My mock (4/13/21)

Based on what I think is likely:

1 (6) DeVonta Smith, WR.

Agree with JMP that he's the likely target.  Chase was gone, Pitts still on the board, but I think Smith is the guy for the same reason Chase is the guy for the Bengals, the QB already has chemistry with him.

At 18 Parsons was BPA, traded down twice.  Chicago offered 20 and 83 for 18, then Green Bay offered 62 and 29 for 20.  Negotiated 20 and 258 for 29, 62 and 214 which was accepted.

1 (29) Travis Etienne, RB.

I like the top 3 RB's a lot, I know some picked later will emerge, they always do (Mitchell and Sermon are most likely IMO) but we need a complete go to guy.  Etienne fits the bill if we trade down from 18 like I think we will at present.

2 (36) Trevon Moehring, S

BPA which we can do here with WR and RB filled.  No trade down was a good enough offer, so we take a S who has Pro Bowl potential, played in a system that asks a lot of safeties and should be starting in 2022.

2 (50) Kadarius Toney, WR

Actually don't expect him to be here, he's likely to go at the end of the first, but depth at the position could push him down.  If it does, can't pass on him here.  I do expect the team to double down at WR in such a deep class

2 (62) Quinn Meinerz, C

The trade down with Green Bay sets this up since I don't think he's there at 81.  

3 (81) Jordan Smith, OLB/Edge

He may not be here at 81 either, obviously, and if I had to, I'd trade up for him in the mid-third since he seems like a 3-4 OLB edge rushing fit.

3 (83) Kellon Mond, QB

If somehow he's still here with the other extra premium pick I gathered, I grab him.  Would like to get a developmental QB in this area or the 4th, like him better than Trask, Mills or Newman.  And I think that since Grier and Flores have seen wise teams thinking ahead on this position and developing draft picks, Miami will begin doing this too.

4 (156) Divine Deablo, S

Maybe we have our long-term safety combo in this draft?

6 (214) Patrick Johnson, OLB/Edge

One reason I tried to get an extra pick in this range was to grab a backup plan in case Jordan Smith doesn't pan out the same way Weaver didn't pan out last year.

7 (231) Deommodore Lenoir, CB

A good long term prospect in this range.  

No extra future picks in this scenario, but I saw spots where I could see Flores and Grier wanting a couple of extras to develop.  18 is the trade down sweet spot IMO

That's a grand slam draft, Hal!

I think the 2nd and 3rd rounds of this draft are going to be loaded with good players. Getting more picks in that range should be a priority, so I love the trade down from 18.

I think both of the top 2 RBs will be off the board no later than #24, as I expect both the Jets and Steelers (picking 23 and 24, respectively) to target running backs. The Cardinals at 16 could also target a back. If that happens, I'd be fine taking Williams at 29.

I just tried duplicating Hal's draft, but I couldn't get the Bears or Packers to trade down with me Every time he does one of these, Hal seems to have incredible luck. We NEED to get him somewhere in the vicinity of Grier on draft day!

Oh well, back to doing my draft. I still want to trade down from 18 with *somebody* And yes, Parsons was BPA at 18 in my draft too.

WELL...I wound up with less picks but here's how my draft went, after failing to duplicate Hal's early on.

#6 Smith.

#18 and 258 to the Browns for #26 and 59.

#26 C Creed Humphrey (Etienne was taken by the Steelers at 24 so even if I had traded down to 29 I couldn't have gotten him.)

Traded #36 and the Titans' 7th next year to the Cowboys for #44 and their 3rd next year.

#44 Toney (I figured I might as well have *one* other pick in common with Hal.)

#50 RB Javonte Williams. I was SO afraid he'd be gone that I almost took him over Toney but it worked out.)

Traded #59 and 231 to the Bucs for #64 and their 4th next year.

#64 Meinerz (getting closer to Hal's draft kinda sorta.)

#81 EDGE Jordan Smith (inspired by Hal).

#156 DT Jonathan Marshall.

And that was it for me as I traded the other two picks away. At least I got an extra 3rd and 4th for 2022 out of it.

I think the Phins need to draft a Safety, but I doubt they will.

I am starting to believe that if the Phins have to stand pat at #18, they go for an O-lineman. The one they have highest rated, either Tucker the Guard or the best OT left.

This assumes my fears about Grier going for OT at #6 do not come true!!!

I HOPE Pitts is still available at #6 and Jerry Jones makes a ridiculous offer for him. If there is enough draft picks in the deal, I would go down to #10 and HOPE Smith or Waddle make it to #10.

DolFan 316 wrote:WELL...I wound up with less picks but here's how my draft went, after failing to duplicate Hal's early on.

#6 Smith.

#18 and 258 to the Browns for #26 and 59.

#26 C Creed Humphrey (Etienne was taken by the Steelers at 24 so even if I had traded down to 29 I couldn't have gotten him.)

Traded #36 and the Titans' 7th next year to the Cowboys for #44 and their 3rd next year.

#44 Toney (I figured I might as well have *one* other pick in common with Hal.)

#50 RB Javonte Williams. I was SO afraid he'd be gone that I almost took him over Toney but it worked out.)

Traded #59 and 231 to the Bucs for #64 and their 4th next year.

#64 Meinerz (getting closer to Hal's draft kinda sorta.)

#81 EDGE Jordan Smith (inspired by Hal).

#156 DT Jonathan Marshall.

And that was it for me as I traded the other two picks away. At least I got an extra 3rd and 4th for 2022 out of it.

thanks for the kind words Dolfan. I'd love to bring whatever luck I could

This is a Hell of a draft. Anytime I can get a 3rd and a 4th next year for two 7ths this year I do it!

re: Toney. Yeah, he is 6th in the class, no doubt. The more I think about it he could slide; I think Bateman and Marshall go in the first, and 5 WR's total.

Outkick just did their mock, giving us Waddle and Harris in the first. I'd certainly be OK with that too.

HalCHorn wrote:Outkick just did their mock, giving us Waddle and Harris in the first.  I'd certainly be OK with that too.

I will be FULLY onboard with Grier if he drafts a WR/TE and then a RB with his first two picks. I DOUBT he will do it, but....

I am suspecting one of the first two picks to be O-line. If it is the second 1st round pick...okay.  But if it is the first....    

Just prepare because if our least-favorite scenario unfolds (I won't say nightmare because I really think 6 overall is an excellent spot given how the draft is predicted to unfold) - I'm convinced the pick will be Sewell and he's great value there. I think this will happen only if the first five slots go QB - QB - QB - Pitts - Chase. Atlanta is attending every QB pro day with multiple attendees, so looking more and more likely they realize this is a great opportunity to draft the successor to Matt Ryan. We can only hope.

Back to Sewell: the best OT on the board and likely the third best talent overall regardless of position (i'd say behind only Lawrence and Pitts - Chase in the conversation if he was taller) instantly upgrades not just one but two spots on a suspect O line. I say this using the "best five" philosophy - he will relegate someone who started a lot last year to the bench, while likely kicking someone at OT inside for an upgrade at G.

Let's also not forget, WR is DEEP this year. Passing on a top prospect at 6 overall doesn't mean we can't draft a great WR, as early as 18 or as late as 3rd round.

This may not be popular but my dream scenario for first round? Pitts at 6, Parsons at 18. As long as Parsons transgressions check out as nothing more serious than "really dumb things young people do" - he's the selection. Absolute beast with the football instincts to succeed, along with rare size and athletic ability. He will be a monster.

WR is only deep at slot receiver. For boundary receivers, it kinda sucks after the top 3 or 4. If you want a small, fast slot receiver this is the year to get him - and you'll be able to get a good one in almost any round.

The closer we get to the draft, the more I think that the chance of the Phins drafting OL at 6 is zero. It just literally makes no sense a year after drafting OTs in rounds 1 and 2. Seems like most people want Robert Hunt to play guard, but from everything I've seen, the Dolphins love him at RT and aren't going to move him. I think we will add interior linemen - at least one and probably two - later on, but a tackle doesn't fit IMO, and certainly not at 6.

I think the best move for the Fins so far was Deshaun Watson wanting Happy Endings.

JEGnj wrote:I think the best move for the Fins so far was Deshaun Watson wanting Happy Endings.

Yeah, we dodged a bullet on that one for sure! What a mess!!!

JMP wrote:

JEGnj wrote:I think the best move for the Fins so far was Deshaun Watson wanting Happy Endings.

Yeah, we dodged a bullet on that one for sure!  What a mess!!!  

Good grief!!

Just imagine if the Phins had ponied up Tua and some #1s to get Watson, and THEN all the sexual assault charges had come out!!!!

Egad!!!