Year of the rebuild

We tore Miami down last year. The foundation will be built this year. The walls should be up next year and the roof in year 3.

Year 1- 8-8
Year 2 10-6 playoffs
Year 3 12-4 AFC East Champions, AFC Championship game
Year 4 13-3 AFC East AFC Champions NFL Champions

Anything less and this team failed.

I agree with this

CC, very nice plan. It would be nice if this was the case. The reign of the Patriots and Tom Brady may finally be coming to an end. So the future of the AFC East could be up for grabs. I do think the key to becoming a NFL Champion is to win your division and get home field advantage in the playoffs. That whole wildcard thing is kinda fluky and not dependable IMHO.

Permit to ask:

- Is this plan dependent on getting a franchise QB THIS YEAR?
Or, could the Phins continue to build the foundation and bring in a QB in year 2 of the plan?

Personally, I think not getting the QB this year, would definitely set the whole plan back at least a year.

Then again, getting the WRONG QB and over-committing to him when it is evident he is not the franchise
qb you at first thought, is even worse than not getting a QB IMHO.

I am really wondering if Ron Rivera is trying to convince the Redskins management of that, and sway them
to trade Haskins and draft Tua. i don't know if Haskins is the "wrong QB" but there do seem to be a lot of questions about him.

Sounds fair to me, CC. I'll take it!

finfanatic wrote:CC, very nice plan.

Permit to ask:

- Is this plan dependent on getting a franchise QB THIS YEAR?
Or, could the Phins continue to build the foundation and bring in a QB in year 2 of the plan?

Personally, I think not getting the QB this year, would definitely set the whole plan back at least a year.

Then again, getting the WRONG QB and over-committing to him when it is evident he is not the franchise
qb you at first thought, is even worse than not getting a QB IMHO.

I am really wondering if Ron Rivera is trying to convince the Redskins management of that, and sway them
to trade Haskins and draft Tua. i don't know if Haskins is the "wrong QB" but there do seem to be a lot of questions about him.

This has to be the plan with or without a new QB. We will have approximately 20 new players on this team this year. An additional 10-15 the following year. This year is Grier’s vision. His players better bring wins. If we aren’t a playoff team next year Grier failed.

finfanatic wrote:I am really wondering if Ron Rivera is trying to convince the Redskins management of that, and sway them
to trade Haskins and draft Tua.  i don't know if Haskins is the "wrong QB" but there do seem to be a lot of questions about him.

If Grier actually trades for Haskins a year after trading for Rosen, I swear I'll do something that'll make national news. In a bad way.

CarsonChris wrote:

finfanatic wrote:CC, very nice plan.

Permit to ask:

- Is this plan dependent on getting a franchise QB THIS YEAR?
Or, could the Phins continue to build the foundation and bring in a QB in year 2 of the plan?

Personally, I think not getting the QB this year, would definitely set the whole plan back at least a year.

Then again, getting the WRONG QB and over-committing to him when it is evident he is not the franchise
qb you at first thought, is even worse than not getting a QB IMHO.

I am really wondering if Ron Rivera is trying to convince the Redskins management of that, and sway them
to trade Haskins and draft Tua.  i don't know if Haskins is the "wrong QB" but there do seem to be a lot of questions about him.

This has to be the plan with or without a new QB. We will have approximately 20 new players on this team this year. An additional 10-15 the following year. This year is Grier’s vision. His players better bring wins.  If we aren’t a playoff team next year Grier failed.

Absolutely. This is Grier's vision now, and it won't take long to see if he's on the right track or if he failed miserably. There must be a big step forward in wins this season, and playoffs in 2021. Absolutely. Anything less and it's time to start over - again.

DolFan 316 wrote:

finfanatic wrote:I am really wondering if Ron Rivera is trying to convince the Redskins management of that, and sway them
to trade Haskins and draft Tua.  i don't know if Haskins is the "wrong QB" but there do seem to be a lot of questions about him.

If Grier actually trades for Haskins a year after trading for Rosen, I swear I'll do something that'll make national news. In a bad way.

I not seeing this happening. Miami has done this before and it didn't work why would you try again. Grier is not going to make the same mistake.

If Grier wanted Haskins, he would have drafted him last year. He's not trading for him.

Well, I was not suggesting that Grier wanted Haskins, just that maybe Rivera DOESN"T... meaning the Redskins may take Tua!

Which maybe means the Phins are left holding the "Tank for Tua" draft card and didn't get Tua.

And would not getting THE Franchise QB screw up the plan, or add another year to it?

IMO, I think the Phins desperately need a young Qb that can inspire some HOPE in the team; that things are looking up, and the future is so bright we all need shades!!

If he turns out to be a Franchise QB so much the better.

finfanatic wrote:Well, I was not suggesting that Grier wanted Haskins, just that maybe Rivera DOESN"T... meaning the Redskins may take Tua!

Which maybe means the Phins are left holding the "Tank for Tua" draft card and didn't get Tua.

And would not getting THE Franchise QB screw up the plan, or add another year to it?

IMO, I think the Phins desperately need a young Qb that can inspire some HOPE in the team; that things are looking up, and the future is so bright we all need shades!!

If he turns out to be a Franchise QB so much the better.

It doesn’t matter who the QB is. Great teams overcome injuries so even if we don’t get our planned QB we still need to compete at a championship level.

I think if we don't end up with Burrow or Tua, then the "tank" was a total (and embarrassing) epic fail.

BUT...

It can still be salvaged by drafting a different QB that works out. Who that is, I have no idea...but the bottom line is, we MUST get a legitimate QB in this draft.

So yes, I agree with Carson in that respect - it doesn't really matter who the QB is, as long as we get it right. Of course, the odds of getting it right greatly increase if that QB happens to be Burrow or Tua...but maybe there is another QB that can succeed in Miami.

JMP wrote:I think if we don't end up with Burrow or Tua, then the "tank" was a total (and embarrassing) epic fail.

BUT...

It can still be salvaged by drafting a different QB that works out.  Who that is, I have no idea...but the bottom line is, we MUST get a legitimate QB in this draft.

So yes, I agree with Carson in that respect - it doesn't really matter who the QB is, as long as we get it right.  Of course, the odds of getting it right greatly increase if that QB happens to be Burrow or Tua...but maybe there is another QB that can succeed in Miami.

And again, I have almost 20 years' worth of draft evidence that says any QB class that produces more than two guys who have what could be defined as successful NFL careers is literally almost unheard of. The ONLY time this century it's happened was '04, and the 4th best QB from that draft (Matt Schaub) would've been the best one from at least a couple of other draft classes. Hell, there's already evidence that the QB class from just two years ago won't have more than a couple of successes. Rosen's already flopped, Darnold has been every bit the turnover machine I said he would before that draft, Allen can't actually pass all that well, and Mayfield's in the process of flaming out after a good rookie year because Browns gonna Brown. Also, the one QB of the bunch who looks like the best (Jackson) might already be a playoff choke artist.

It's Burrow or bust, boys. Tua won't last his rookie contract, at least not as a starter. Anyone else is career backup material at best.

DolFan 316 wrote:

JMP wrote:I think if we don't end up with Burrow or Tua, then the "tank" was a total (and embarrassing) epic fail.

BUT...

It can still be salvaged by drafting a different QB that works out.  Who that is, I have no idea...but the bottom line is, we MUST get a legitimate QB in this draft.

So yes, I agree with Carson in that respect - it doesn't really matter who the QB is, as long as we get it right.  Of course, the odds of getting it right greatly increase if that QB happens to be Burrow or Tua...but maybe there is another QB that can succeed in Miami.

And again, I have almost 20 years' worth of draft evidence that says any QB class that produces more than two guys who have what could be defined as successful NFL careers is literally almost unheard of. The ONLY time this century it's happened was '04, and the 4th best QB from that draft (Matt Schaub) would've been the best one from at least a couple of other draft classes. Hell, there's already evidence that the QB class from just two years ago won't have more than a couple of successes. Rosen's already flopped, Darnold has been every bit the turnover machine I said he would before that draft, Allen can't actually pass all that well, and Mayfield's in the process of flaming out after a good rookie year because Browns gonna Brown. Also, the one QB of the bunch who looks like the best (Jackson) might already be a playoff choke artist.

It's Burrow or bust, boys. Tua won't last his rookie contract, at least not as a starter. Anyone else is career backup material at best.

I guess it depends on your definition of "successful".

2000 - Brady, Pennington, Bulger
2004 - Manning, Rivers, Roethlisberger, Schaub
2005 - Smith, Rodgers, Cassel, Fitzpatrick
2008 - Ryan, Flacco, Flynn
2011 - Newton, Kaepernick, Dalton, Tyrod Taylor, Gabbert
2012 - Luck, Wilson, Foles, Cousins, Tannehill
2014 - Garoppolo, Carr, Bridgewater
2016 - Goff, Wentz, Brissett, Prescott
2017 - Mahomes, Watson, Trubisky

And the 2018 class is still loaded with potential with Allen and Jackson already making the playoffs, and Darnold and Mayfield showing some degree of potential.

And last year, Murray, Lock, Jones and Minshew all played very well at times, and Haskins showed some good things.

Now obviously not all of those guys are Hall of Famers or Super Bowl winners, but the list has a lot of double-digit win seasons and postseason appearances, and what I would call at least some success.

The fact is, drafting QBs is a crapshoot and there's really no way of knowing who will pan out and who won't. Predicting that all the QBs will suck except the guy you like is not something I'd bet the house on.

You're going to list the likes of Cassel, Flynn, Taylor, Gabbert, Brissett and Trubisky as NFL "successes" on par with Brady, The Big Three of '04, Rodgers, Ryan and Wilson??? Seriously???

Also, Tannehill is now a successful QB? And didn't you say Luck never really won squat? I know I saw that somewhere recently. Some of those QBs on your list are not like the others, some of those QBs just don't belong

I would even go as far as saying that if Tua has an NFL career after 8 years comparable to half the guys you list as "successes" that even YOU will be calling him a bust.

Also, I notice you left out about half the QB draft classes this century altogether! Hmmm

DolFan 316 wrote:You're going to list the likes of Cassel, Flynn, Taylor, Gabbert, Brissett and Trubisky as NFL "successes" on par with Brady, The Big Three of '04, Rodgers, Ryan and Wilson??? Seriously???

Also, Tannehill is now a successful QB? And didn't you say Luck never really won squat? I know I saw that somewhere recently. Some of those QBs on your list are not like the others, some of those QBs just don't belong

I would even go as far as saying that if Tua has an NFL career after 8 years comparable to half the guys you list as "successes" that even YOU will be calling him a bust.

Also, I notice you left out about half the QB draft classes this century altogether! Hmmm

As I said, success is defined differently by different people. For example, some would say having a 14-year career like Cassel had is very successful. I never said all those guys were on par with Brady. You said that finding three successful QBs in one class is nearly impossible, and I made a list of QBs that I feel were at least marginally successful. Nowhere did I say they were all on equal footing.

And yes, I did leave out a lot of drafts because I was using the criteria of 3 or more successful QBs per class. Again, finding QBs is a crapshoot. Some years have better classes than others. I happen to think that this 2020 class has at least 4 QBs that could have successful careers. Time will tell. Unlike you, I'm not going to automatically write off QBs just because I don't like them. I jumped off the Herbert bandwagon, but I still believe that he can be a very successful QB if he goes to the right team.

The way I see it is there’s usually one QB in the first round that is a franchise player. There’s usually one sure lock at QB that becomes a bust. There’s usually one late round QB that outplays guys drafted before him. That’s the typical NFL draft.

The rest of the QB’s play periodically based on where they get drafted.

Well, the more I am hearing about Hurts, the more I think trying to land him at 18 might be the way to go. Assuming he is "this year's Lamar Jackson."

Again, he is no where near the passer Tua is, but....

I do think if Tua impresses at his workout, some team is gonna pay a fortune to bypass the Dolphins and move up to get him. If the Redskins don't draft him at #2 that is.

finfanatic wrote:Well, the more I am hearing about Hurts, the more I think trying to land him at 18 might be the way to go. Assuming he is "this year's Lamar Jackson."

Again, he is no where near the passer Tua is, but....

I do think if Tua impresses at his workout, some team is gonna pay a fortune to bypass the Dolphins and move up to get him. If the Redskins don't draft him at #2 that is.    

The ONLY way to guarantee getting Burrow or Tua is to move up to #2.

Obviously I want Burrow or Tua, but if that doesn't happen I could be on board with Hurts. Like I've said elsewhere, Hurts is growing on me. He's not the runner that Jackson is, but I do think that with some work he could be a better passer. And his leadership and attitude are excellent. 18 seems high for him, but if the Phins think he's "the guy", then they have to pull the trigger.

Hurts will be better than Herbert or Love, and looks to be no worse than Josh Allen IMO. I'd rather take him than trade most of the draft haul for #2 after Burrow's been picked.

Hurts will move up on boards between now and draft day IMO. Maybe not all the way to 18, but IMO if we truly want him he'll have to be taken in the first round. If we took BPA at 5 and 18 and Hurts at 26 I'd have no problem with it. He could sit and learn for a year and Gailey has a history of getting good performances out of mobile QB's.

I wonder what percentage of quarterbacks drafted end up being elite? Maybe 1 in 20? How many end up being good? 3/15. Mediocre? Chances are no matter who’s drafted at QB they are more likely to be mediocre than great

Jalen Hurts is a mid second/early third round pick to me. He has the ability to be a good QB but I see him as either Lamar Jackson or Jameis Winston