Miami at Buffalo score predictions

it seems most of the "experts" still don't believe in Miami. oh they'll pay lip services to the amazing offense and the genius of McDaniel's plays, but when it comes to putting your money where you mouth is, the pull a Ryan Clark-esque back pedal. i suspect this is because they're secretly hoping Miami eventually losing so they can all hope off the bandwagon and say, "See, we knew Miami was a fraud all along."

Dolphins at Bills: Miami overwhelmed an overmatched Denver defense last week, but Buffalo can stop deep passes with the best of them and can challenge a so-so Dolphins defense, so the Bills should win this one.

https://www.usatoday.com/betting/sports/nfl-picks-predictions-best-bets

all but one of these "experts" has Miami losing a close game: https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/2023/09/27/miami-dolphins-buffalo-bills-predictions-picks-odds-week-4/70910468007/

btw, i've never heard of any of those guys. and even all the LV sportsbooks have give Buffalo the slight edge.

you know what, this is EXACTLY how McDaniel wants the world to think: just keep doubting us and we'll just keep doing our thing.

Miami - 36
Buffalo - 17

I guess I must be an expert then since I'm thinking the same thing. Also, I still have PTSD from the last two games that the NFL let everybody know in no uncertain terms they were NOT allowing the Fins to win. I'm just not convinced this game will be any different.

Bills 34 Fins 27 with three Fins TDs called back for phantom penalties that nobody sees except the officials and even *they* don't see them if ya know what I mean.

I'm real curious to see what Fangio does in this game. His defenses have been very vanilla the first 3 games, and he has left lots of room for opposing receivers to work. I may be wrong, but I think this is the week he unleashes those new wrinkles that we heard about in the offseason. I think we are going to see a stifling Miami D that limits the Bills' passing attack.

As I said elsewhere, the Bills scored just 16 points through three quarters last week - and needed the Commanders to have an all-out meltdown to really take over that game. The Bills also scored just 16 points against the Jets. OK, so they destroyed the Raiders - but that's not saying much. My point is, the Bills do not appear to be the offensive juggernaut they have been in recent years. On Sunday I'm expecting Lil' Joshy to give us the ball a couple of times, and I think their running game gets stuffed.

The Bills are allowing almost 6 yards per carry this season - a number inflated by Breece Hall's 83 yard run in week 1, but still. I think this is where the Dolphins have a huge advantage: the run game. I just don't see how they can stop the Mostert-Achane two-headed monster, not when they also have to account for Hill and Waddle, and Berrios too. This is something that really hasn't been an issue in years past, and I expect McDaniel to exploit. Of course, establishing the run will open up the pass eventually - and then we dominate. We do have to watch out for those sneaky disguised blitzes the Bills are known for, but getting the ball out quickly will counter that.

This is THE game. Arguably the most important week 4 matchup in Dolphins' history, because a win literally changes everything about this franchise and puts us, literally, in the driver's seat in both the division and the entire conference. As we know, most Dolphins teams of the recent past would choke this opportunity away and get curbstomped. But this is a new team. Our time is NOW.

Dolphins 40, Bills 16.

Don't let me down Miami. 37-27 Miami!

Let's take a trip back in time, shall we?

It's 1992, and the 4-0 Fins are traveling to Buffalo to face the 4-0 Bills. But this isn't just a 4-0 Bills team, it's a 4-0 Bills team that to this day scored the most points and had the largest point differential through 4 games than any other in their history.

https://stathead.com/tiny/diJAL

The big, bad Bills were favored by a whopping 10.5, a rather bizarre spread considering both teams were 4-0 And...the Bills lost 37-10, thanks to 5 turnovers

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/199210040buf.htm

My point is, that season was actually the last time the Fins got a playoff bye and advanced as far as the conference title game. (We won't talk about how that game went.) They even started 6-0. A win Sunday and...the next two games are against the Panthers and Giants at home, hmmm  

JMP wrote:Our time is NOW.

"What better place than here, what better time than now?"

I know he'd never do it, but wouldn't it be wild if Tua came out flipping double middle fingers to Bills fans like Bryan Cox did in '93? You talk about breaking the internet!

(The Fins won that game BTW.)

The weather in Buffalo at gametime is supposed be sunny and in the high 70s. After they lose, will the Bills complain that the Dolphins brought Miami weather with them and it was just too hot to play?

JMP wrote:The weather in Buffalo at gametime is supposed be sunny and in the high 70s.  After they lose, will the Bills complain that the Dolphins brought Miami weather with them and it was just too hot to play?    

This is the same fanbase that complained about the weather being to hot in Miami and then being too COLD in Buffalo when they lost to the Bengals so I'd say that's a definite yes

Which game in Buffalo did the Phins employ that 5-2 defense that stuffed the Bills running game and made Kelly look normal? 92 or 93? I think it was the infamous double bird game with Cox where the Phins used the 5-2 defense and then never used it again!

I hope JMP is right and the Phins D plays MUCH BETTER than they have been because all those shots Russel Wilson missed I doubt Josh Allen will miss.

I hope... HOPE... the Phins rushing attack is working. That will mean the passing attack is working and that will mean the Phins should win the game.

I want it to be 37 - 26 Phins but... I will have to see it to believe it.

'92 was the 5-2 D game and '93 was the double bird game.

I still have the newspaper clippings from both my DolFan granddad sent me (along with years' worth of other games). When I die all of that goes with me. I just couldn't bear to have to decide how to split it up between others.

Damn DF that was the Game I was going to Talk about the 1992 Bills Game when Oliver went had a Pick 6 and riding the Buffalo on the sideline. I just want a Win but it has been a while since we Spanked the Bills.

It's super early, but Miami is first in YPA on offense in both rushing and passing now.
Meanwhile the Bills are 10th defensively against the pass, and 32nd against the rush.  Yes, rock bottom, dead last in the NFL against the run.  They're giving up 5.9 yards per carry so far.

Not that the Fins can exactly gloat there, we did better the last two weeks but still rank 24th against the run on defense (4.6 YPC).  Despite missing some key parts on the pass defense, we're not far behind Buffalo there on D at 13th.

Offensively the Bills are 19th per pass attempt, and 3rd in yards per rush, not far behind us.
Obviously Allen is a big part of that but Cook is putting up an impressive 6.1 per carry.  I'd expect Buffalo to run a lot, especially if Phillips can't play. I'd also expect Miami to try to exploit that on Buffalo's D big time.

Objectively I'd predict a close Buffalo win up there, possibly due to a snapping miscue or special teams screwup since those two areas have been shaky.   But based on what I've seen so far, we're winning this division as long as Tua is kept upright.

If we can pull this off this week, then we have our most difficult division road games out of the way with a two game division lead. It was nice to win up there in 1992 the way we did, but even that win didn't give us that big a head start.

finskev wrote:Damn DF that was the Game I was going to Talk about the 1992 Bills Game when Oliver went had a Pick 6 and riding the Buffalo on the sideline. I just want a Win but it has been a while since we Spanked the Bills.

YESSS!!! THE BUFFALO RIDE!!! It's the only time in my life I've enjoyed seeing a man shake his pelvic area

DolFan 316 wrote:It's the only time in my life I've enjoyed seeing a man shake his pelvic area

really nice breakdown of what we might see when the Miami offense goes against the Buffalo defense:

https://touchdownwire.usatoday.com/lists/dophins-bills-tua-tagovailoa-tyreek-hill-mike-mcdaniel-sean-mcdermott/

Let's hope the Phins run game is working. If it is, it will tilt the game towards Miami IMO.

IMO the Fins need to win more than the Bills do. That doesn't mean they will, or that they WANT to more than the Bills, what I'm saying is that if Barfalo drops to 2-2 they'll still be just fine. It's already obvious the AFC East is nowhere near the four team alley fight a lot of people said it would be even a month ago. The Bills are going to sweep the Pats and blow out the Jets. Even if they lose Sunday they still look like a 4-loss team at worst.

The Fins on the other hand have a much more fragile, less sustainable look to them. If Tua is hurt yet again they're done for. It's far more likely the Bills go 2-0 VS the Chiefs and Eagles than the Fins do regardless. This just feels like a team that *has* to start at least 6-0 just to have a chance at the division going into December.

DolFan 316 wrote:
The Fins on the other hand have a much more fragile, less sustainable look to them. If Tua is hurt yet again they're done for. It's far more likely the Bills go 2-0 VS the Chiefs and Eagles than the Fins do regardless. This just feels like a team that *has* to start at least 6-0 just to have a chance at the division going into December.

Agreed to a point, but show me a playoff-caliber team that would be OK losing their starting QB. Josh Allen gets hit more than any QB in the NFL, and if the Bills lose him they'll be lucky to win another game. Hell, if they lose Diggs they're probably done.

I just don't see the Bills as that scary anymore. Teams should be fearing the Dolphins more than anyone, but even after scoring 70 all I'm hearing about is the Big Bad Bills. Fortunately, all that talk will be done before 4:00 PM Eastern on Sunday, when we witness the changing of the guard.

mercury22nathan wrote:really nice breakdown of what we might see when the Miami offense goes against the Buffalo defense:

https://touchdownwire.usatoday.com/lists/dophins-bills-tua-tagovailoa-tyreek-hill-mike-mcdaniel-sean-mcdermott/

Most defenses won’t show a lot of disguised late movement and safety switches against the Dolphins, due to the (legitimate) fear that any miscommunication will lead to major problems. However, the Bills have two veteran safties in Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer — at least, they usually do. Poyer is out for this game with a knee injury, which puts Taylor Rapp in the blender.

Somehow, among all the raving about how well Hyde and Poyer communicate, I totally missed this Not that Taylor Rapp is trash, but I'll take any advantage I can get against this team!

Bryan Cox Week.