Regrading The 2018 Draft

by DolFan 316 Thu Jun 03, 2021 12:46 am

Pete Prisco looks back 3 years later.

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/regrading-the-2018-nfl-draft-colts-buccaneers-get-perfect-marks-cardinals-fall-from-b-to-d/

Miami Dolphins
2018 Grade: B+

The Skinny: The Dolphins had eight picks in this draft, but only four remain with the team. They traded first-round pick Minkah Fitzpatrick to the Steelers for a first-round pick, so they did get value back for him. Second-round tight end Mike Gesicki is a starter, but he is in the final year of his deal and might not be back after the 2021 season. Third-round linebacker Jerome Baker has 37 starts in three seasons and is coming off his best year, including getting seven sacks. Fourth-round tight end Durham Smythe plays a lot in their two-tight-end sets. The best pick of the group has to be seventh-round kicker Jason Sanders, who is one of the best in the NFL.

How I did: I thought the Dolphins did a nice job with their first three picks. I thought Fitzpatrick would fit the team, but he clearly did not, although he's been a good player for the Steelers. I liked Gesicki as a pass-catching tight end and thought Baker's speed would add a nice element to the defense.

New Grade: C+

I think C+ is about right, considering the first pick only lasted a season and change with the team, and Ballage turned out to be a complete dud. Maybe I'd raise it to a B depending on my mood but that's it. What do you guys think? (As a side note this is why I've always viewed the "you can't judge a draft for 4-5 years!" mindset as utter nonsense. Teams themselves aren't waiting anywhere near that long to judge their picks these days, so why should I? Baker and Sanders might be the only players from this draft who are still around next season. Hard to build a title contender if your drafted players aren't lasting past their rookie contracts with you.)

by Degarmo Thu Jun 03, 2021 2:33 am

I think the grade gets lowered due to Minkah not meshing with the new coach. If he was in a defense here that was more complimentary to his skills, it might be better, but I think in the long run, our defensive scheme will be better without him. Gesicki is hard to measure, but if he continues his trajectory, he'll be worth keeping. That said, I think a C+ to B is about right for how it shook out so far.

by **JMP** Thu Jun 03, 2021 9:18 am

I'd give it a B+.

Gesicki is one of the top TEs in the NFL, arguably just outside the current "big 3" at the position. That's a home run pick.

Jason Sanders is one of the league's best kickers.

Jerome Baker is a tackling machine and excellent blitzer.

Durham Smythe has been a solid backup TE for the team.

And Minkah, despite the fact that he is no longer on the team, developed into an All Pro safety. Getting a first round pick that we used for a (hopefully) cornerstone left tackle gives the Phins an edge in the deal, considering that LT is more important than safety.

So out of that draft, when the dust settled we got a top TE, very good LB, top kicker, solid backup TE and a potential franchise LT. That's a great haul IMO.

by white1 Thu Jun 03, 2021 11:01 am

Agree with JMP I think the grading is too harsh.

To draft five NFL caliber players in any draft is a home run. It's nitpicking IMO to complain that none are pro bowl caliber players.

The scouting department (and our GM) did the job, they found talented players and were able to draft them. Minkah became collateral damage due to the coaching upheaval. You have to expect that kind of loss, and we're fortunate there wasn't more.

My last point brings me back to stability. The longer Grier-Flores continue to partner in Miami the better off we will be. They are going to make mistakes and "miss" on some players, but they are also learning more each season what we need for players to succeed in our schemes.

Building on that point, even if 2021 is a step back, I am doubling down on this front office and head coach. Let them continue to work together - we need the stability.

by **JMP** Thu Jun 03, 2021 11:42 am

Great post, white.

You know how I feel about stability: it's only good if you have the right people in charge. Fortunately, after what seemed like a century of incompetence, I think we FINALLY have a strong front office and coaching staff - and they know how to work together on the same page, which is the best part of all.

by CarsonChris Thu Jun 03, 2021 1:21 pm

Every team drafts NFL caliber players every year. If I'm not mistaken the goal is playoff wins. Gesicki is a starter but every team has starters. Where's the home run playmaker? The draft was average. We have someone that can tackle. Ooh, where's all the sacks and game changing plays? It's time we get game changing players. The team is full of serviceable players but game changers are what makes teams playoff and championship caliber. Where are they? C for players that keep us as a mid tier team.

by CarsonChris Thu Jun 03, 2021 1:39 pm

As far as TE, the next 2 TE taken were Dallas Goedert who has 10 yards less receiving and 1 more TD in his career and Mark Andrews who has way more yards and touchdowns than Gesicki. He was a 3rd round pick.

by **JMP** Thu Jun 03, 2021 2:27 pm

Baker had 7 sacks last season...not sure there are many 3-4 ILBs with that type of production.

Gesicki is right there with Andrews and Goedert in that second tier of TEs behind the top 3.

Those players are part of the solution...the next step is locking them up long term. But these two guys are not the barely-serviceable, average (or below) starters that we are used to.

by HalCHorn Thu Jun 03, 2021 3:10 pm

Scouts did a good job, and Fins did a good job picking the players.

Part of the reason Minkah was drafted was because of his versatility; I think he just wanted out when he saw everything being blown up around him in 2019 and forced his way out, not wanting to be part of what was then perceived as the worst team in the NFL. Too bad. If he'd only been patient---he did emerge, but now he's on a team starting to fade in a tough division while the Fins are ascending. We essentially were at the same level the Steelers were last year; they were out in the first round, and they had an off year in 2019.

Gesicki and Baker both worked out. I was hoping for Mason Rudolph with the 3rd rounder, but obviously I was wrong.

Sanders is among the NFL's best. It was a good draft by any measure.

by CarsonChris Thu Jun 03, 2021 9:45 pm

It was a good draft by Miami standards. We got a few starters that are solid.

by Umix10 Fri Jun 04, 2021 1:43 pm

Not sure how you grade drafts. It's no different than grading potential 1st round picks. When you revisit drafts 3 years later of course hindsight gives you a clear picture. You might as well hook up with Marty Mcfly after he uses the DeLorean to buy a Sports almanac.

My perspective, the draft should only have 2 grades Good or Bad. In this case it's good. We drafted solid starters and more importantly contributors to the success of this team. We gave up one guy to get another in a future draft. Minkah would have been solid in this defense but not if his mind ain't right. Kudos to the coaching staff for having the guts to get rid of a guy who wont fit.

by finfanatic Fri Jun 04, 2021 3:05 pm

The Skinny: The Dolphins had eight picks in this draft, but only four remain with the team.

That's a 50% "success" which is excellent for any draft. And it would be better if you count Minkah who is still starting in the NFL.
So say, 5 out of 8 players for 62.5%!!!

If that is the draft success rate from now on the Phins are beating the odds!!!

Remember some of Dumbstedt's drafts. Or even worse, Cam-Mueller's!!!!

I always say 3 years is enough to tell about a draft.

I agree with CC though.... At some point, just drafting "players who can play" is not going to be enough. You have to start hitting on some IMPACT Pro Bowlers. Maybe the Phins got some IMPACT with this draft. If they did not, then this draft is gonna stinketh mightily!!!

by **JMP** Fri Jun 04, 2021 3:13 pm

finfanatic wrote:
I agree with CC though.... At some point, just drafting "players who can play" is not going to be enough. You have to start hitting on some IMPACT Pro Bowlers. Maybe the Phins got some IMPACT with this draft. If they did not, then this draft is gonna stinketh mightily!!!

Absolutely - impact is the key. But personally, I don't judge impact by Pro Bowls. Gesicki, Baker and Sanders are all impact players in my book.

by CarsonChris Fri Jun 04, 2021 4:29 pm

Minkah was a good pick and the overall grade would be higher if he was still with the team. If Austin Jackson turns into a top LT then the grade may go higher.

by **JMP** Sat Jun 05, 2021 1:11 am

CarsonChris wrote:Minkah was a good pick and the overall grade would be higher if he was still with the team. If Austin Jackson turns into a top LT then the grade may go higher.

Yep, good points. I'm assuming Jackson will be the real deal in my grading...if not, my grade would go down.

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