Here Are The Previous Seven Teams...

To miss the playoffs with a 10-6 record and how they fared afterwards. It's more of a mixed bag than I had previously thought.

2015 Jets: Haven't made the playoffs or had a winning season since.

2014 Eagles: Everybody remembers the Super Bowl win. What they forget is that Philly went 7-9 the next two seasons, with a coach firing thrown in.

2013 Cards: Hopefully, this is the example the Fins follow, as they responded with playoff seasons of 11-5 and 13-3. No Super Bowl appearance, though.

2012 Bears: Fired Lovie Smith immediately after the season, then had five straight non-playoff, non-winning seasons with two more coaches being fired. They still haven't won a playoff game since with this season being just their second appearance in that span.

2010 Giants: Won the Super Bowl the next season--after going 9-7. Only one playoff appearance in the nine seasons since, though.

2010 Bucs: Just now made the playoffs again after nine seasons, only one of which produced a winning record.

2007 Browns: Finally are in the playoffs--after 12 seasons of awfulness.

I would argue that the Dolphins are in a different position than any of those teams. The Phins COMPLETELY tore the team apart in 2019, fielding one of the worst rosters in NFL history and still somehow winning 5 games. Then in 2020, which really is the first year of the rebuild since 2019 was a tear-down, with one of the league's youngest rosters that still isn't very good they won 10 games. Now, they enter the offseason with a ton of cap space AND 5 picks in the top 82 (including 2 in the top 18).

This is a unique position...I don't know that any of the teams you listed did a complete roster tear-down and then had the ammo that we now have.

The Tunsil trade looked good then, it just looks incredible now.

HalCHorn wrote:The Tunsil trade looked good then, it just looks incredible now.  

It'll look even better if the Fins get another QB to at least force Tua to stop playing like a fraidy cat

Just remember, Shula wasn't scared of drafting a first round QB coming off a Super Bowl appearance. He could've said everything was just fine, Woodley was still young, but he took a chance on greatness. Compare that to the Wanny approach, where he thought Fiedler was perfectly fine and all he needed to do was just build a team of All-Pros around him...

I expect a QB to be drafted (Kellen Mond, maybe?) at some point. I think this regime will keep taking and developing QB's.

I don't think Wanny tried to build a team of All-Pros around Fiedler outside of the RB (who he overpayed grossly for--that was an O'Brien worthy trade). His decisions on the O-line and at WR were as poor as his QB decisions (though Chambers had a good career). One coach was arguably the best ever, the other was a knucklehead.

Hal, I was thinking Kellen Mond as well. Very raw, but he has some high-end skills.

And as I've said all along, I am on the Sam Ehlinger bandwagon if we want a late-round developmental prospect. I know he is not viewed as an NFL starter, but I think he can be a very good backup in time...kid's a winner. There's a lot worse QBs coming off the bench these days, that's for sure.

HalCHorn wrote:I expect a QB to be drafted (Kellen Mond, maybe?) at some point.  I think this regime will keep taking and developing QB's.

I'm liking Trask more and more, although I really want Wilson at #3. And teams today are giving up on first round QBs staggeringly quickly, like a 12-year old running a Madden franchise.

I don't think Wanny tried to build a team of All-Pros around Fiedler outside of the RB (who he overpayed grossly for--that was an O'Brien worthy trade).  His decisions on the O-line and at WR were as poor as his QB decisions (though Chambers had a good career).  One coach was arguably the best ever, the other was a knucklehead.

Well obviously he didn't succeed I'm just saying that was his mindset. Just build the D up to a historically great level and bring in a top RB and POOF~! we'll win a title with Fiedler at QB! I mean, it worked with the 2000 Ravens, right? This is actually what Wanny was thinking at the time!

JMP wrote:Hal, I was thinking Kellen Mond as well.  Very raw, but he has some high-end skills.  

And as I've said all along, I am on the Sam Ehlinger bandwagon if we want a late-round developmental prospect.  I know he is not viewed as an NFL starter, but I think he can be a very good backup in time...kid's a winner.  There's a lot worse QBs coming off the bench these days, that's for sure.

Better hope Tua doesn't have one of his many injuries and Ehlinger or whoever they draft/acquire comes in and starts winning...

DolFan 316 wrote:

Better hope Tua doesn't have one of his many injuries and Ehlinger or whoever they draft/acquire comes in and starts winning...

Oh, so now we're back to the Tua injuries? You guys are hilarious. Thanks for making me laugh! I needed it today!

There have been two 11-5 teams miss the playoffs as well and they both did quite well afterwards.

I've had the feeling we'd go 10-6 and miss for a while now. With 10 often considered the magic number over the years, only the Fins could go 10-6 and miss the playoffs with an expanded playoff field.

If some encouragement is needed:

2008 Patriots missed the playoffs at 11-5, did quite well after.

1991 49ers missed the playoffs at 10-6, resumed their great playoff run afterward and stayed in contention for 8 years.

1985 Broncos missed at 11-5. 3 SBs in 4 years followed

If we had Tom Brady coming back from injury, I'd say the 2008 example would be very, very encouraging indeed.

If a guy like Lawrence falls to 3, you have to take him.

I think this team is still moving forward, so I expect a positive move this upcoming season. If we start to fall off, I'll be extremely concerned for the next decade.

I think the chance the Phins get better hinges on two things:

ONE - Tua continues to develop. As I heard some NFL analyst say today "Tua is ahead of where Josh Allen was in his first season." Now Tua ain't in Allen's physical abilities level for sure, but I have to agree. I can remember watching Allen struggle mightily in his first season. He had a QBR of 49.8 with 10 TDs and 12 INTs in 11 starts. And he did not get much better in his second season, but in his third, he has an 81.7 QBR with 37 TDs and 10 INTs.

Tua has a QBR of 52.9 with 11 TDs and 5 INTs in 9 starts...THREE of those INTs came against the Bills!

Tua is smart enough to develop, and I think once he has some seasoning, he will make a fine QB. Whether he turns out to be the next franchise QB for Miami...a QB that can CARRY the team... is the question. But I do think Miami can win games with Tua as the starter. He has proven that this season IMO.

TWO - Personnel Moves - I agree, there has been some trepidation about Grier. I am just WAITING for the next THUD of a move that makes me go "What in Heck's name is he doing?" But then again, he is not afraid to make the moves he thinks need to be made. That is part of the job and if it was easy, even DF316 could do it!

But the team is at the point where they have enough pieces to compete, but they need a couple of difference makers. Grier is going to have to stop looking ONLY for the safe picks, the building blocks, and start weighing a few of the picks for IMPACT IMO. The Phins desperately need an IMPACT Player or two...or three.... They have Howard and Jones on defense so they can play that man to man/ pseudo zone D Flores brought from the Pats, but who is an impact player on offense? Gesicki? Anybody else come close. Parker kinda/sorta when he is healthy...which is not very often.

An IMPACT player on the D-line or at LB; A WR who puts the wobbly knees into the Opposing DBs, or even a RB that makes the opposing D-Coord have to gameplan to stop. The Phins are missing those things and to take the next step, they need some of that. All of it would be perfect, but that just doesn't happen in the NFL, not in one draft or off season.

Or can it?

FF nailing it again! Great post.

This team can make the playoffs with four player acquisitions, but they're not easy to get.

1)  A prime pass rusher, a real stud. To me, in today's NFL, getting to the QB is the most-important thing. Sure, teams throw quick short passes now, but that also means that your cover guys don't have to cover for long, and it's damn near impossible to stop those dink-and-dunk plays. I'd rather spend on (or draft) a guy that can get to the QB so when they have to pass for real, they'll have a hard time doing so. The rules in the league now make it extremely difficult to cover anyone with any kind of efficacy, so you need to put the QB on his ass, repeatedly, until his ass is hamburger.

2)  An actual starting-caliber NFL running back.  We currently have zero starters on this team.

3)  An actual No. 1 WR.  We currently have none.

4)  One stud lineman, preferably center.  This leaves us with some need at OL, but I'd rather find an anchor than shuffle shit around the edges.  Honestly, I've been screaming to fix the OL for 10 years or so now.

Great post, Degarmo. All makes a lot of sense.

We got a strong pass rush early in the season from Ogbah, but he really faded down the stretch - he basically did nothing for almost the entire second half of the season. AVG ended up being our most consistent pass rusher, but he's not a guy that opposing teams need to specifically gameplan for. A real stud pass rusher would make everyone better on D.

At center, I like Ted Karras a lot and thought he played pretty well - but an upgrade would be great. I've been looking at Georgia center Trey Hill and liking him more and more. At 6'4", 330 he's a behemoth. Size and strength give him ideal anchor ability. He's a devastating run blocker and very good in pass pro. He's not the most athletic guy in the world, but he can move well enough. He did miss games this year after having both knees scoped, but that was reportedly a clean-up procedure to prepare for the draft rather than injury-related. He never missed a game before that, but obviously the knees will have to be checked out. Very intriguing prospect, and I've seen him projected everywhere from round one to the mid rounds.