Miami Dolphins and the 2024 One Year PAUSE on the Rebuild Plan

I am going to link to this article because I think it points out EXACTLY my thoughts on this latest
season "The Miami Dolphins Super Bowl Express Rebuild Plan - Year SIX!"

Dolphins One Year Pause in 2024

A few quotes:

Chris Perkins wrote:It’s starting to feel as though 2023 was the best chance for The Rebuild to produce a Super Bowl appearance.

Worse, it’s starting to feel as though 2024, the sixth year of a rebuild that started with tanking in 2019, is a recovery year, a time to hit the pause button.

It doesn’t feel like 2024 will be a surge ahead year.

Chris Perkins wrote:I think the Dolphins, led by general manager Chris Grier, the front office and scouting department, can gather enough talent to make the playoffs.

At this point, however, I’m starting to think there’s no way Grier and the Dolphins can gather enough talent to get to a Super Bowl.

That’s a change in thinking.

Chris Perkins wrote:It’s almost a sure thing, however, that the Dolphins won’t have as much talent in 2024 as they had in 2023, when they failed to win a playoff game.

The Dolphins will be OK in 2024.

But OK doesn’t get you to a Super Bowl.

OK also doesn’t keep The Rebuild moving forward.

For that reason, I feel badly for Dolphins fans.

Perkins does acknowledge it is early, and does say the Phins will be OK, but as he points out, OK is a long way from contending for a SB.

The Phins couldn't do it in 2023 when they had Williams, Hunt, Wilkins, AVG, a healthy Phillips and Chubb (to start) and Howard but are going to pay Tua big bucks, and replace the lost talent and refill all the holes???

Hat tip to Merc. Chris must be reading your posts, buddy. Because this echoes the same sentiments you posted??

once you get in the playoffs, anything can happen.  Who had the Bengals in the SB in 2021, or the Lions one game away last year (and they should have won the NFC IMO)?  Or Green Bay being a FG away from the NFC title game?

Miami would almost certainly have to have better injury luck than last year if they can get in, so bottom line, get in and you give yourself a chance.  So often it is a matter of getting hot at the right time.  Maybe KC/Baltimore/Buffalo has horrible injury luck down the stretch next time opening the door for a lower seed to get hot?

It's a valid point and I will read the full article.

Couple brief thoughts come to mind.

One, when we started the rebuild several years ago in the "Tank for Tua" season, we did not know for certain he would be a franchise caliber QB. Is he perfect? No. Is he top 5 in the league? No. But AT LEAST half the league would take him tomorrow and he would represent a significant upgrade. Plus, he's not done developing his game yet - each year he improves in different areas of his game.

Now that we have Tua and the team seems prepared to sign him long term, your philosophy necessarily must shift. Paying him as a starting QB now drives monetary decisions across the roster. Yes, I agree with paying players like Ramsey, Phillips, Chubb, Hill, Holland, Armstead, Jackson. Those are all important positions that can impact the ability to win games.

Finding talent like Wilkins and Hunt in the draft is a good thing, and we leveraged those talents while on their rookie deals until they played so well they became unaffordable. Who's to say this draft won't unearth players of their caliber? Holland, Phillips, Waddle were all draft picks, and all of them are playing well and we would certainly like to see them extended long term.

I agree that 2024 seems to be a bit of a pause on this rebuild plan. Especially considering the blockbuster trades and signings the team made before the last two seasons in bringing in highly paid, blue chip athletes at several positions.

It's necessary now with the state of the cap to adjust the approach a bit and refresh the roster with some youth - which means also getting cheaper at spots.

Of course, if we totally screw up the draft this won't work. But that's true for every team in the league.

Also, let's not forget Ross and his tampering screwups cost us some valuable draft capital. That's one or two players that may still be starting on a rookie deal he cost us.

finfanatic wrote:Hat tip to Merc. Chris must be reading your posts, buddy. Because this echoes the same sentiments you posted??

i appreciate the hat tip, but unfortunately, i don't think anyone would need to read my posts to come to the same conclusion. they would simply need to open their eyes and see what is going on in Miami to come to the same obvious conclusion.

HalCHorn wrote:Maybe KC/Baltimore/Buffalo has horrible injury luck down the stretch next time opening the door for a lower seed to get hot?

a priest, a rabbi and an atheist walk into a bar... oh wait, wrong joke.

Josh Allen and Pat Mahomes are driving a car. they run over Joe Burrows and are ejected landing square on top of Lamar Jackson. Tua Tagovailoa witnessing the accident looks at CJ Stroud and Justin Herbert as says, "i guess i'm the second best qb in the AFC now."

Cote of the Herald put it pretty brutally honestly.

So here came the Las Vegas Raiders right onto the Miami Dolphins lot and brazenly drove off with Christian Wilkins, a Maserati defensive tackle, because the Fins could not afford to keep him. I do not believe any NFL team has suffered a bigger early loss in free agency.

Neither could Miami afford to re-sign Hunt, or edge rusher Andrew Van Ginkel.

Just like they also could not afford to keep Xavien Howard, Jerome Baker or Emmanuel Ogbah, all solid defensive players, all released outright for salary cap reasons.

In their place the Dolphins have signed a handful of sedans, all they can afford as they move money to somehow have enough left to lavish QB Tua Tagovailoa with a long-term contract expected to be in the range of or higher than the four-year, $180 million Atlanta just gave Kirk Cousins.

Big spending the past couple of years brought high-end talent like Tyreek Hill and Jalen Ramsey to Miami. It also plunged the Dolphins to around $25 million over the cap [pre-cuts], the worst financial straits of just about any team.

The hard reality for Miami and its fans is that Tagovailoa will be asked to be better than ever in 2024 for a team likely not quite as good.

https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/greg-cote/article286626490.html

and in trying to put a positive spin on it, Barry Jackson asks that we patience and give the rebuild 2 more years...

Let’s see how general manager Chris Grier fills the roster’s deficiencies over the next five months and what the Dolphins can do when their draft war chest is replenished in 13 months and when more cap flexibility arrives next March.

If we’re in this same position in 25 months, without a division title or playoff win, then it would be an appropriate time for grand pronouncements of failure. If they unravel and have a losing record next season, they’ll deserve blame.

https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/barry-jackson/article286107201.html

hahaha. its the 3 year rebuild that will take 8 years!! at which point they'll decide Tua isn't the answer and draft another QB asking for another 3 years, and so on, and so on, etc., etc...

Even Ross will lose patience if Grier - Tua - McDaniel fail to win a playoff game over the next two seasons.

Then we're looking at a total house cleaning.

Not that I would look forward to that at all...

The one thing about all of this that hurts my soul the most is that the Bills, despite being about as far over the cap as this team, were able to re-sign AJ Epenesa to the EXACT SAME 2 year, $20 mil deal that Grier thought was too pricey for AVG! This was a thing that happened!

Wilkins and Hunt were already gone months ago, and if you're honest with yourselves you knew that months ago. But AVG was the one who got away--and it was ENTIRELY preventable. It also leaves the current biggest hole. By far.

HalCHorn wrote:once you get in the playoffs, anything can happen.  Who had the Bengals in the SB in 2021, or the Lions one game away last year (and they should have won the NFC IMO)?  Or Green Bay being a FG away from the NFC title game?

Miami would almost certainly have to have better injury luck than last year if they can get in, so bottom line, get in and you give yourself a chance.  So often it is a matter of getting hot at the right time.  Maybe KC/Baltimore/Buffalo has horrible injury luck down the stretch next time opening the door for a lower seed to get hot?

I mean, JJ's first team did only have one fewer win than Shula's last even after the second largest talent drain in one offseason in franchise history so I *suppose* it's possible...

Then again if the second largest offseason talent drain resulted in one fewer win, this one should result in at least TWO fewer

I grow more adamantly opposed to a Tua extension by the day, if not the hour. At least Herbert put up much better numbers when he got his. I don't want to see this team be $50 mil over the cap next February.

I think the coaching change on defense and the adjustments on offense will make this a better overall team when all is said and done. Grier has done an excellent job so far of adding cheap talent to fill roster holes, and I expect him to continue to do so. This team is still loaded with talent and in no way do I expect 2024 to be a step back. In fact, with an easier schedule I think it is very possible that we'll win more games than we did in 2023. Of course, the roster isn't set yet so a lot can change between now and then. But so far, I am feeling very optimistic about the direction of this offseason.

JMP wrote:I think the coaching change on defense and the adjustments on offense will make this a better overall team when all is said and done.  Grier has done an excellent job so far of adding cheap talent to fill roster holes, and I expect him to continue to do so.  This team is still loaded with talent and in no way do I expect 2024 to be a step back.  In fact, with an easier schedule I think it is very possible that we'll win more games than we did in 2023. Of course, the roster isn't set yet so a lot can change between now and then.  But so far, I am feeling very optimistic about the direction of this offseason.

EASIER SCHEDULE?!?! HOW could it POSSIBLY be easier than the collection of creampuffs and cupcakes they got TEN WINS off last season?!?!

And it still won't mean a thing if they lose to every good team they face who aren't poseurs themselves.

Nah I’ve heard that too. Schedule is apparently easier this season.

Bills remain the main hurdle for us. Pats? Rookie head coach and no matter what QB they get he’s a rookie too. And Belichek game planning has left the building.

Jets are a dysfunctional mess in my opinion it doesn’t matter who they sign the dynamic is so bad there were reports Saleh may have been fired weeks after “Black Monday.” Hackett sucks.

I like our team. We need a few hits on picks but we still have a lot of talent in this squad.

Don’t forget undrafted free agents. We’ve unearthed several gems that way. Wouldn’t be surprised to see a couple more.

DolFan 316 wrote:

JMP wrote:I think the coaching change on defense and the adjustments on offense will make this a better overall team when all is said and done.  Grier has done an excellent job so far of adding cheap talent to fill roster holes, and I expect him to continue to do so.  This team is still loaded with talent and in no way do I expect 2024 to be a step back.  In fact, with an easier schedule I think it is very possible that we'll win more games than we did in 2023. Of course, the roster isn't set yet so a lot can change between now and then.  But so far, I am feeling very optimistic about the direction of this offseason.

EASIER SCHEDULE?!?!       HOW could it POSSIBLY be easier than the collection of creampuffs and cupcakes they got TEN WINS off last season?!?!

And it still won't mean a thing if they lose to every good team they face who aren't poseurs themselves.

Last season we had one of the toughest forecasted strength of schedule - # 2 toughest overall. https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2023-nfl-strength-of-schedule-for-every-team-eagles-cowboys-among-hardest-steelers-packers-have-it-easier/. The Dolphins played the most teams (6) that finished the 2023 season with records above .500.

In the 2024 season we'll have one of the easiest schedules by strength of schedule - tied for 4th easiest. https://thefalconswire.usatoday.com/lists/nfl-atlanta-falcons-strength-of-schedule-2024-season-saints/ (Obviously the schedule isn't out ye, but this is based by opponents.)

JMP wrote:Last season we had one of the toughest forecasted strength of schedule - # 2 toughest overall.  https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2023-nfl-strength-of-schedule-for-every-team-eagles-cowboys-among-hardest-steelers-packers-have-it-easier/.  The Dolphins played the most teams (6) that finished the 2023 season with records above .500.

I'm afraid you've gotten some bad info. Only three teams played fewer games VS playoff opponents last season. And thank God for that!

https://stathead.com/tiny/kzQNf

(If you sort by winning percentage, it might please you to know the Herberts were 0-8 against such teams )

DolFan 316 wrote:

JMP wrote:Last season we had one of the toughest forecasted strength of schedule - # 2 toughest overall.  https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2023-nfl-strength-of-schedule-for-every-team-eagles-cowboys-among-hardest-steelers-packers-have-it-easier/.  The Dolphins played the most teams (6) that finished the 2023 season with records above .500.

I'm afraid you've gotten some bad info. Only three teams played fewer games VS playoff opponents last season. And thank God for that!

https://stathead.com/tiny/kzQNf

(If you sort by winning percentage, it might please you to know the Herberts were 0-8 against such teams )

Nice find. I got my info from another site, but I didn't save it so I don't recall what it was!

Regardless, the Dolphins currently have the 4th easiest strength of schedule and last season at this time they had the 2nd toughest strength of schedule.

I was going to make this another thread, but...

I will put it here.

Another talk with the So. Fla. friend who is friends with a Miami Dolphins front office guy. Not related to the actual players, but this guy hears the scuttlebutt going around the front office apparently.

I was told paraphrased again "The Phins knew they were up against the cap this year, and were going to have to let some players go that they would have preferred to keep. I heard they did make an effort to keep Hunt but it was nowhere close to what he got. The idea is to play it conservatively this year and sign the players who are due for free agency next year when the cap is not as tight."

Here was the interesting thing which my friend classified as nothing but rumor or "crap-talk" he called it: There seems to be some sort of 'disagreement' in the decision makers ( I asked who this was and he said he was told 'Those guys...' and the person relaying this 'crap-talk' pointed towards where the big wigs offices were located, so... ) in whether to sign Tua to a big, big deal.

Grier and McD have been saying all the right things, but what are they actually saying? Are they saying we are going to pay Tua whatever he wants, as much moolah as it takes to keep him? Or are they saying, we are offering a sensible team friendly deal that Tua should sign?

Tua's agent seems to think he should be paid like a Burrows or Mahommes and I don't know if anyone believes Tua will ever be worth that much?

Also, which if true would be good news IMO, the scuttlebutt says to the Phins are looking to not trade for players so as to maximize their comp picks in next years draft. I will believe this when I see it, but hopefully Grier has learned something about the "Live-For-Today" method of team building.

Of course, right after I post this, I expect to hear the Phins have traded this year's first and more for Snead, and will be paying like he is Jalen Ramsey so...

Good stuff, FF. It would not surprise me if there is in fact disagreement about what to do with Tua. That money is just so astronomically high, it is not something to take lightly. And as 316 pointed out, all the big-contract QBs not named Mahomes have mostly been disappointments in one way or another the past few years. So yeah, it is a legit discussion.

Speaking of comp picks, I read that the two 3rd round comp picks in 2025 should be locked in for the Phins - as long as they don't sign a free agent to a $20 million per year contract, which I don't see them doing.

You never know with Grier IMO, JMP. After June 1st he may just decide to go after a big name guy who is still out there.

All that easy schedule stuff is crapola IMO. It's based on last year's team's records and the team could be very different this year. Look at Houston last year. They were supposed to be the one team everyone knew had no chance to make the playoffs, and then...

I look more at the Phins and try to gauge whether they are better or worse than last year.

And yes, after doing some more digging on Brewer, I am coming to the conclusion that he might not be a total weak-sister in the middle of the Oline, JMP. But he ain't Connor Williams good IMO. Maybe in this scheme he will be better?

finfanatic wrote:You never know with Grier IMO, JMP. After June 1st he may just decide to go after a big name guy who is still out there.

All that easy schedule stuff is crapola IMO. It's based on last year's team's records and the team could be very different this year. Look at Houston last year. They were supposed to be the one team everyone knew had no chance to make the playoffs, and then...

I look more at the Phins and try to gauge whether they are better or worse than last year.

And yes, after doing some more digging on Brewer, I am coming to the conclusion that he might not be a total weak-sister in the middle of the Oline, JMP. But he ain't Connor Williams good IMO. Maybe in this scheme he will be better?

Yeah, the strength of schedule stuff is certainly not an exact science and things change really quickly. Still, as a starting point I think it is pretty significant that we had one of the toughest schedules last season and one of the easiest this season. Games at Texans, Rams and Packers will be tough - but that's a helluva lot better than going to Philly and Baltimore and playing the Chiefs in Germany IMO.

I think Brewer will be better than Williams in run blocking, and a little worse in pass pro. But I don't expect much of a dropoff overall, if any. He may actually prove to be an upgrade if his run blocking is as good as I expect AND he can consistently snap the damn ball! LOL