had any.)

Simmons will do far more for this team, now and in the future, than Herbert will for anybody ever. That goes for Tua too. This QB class is Burrow and a bunch of bumblers, busts and bums. I can understand why this team feels like they'd *have* to pick a QB, I get it. But they might as well just wait and take Eason or Gordon or McDonald, because those guys have at least the same chance of panning out as Herbert or Love and if they don't then at least a top 5 pick wasn't wasted.

Valid point.

Will the team "reach" or will they decide #5 pick is worth it?

It all depends on who the better player is available at 5. I don't see Herbert as a 5 overall guy, but a shitty GM would definitely pick him at 5 because "franchyze cuebeee, gotz to take our shotz".

Also, Mando's found a new site to pilfer off of. We've really dropped the ball guys .

Wait...so Armando had to do a survey to find out that 2020 Herbert is a better prospect than 2012 Tannehill???? Really??? Mando sure has been churning out some crap lately.

I am just gonna have to trust Grier on this one.

I see the dangers in all the QBs (even Burrows...) and as of now I am gonna have to say I think the Phins (should and will) stand pat at #5, and if the QB they want is there, take him. If not, take the BPA, which should be on defense I am thinking.

Degarmo wrote:It all depends on who the better player is available at 5.  I don't see Herbert as a 5 overall guy, but a shitty GM would definitely pick him at 5 because "franchyze cuebeee, gotz to take our shotz".

Also, Mando's found a new site to pilfer off of.  We've really dropped the ball guys .

It's like everybody somehow forgot that the D was actually and significantly worse than the O, and made the pillow-soft Fins Ds of the mid-late '80s look like the Steel Curtain. In fact, over the last two seasons this team has allowed the most and 3rd most points in franchise history! Even over the last 9 games when they were 5-4 they still gave up the 4th most points in the league as opposed to the offense, which actually was #9 in scoring--more than the Seahawks, Vikings, Eagles and Rams in that span.

http://pfref.com/tiny/hH9aA

As for Armando, he's actually in on my plan and as a result has to pretend he's not using us anymore to keep things on the down low, ya feel me?

DolFan 316 wrote:

It's like everybody somehow forgot that the D was actually and significantly worse than the O, and made the pillow-soft Fins Ds of the mid-late '80s look like the Steel Curtain. In fact, over the last two seasons this team has allowed the most and 3rd most points in franchise history! Even over the last 9 games when they were 5-4 they still gave up the 4th most points in the league as opposed to the offense, which actually was #9 in scoring--more than the Seahawks, Vikings, Eagles and Rams in that span.

I'm not as worried about the D for two reasons:

1. The secondary showed a lot of positives despite the fact that almost every member of that group was a nobody, and we were literally starting guys each week that had been on the team for less than 5 days. If the Phins could get anything positive out of that situation, imagine what they could do with a more stable, talented group of players.

2. We had zero pass rush in 2019. Really, that was by design because we had no pass rushers on the team! I can only assume that pass rush will be a high priority this offseason.

So, you add pass rushers and competent DBs, and this defense becomes good in a hurry. Of course, it's easier to say than it is to actually accomplish - but IMO it's not a big stretch to predict significant improvement on D with even just a few key additions.

JMP wrote:So, you add pass rushers and competent DBs, and this defense becomes good in a hurry.  Of course, it's easier to say than it is to actually accomplish - but IMO it's not a big stretch to predict significant improvement on D with even just a few key additions.

Drafting a defensive player at #5 would be a fairly significant addition I would think. Just sayin'

DolFan 316 wrote:

Drafting a defensive player at #5 would be a fairly significant addition I would think. Just sayin'

Sure it would. But not as significant as drafting a franchise QB at #3 (or #5 if we get lucky...)

I just read Dolphins are kicking the tires on Eason. That dude reminds me of Fitzpatrick.

I prefer Burrow. We will most likely get Tua or Herbert.

Tua had the fortune of playing behind a top offensive line with some of the top receivers in the country. He will have neither in Miami.

Herbert played on a bad team with a revolving door for coaches.

I’m not sure which player will have a better career. I’m still leaning toward Herbert

I can see Eason as a late pick up but nothing more than that. He would be a good #2 behind a better QB

CarsonChris wrote:

Tua had the fortune of playing behind a top offensive line with some of the top receivers in the country. He will have neither in Miami.

Herbert played on a bad team with a revolving door for coaches.

I’m not sure which player will have a better career. I’m still leaning toward Herbert

Sorry, CC, but you're working with a lot of misinformation here...

--Oregon's OL was considered top 3 in the nation this season, ranked above Alabama's. So if you think Tua benefited from his line you have to say the same about Herbert. Oregon also had a better run offense than Alabama did.
--If you want to talk about Alabama's receivers, then you also have to talk about LSU's receivers - who were arguably even better. If you take points away from Tua because he played with good receivers, you have to take points away from Burrow too.
--Oregon did NOT have a revolving door of head coaches. Herbert has had the same head coach for the last two seasons, and the same OC/QB coach for the last three seasons.
--Oregon was NOT a bad team in 2019. They were 12-2 and were ranked #5 in the AP poll.

I get it - you don't like Tua. But please stick to facts...no need to make things up to make Herbert look better.

Unless you think Tua is never going to play, I can't imagine how anyone could think Herbert is a better prospect than Tua. Nothing in their college careers would even hint at that possibility.

Don’t be disingenuous, Wills is one of the top tackles in football, the junior that is going back to Bama was a top 20 pick. Two of the top receivers in Jeudy and Ruggs are graded first round.

Please tell me one Oregon duck beside Herbert that will be taken in the first round this year?

If Leatherwood had declared Alabama would have 5 top 30 prospects in the draft from the offense. Compare to Oregon’s scrubs that grade out as backup players and special teamers.

Check the rankings, CC - Oregon's OL is ranked higher than Alabama's. 'Bama had two good tackles, but they weren't great in the interior. Oregon's line was better, period. Oregon OL Shane Lemieux and Calvin Throckmorton are both projected to go in round 1 or (more likely) 2 in April.

As far as receivers, again - I don't hear anyone knocking Burrow because he played with the top receiving corps in college football, so why is it mark against Tua? I would also add - maybe the 'bama receivers were so good because of who was throwing them the ball. There is no doubt that Tua's near-perfect timing and ball placement played a big role in the receivers' stats. Some QBs make the players around them look better - Tua is one, Herbert clearly isn't.

Herbert's a nice player - but he's not elite and there's no indication that he ever will be.

Shane Lemieux
https://walterfootball.com/nflhotpress/article/Multiple-Teams-View-Shane-Lemieux-Between-Rounds-1-and-2
From November:

Lemieux is a 4-year starter who some sources believe has plug-and-play potential for the NFL. The 6-foot-4, 317-pounder has good size to go with strength and athleticism. He is a good technician and a well-balanced blocker who is effective in both phases. Sources from three different teams said they thought Lemieux could go late in the first round or early in the second round in the 2020 NFL Draft. While a couple of other team sources thought that was a bit too high, they had Lemieux graded lower on Day 2.

The NFL Draft has seen a number of solid interior linemen get selected in the back half of the first round because they are viewed as quick contributors and safe picks for playoff teams looking to improve their pass protection and run blocking. A number of teams think Lemieux could be that kind of pick in the 2020 NFL Draft.

Calvin Throckmorton
From January:

An above average player you can win with, but not because of. Has several desirable traits as well as limitations which much be accounted for. A mid day-2 value.

Lemieux will probably be a guard in the NFL, so that hurts his value some. Throckmorton could be in high demand, because he can play anywhere on the line and he's a solid player. I guess you can find good and bad reports about any player, but these two guys are solid and have NFL futures IMO.

You know I'm not the biggest PFF fan, but they had Oregon as the top #1 in 2019 with the #1 ranked OT. Here's what they said:

1. Oregon Ducks
Highest-graded player: OT Penei Sewell – 95.5 (1st)
The Ducks' offensive line proved time and time again that they were the class of college football in 2019. As a unit, they ranked second in run-blocking grade and third in pass-blocking grade for the season. Led by potential Heisman Trophy candidate for 2020 in Penei Sewell, the Ducks allowed just 15 combined sacks and hits from the offensive line (just 3.04% of snaps), the 16th-lowest figure from any team, despite playing a whopping 493 pass-blocking snaps.

https://www.pff.com/news/college-football-ranking-all-130-college-football-offensive-line-situations

Penei Sewell is a beast...definitely a guy to watch in next year's draft.

PFF had Alabama ranked #3.

So yeah, both great OLs. I don't think it's fair to give an advantage to either player in that category.

Herbert actually reminds me of Chad Henne a bit. Both were smart players with big arms and were very productive in college, but had a tendency to choke in big spots and never displayed that "it" factor. Henne was always very "robotic"...stick with the play that was called, and if anything gets messed up the play is over. That's what I see with Herbert - things break down and he often doesn't know what to do. Herbert is of course a better prospect than Henne, no question, but I do see similarities in how they play.