State of the Dolphins Defense

This season might be the best season in over 20 years and it might be the best for a few more. I think Xavien Howard is done playing for Miami. He's on the decline and the age and injuries look like it's time to move on. Phillips might never regain elite pass rush status. It's one thing for a qb to come back from an Achilles injury but a pass rusher that's built on using burst and leverage to attack a QB. I don't think it bodes well for Phillips. Chubb, unfortunately he got injured going into the biggest game Miami has had in decades. 

Cam Smith doesn't play. Doesn't bode well for the future. 
Channing Tindall=bust

Ramsey is aging. Might have 2 years left. Corners age out. 

Wilkins wants to get paid. This team is on the decline based on injury and lack of drafted talent. Wilkins will look to sign elsewhere

This year was supposed to be are superbowl push. I don't think we have the talent moving forward to contend. 

A remake will be coming in two years.

I believe Wilkins will stay in Miami, but other than that I think you're right.

I agree that X is done in Miami. That makes CB a mess, largely because Smith is a bust and no one else other than Ramsey has any boundary skills at all. If Smith was a legit corner, we could walk away from X without even thinking about it. Now, dumping X leaves a gaping hole at CB.

We also have gaping holes at edge rusher (Chubb and Phillips will both miss a significant number of games next season and who knows if AVG will stay), ILB (I expect Baker to be cut/traded), DT (Davis will walk in free agency) and Safety (Elliott will probably leave in free agency).

It's ugly.

Very interesting post and topic, CC.

I agree with much of what you have said. There does appear to be a "window" and it's probably two more seasons after this one. On top of the factors you listed around our defense, we also have to consider the fact Hill is probably about that close to retirement also. Or, the reduction of his top end speed which is what makes him such a great weapon.

Let me add a couple of OPTIMISTIC takes around the team, and let's see what kind of discussion we drive

The most important question and the most difficult hurdles to solve have been solved in Miami. We have our QB and head coach of the future. No, I'm not going to worry about getting blown out in Baltimore. It looks to me like they've assembled a Superbowl quality squad and we're just not there yet. Witness what they did to the 49ers just a week earlier - and that's the class of the NFC they handled them easily as well. So, many teams across the league are trying to solve the question of starting QB, and head coach. We're not one of them IMO.

On defense, yes we have some aging stars like Howard and Ramsey. My counterpoint is this is still year one of making a major scheme change. Players like Ogbah represent the collateral damage in a major shift of defensive philosophy and approach. Clearly, Van Ginkel is one example of a player who was good before, but now can shine in a defense built for what they do well. The youth on the team is still there in players like Wilkins, Holland, Kohou - and some veterans still in their prime like Seiler, Long, Elliott (I think). There will certainly be decisions to make, and boundary corner depth is still a gap. None of that is unsolvable. With Phillips injury, you could structure a contract to give him security that's also team friendly. Wilkins is not a player you let walk. Fangio does not want to have to blitz, the front 4 - 5 has to be able to generate pressure and Wilkins is a big part of that. Corner is not an easy position to play in a complex defensive scheme. Cam Smith is either a bust, or he's making too many mistakes in coverage. I'm hopeful he will learn.

The offensive line has been an issue for about as long as I have been a fan. Watching our backups do a commendable job, bordering on excellent, against fierce pass rushes like Dallas and Baltimore, we can rest assured this is solved. And, it has to be the coaching. Why? Eichenberg looked like a lost cause now he's capable of playing all five line spots and has done a very good job at Center. We could probably afford to let Connor Williams walk if we can't agree on a reasonable contract. Austin Jackson went from borderline bust to a stallwart at RT and earned an extension. With THIS STAFF, Grier could probably take a "find a guard at Publix" approach and they will coach them up into a competent starter. The offensive line is a huge part of building an effective ground and air attack, and in a league where line play is always a problem, we can count this is another strength for our staff.

Finally, I will just double down on McDaniel. A head coach must be able to solve problems. We've seen more than enough evidence of that. The routes to the TE down the seam have started to emerge on a weekly basis, an aspect this offense was sorely lacking. The wide receiver screens that were getting blown up are now becoming effective, with Hill making a key first down late against Dallas one example. The firing of Josh Boyer and hiring of Fangio resulted in an immediate upgrade on defense. We have been number 1 in the league since Ramsey returned to the field. Again, I'm not going to over-index on getting run over by Lamar Jackson and a Superbowl caliber offense.

The evolution on defense will continue. I'd expect the team to add a few journeymen that match our scheme to the Sieler - Wilkins tandem and build around that up front, with AVG, Chubb and Phillips providing the pass rush. Baker and Long inside are a very nice pair and Riley probably sticks for depth. We could probably get a few snaps from Ingram while Chubb and Phillips are rehabbing from injury.

To me, the future is bright. We will definitely see roster churn but I am confident we have the staff to not only help find talent, but to develop that talent and match the scheme to the strength of our players on a continuous basis. We haven't done much of note just yet, but two playoff berths in a row show that we are on the right path. Go Fins!

Good post, white.

To me, the future is cloudy. While this is the best team and coaching staff we've had in decades, I'm not convinced yet that it will ever translate to a Super Bowl. McD and Fangio get outcoached in nearly every big game, and our star players likewise disappear in big spots. Whether it's Tua throwing costly INTs, Hill dropping easy passes, Wilkins unable to beat blocks, Holland missing tackles, etc...it just seems like every time we have a chance to make q statement and win a big game, we shit the bed in epic fashion and our "star" players cannot get the job done. And the coaching blunders are just unacceptable.

And then you look at free agency...so many questions. Can we re-sign Wilkins and AVG? What happens with all the free agents on the OL? Will we have enough money to add strong veterans at positions like pass rusher, OL, CB, S, DL and maybe backup QB? And the two McDaniel drafts so far have produced 1 good player out of 8 picks - that's a batting average of .125.

Something needs to change with this team, and I'm not really sure what it is. Talent-wise, it is a VERY strong roster - but clearly, that's not enough.

The elephant in the room is Tua. I've asked this before, but what do you do with him long-term? Next season he's making $23 million, which is fine. But if he continues to put up strong numbers, can you really give him a contract averaging $50 million per season if he continues to play poorly in important games? He led the offense to 19 points against the Ravens, 22 points against the Cowboys, 20 points against the Bills, 10 points against the Eagles, 14 points against the Chiefs. Of course those low point totals aren't all on Tua - but he's the QB, and that's just not good production. His job is to lead scoring drives, and not just against bad teams. You won't find too many people that like Tua more than me, but until he starts beating good teams in big spots, I can't be on board with giving him top dollar. Let's see what he does against the Bills in week 18 and in the playoffs - but so far, he simply has not been good enough when we need him most.

The Hill TD drop was inexcusable, for sure. No idea what happened there - a perfectly thrown ball and his route had him wide open for it. Hit him in the hands.

The elephant in the room is Tua. I've asked this before, but what do you do with him long-term? Next season he's making $23 million, which is fine. But if he continues to put up strong numbers, can you really give him a contract averaging $50 million per season if he continues to play poorly in important games? He led the offense to 19 points against the Ravens, 22 points against the Cowboys, 20 points against the Bills, 10 points against the Eagles, 14 points against the Chiefs. Of course those low point totals aren't all on Tua - but he's the QB, and that's just not good production. His job is to lead scoring drives, and not just against bad teams. You won't find too many people that like Tua more than me, but until he starts beating good teams in big spots, I can't be on board with giving him top dollar. Let's see what he does against the Bills in week 18 and in the playoffs - but so far, he simply has not been good enough when we need him most.

I agree this is a very interesting topic and a key team decision. With the way Tua works and leads, I think you pretty much marry the team to him long term. Hopefully, he can understand the "Brady Contract vs Watson Contract" and how those two impact team salary cap structure.

I'll go back to Lamar Jackson for this. Last season that team looked like a lost cause bordering on a rebuild. A few tweaks and key additions, and now he's playing lights out. My point is this: Even with as long as Jackson has been in the league, he's still evolving and improving.

I expect a similar trajectory with Tua. He's not an elite athlete, but what he does very well is throw with accuracy, and he has a really fast release. There is no longer any question on the arm - his deep ball is excellent. The quality of his leadership and work ethic has been widely covered by McDaniel and others. In my mind he will only improve over time given those key strengths and the intangible factors. I've seen enough to believe he has the "IT" factor (not only the championship in Alabama, but the game winning drive against Dallas, game one this year against Chargers, comeback win against Baltimore last season). More than enough evidence to suggest he is a gamer that can close games late.

And then you look at free agency...so many questions. Can we re-sign Wilkins and AVG? What happens with all the free agents on the OL? Will we have enough money to add strong veterans at positions like pass rusher, OL, CB, S, DL and maybe backup QB? And the two McDaniel drafts so far have produced 1 good player out of 8 picks - that's a batting average of .125.

Our drafting MUST improve, I agree on that. However, our scouting must be good because we've seen quite a few undrafted free agents turn into heavy contributors. Enough that it kind of balances out.

Regarding our pending free agents, AVG, Wilkins, etc. There are going to be some decisions to make. On defense I'd expect a good amount of churn as we tailor the roster to the Fangio scheme further. However, I think we will find a way to keep key talents, and bolster with journeymen through free agency. Ramsey, Long, Chubb, Elliott and Seiler have been excellent acquisitions to go with home grown talent like Howard, Holland, Phillips, Baker. So, while the names will change the team is showing they can find key pickups and keep the players that are vital to our success.

Good discussion by everyone.

Until we know what Grier and Co. are going to do in free agency, it is hard to make any predictions.

I have made my free agency take known though: AVG should be the priority. Then Wilkins as 1A. Or call them both #1 if you will.

I don't know if Grier is going to see it that way. I heard the hang up was over the bonus money for Wilkins in training camp negotiations. That seems utterly stupid IMO. But all these salary cap dumbarses seem to finagle over the bonus money for some reason? Getting Wilkins signed in training camp would have provided a huge benefit for this free agency season IMO.

CBs - Yep, I guess we see now why Grier went for a CB even with Ramsey onboard. Howard is getting long in the tooth for sure. And there are going to be some great CBs available in this draft, but does anyone have any confidence Grier and Co. can pick a good one. After the Iggy and Cam Smith busts? My guess is.... if they get rid of Howard, Grier will sign a free agent CB and then DRAFT a rookie either with the #1 or the #2.

Tua - He is what he is... a scheme QB who excels when the scheme is working and struggles when the scheme is disrupted. Can he dewvelop into a drop back, scan/read/ shuffle the feet, move to buy time and then drive the ball down field without it getting picked off, or be able to scramble and still fling the ball with velocity and accuracy? I would say NO at this point.
Ain't no way I would pony up 50 mill per for Tua! He is a very nice person but he is not a franchise QB who can load the team on his back and WILL the team to victory by his play. That's a franchise QB worth 50 mill per. That ain't Tua.

Now... all that said... if the team around Tau gets much better... even then... much better teams with the defense that can disrupt this offensive schemes timing will give Tua problems IMO.

LBs - I think the team needs a big, mean, nasty LB to give it some identity. Or heck, make it a NT or DT, or even an Edge player with a mean edge to him. I doubt it will happen the way Grier drafts though. I like Long and even though I have never been sold on Baker's value, there is little doubt the defense works better when Baker is out there. Would one of the top LBs in the draft help this defense? Sure. But would it help it better than one of the top DTs? Or a shutdown boundary corner back?

I do not think a total rebuild is necessary. Mainly, McD needs to build in a Plan B for when the opposing defense is able to disrupt his timing at the very least.
He keeps running the timing offense and calling the game like SUDDENLY... what hasn't worked before will start working!

McD has gotten better this year, so hopefully he will improve next year also.

That breakdown against the Titans is to date by far the season's costliest sequence. Hold serve there and we are already the 2 seed and resting everyone this week most likely.

That said, signing Jackson long-term and finding out he can be a long-term solution helps some on that side of the ball. We have not been successful in finding any long-term solution at CB with Howard slowing down and Ramsay likely to within a couple of years. LB must be addressed, and EDGE suddenly becomes a big need in the last month.

We will need to increase the draft stock, and that probably will be a two year plan IMO. Simply too few picks for two years in a row now and the margin for error didn't allow for guys like Tindall and (so far) Smith to be so unproductive. Obviously, Austin Jackson's story on the other side of the ball does show the light can come on a few years in, but Smith not being able to get on the field at this stage doesn't bode well at all.

I wouldn't focus on any one player next draft; I would look to accumulate picks again. For sure, this team has found productive players after the draft in recent years and that will need to continue.

As long as Grier is here Miami will be a mid tier team. Miami was lucky having the easiest schedule in the NFL. We've gone 1-3 against playoff teams. I think Fangio said we didn't have enough depth to go to the superbowl. We are seeing that now. The line is somewhat improved but some of the improvements are more to scheme than talent.  The line gets pushed around by physical teams. Physical teams make the playoffs. If we beat Buffalo this weekend we will have gone 2-3 against playoff teams. If we lose we will be 1-4 against them. That's an indicator that we are getting outclassed. Woulda, shoulda, coulda. This is the mantra of losing. To make a run we need some home run drafting. That will never happen with Grier. Until that change is made we struggle.

CarsonChris wrote:As long as Grier is here Miami will be a mid tier team. Miami was lucky having the easiest schedule in the NFL. We've gone 1-3 against playoff teams. I think Fangio said we didn't have enough depth to go to the superbowl. We are seeing that now. The line is somewhat improved but some of the improvements are more to scheme than talent.  The line gets pushed around by physical teams. Physical teams make the playoffs. If we beat Buffalo this weekend we will have gone 2-3 against playoff teams. If we lose we will be 1-4 against them. That's an indicator that we are getting outclassed. Woulda, shoulda, coulda. This is the mantra of losing. To make a run we need some home run drafting. That will never happen with Grier. Until that change is made we struggle.

A lot of those things are true - but most good teams are in the same boat.  Even the two best teams have bad games: the 49ers lost 3 in a row, including losses to two non-playoff teams (Vikes and Bengals); the Ravens nearly lost to one of the worst teams in the league - the Cardinals. And look at who the Chiefs, Bills and Eagles have lost to.  No team is perfect - that's how the league is today.

But the Dolphins are not a mid-tier team this season.  If they miraculously win Sunday, they will be #2 in the AFC and #3 in the NFL.  The Dolphins are one of only 7 teams in the entire NFL to have at least 11 wins right now.  That number could go up to 9 after week 18.  So, that puts the Dolphins as, at worst, a top 10 team - and possibly a top 3 team.  That's upper-tier.

There's a lot to work on for sure, in all phases of the game.  But this season isn't over yet, and despite the horrific loss on Sunday I would say the arrow is still very much pointing up.  There are a lot of question marks heading into the offseason, but anyway you slice it the Dolphins are one of the better teams in the league right now.

Great point JMP and that's where I was going. You can count very few teams in the NFL that have a high-performing QB and are sold on their head coach. We are lucky even with the remaining questions around Tua.

Just look at our own division. Bills are somehow underachieving casting doubt that McDermott will last long term, and they still haven't done much of note. The Jets? I mean where do I start. The Patriots are about to roll the dice and look for a new head coach and a starting QB. If my prayers are answered, they will hire the next Cam Cameron and draft the next Zach Wilson.

If we simply stay the course and continue improving just a little bit, season over season, we can win this division every year.

Getting back to the defense: Fangio's biggest job moving forward is to fix the secondary.  Without X, the secondary is weak.  One solution is to FINALLY put Ramsey on the opposing team's top receiver all game.  This week, that means Ramsey on Diggs all day.  Of course, that gives the Bills favorable matchups for Gabe Davis - but you can't let Diggs beat you.

Also have to figure out how to cover the Bills' TEs and RBs without Jerome Baker.  And how to simultaneously stop the run, contain Allen and defend the pass - as all three options are on the table almost every down for the Bills offense.  It's a lot to think about, and as we saw against the Ravens this defense isn't good at thinking on the fly.

Dallas is a powerful offense and somehow we contained them for most of the game. They had to go 17 plays for the go-ahead score, and that's a drive most teams cannot make without making a mistake and suffering either a turnover, or getting behind the chains and turning it over on downs.

The question is not whether we CAN do it, but WILL we do it against Buffalo. For whatever reason, we've been on the really wrong side of this matchup since Allen joined the team. When will we finally stop it?

Need big games from Wilkins, AVG, Long and Holland. All 4 of them were invisible in Baltimore. We don't have a chance if that happens against Buffalo - those 4 players are key, IMO.