Are we allowed to talk about the game?

It doesn’t seem there is much appetite to discuss the loss to the Ravens – and rightfully so. It was a horrible showing by the Phins all the way around. Not that it matters now, I will highlight a few of the things as I saw them.

Obviously the most disappointing thing was the defense’s inability to stop the Ravens at all. Baltimore just seemed to move the ball at will – on the ground and especially through the air. After seemingly coming together, what happened to the defense?

It was a risky gameplan from the start. The Dolphins struggle mightily with mobile QBs. Miami feared what Jackson on the run could do to them so they decided it was more important to maintain rush lanes and keep edge contain forcing Jackson to beat them from the pocket – and he did, badly. Miami’s lack of pass rush (few twists, barely any stunts or inside rips) was by design so as not to allow Jackson some escape lanes. The idea is to keep Jackson in the pocket and confuse and frustrate him with solid coverages on the backend.

It’s worked in the past (by other teams), so why not this time? The first easy answer is the injury to Howard on the very first defensive play. That forced an ineffective Apple into the game (there is a reason why he wasn’t on a team when Miami picked him up) who was targeted over and over. And yes, this speaks volumes about the unpreparedness (and possible lack of talent) of Cam Smith (on the heals of the same with Iggy). Compounding the issue was that this was Holland’s first game back in several contests and I think he struggled to get reacclimated quickly. I saw several instances of communication breakdowns where Ramsey and Holland didn’t seem to be on the same page (including Flowers TD). So the combination of the Howard injury and Holland’s slow start led to lack coverage in a gameplan that was specifically designed to rely on coverage. But even despite this, I think the Ravens still identified and exploited an issue in Miami’s defense that has been apparent for a few weeks now.

Go back and look at my comments in the Commander’s game thoughts.

mercury22nathan wrote:The LB coverage of guys coming out of the backfield was pretty sketchy. The Commanders 2 biggest plays (33 and 32 yards) were both down the sideline to guys out of the backfield with LBers in coverage

https://dolfancave.forumotion.com/t3230-week-13-game-thoughts-dolphins-at-commanders

This is really what made the difference. Coming out of the backfield, Justice Hill caught all 5 of his targets (not one was contested) for a 12+ yard average and a TD. Additionally, the FB Ricard and TEs Likely and Kolar caught 4 passes – ALL 4 of which were TDs confusing the LB coverage (Duke Riley being especially susceptible). I believe the Ravens saw the Commanders tape and licked their chops – look for more of the same from Buffalo.

The Chubb injury really sucks, but otherwise had no bearing on the outcome of this game (it will hurt moving forward though).

On offense, the Phins seem to have wasted a reasonably fine effort by Achane. Despite a some very nice throws, Tua was inconsistent at best. He did make some nice tosses and didn’t get any help from Hill and Claypool on their endzone drops. However, there were also several easy throws Tua seemed to sail way off target leading to a sub 60 completion percentage. His 2 interceptions were awful. Most of his off target throws and pics seemed to be the product of his rushing and anticipating a pass rush – a depleted oline will do that to a QB and this offense was manhandled by a more physical defense. His lack of escapability and ability to create off schedule continues to be a problem. He’s fine anticipating throws to pre-designed areas over the middle, but when forced to second guess and go outside in the middle level, he struggles. The Ravens secondary (a lot of backups) and coverage scheme was designed to specifically take away the medium, middle of the field windows (with safeties high and LBs dropping in throwing lanes) where Miami typically feasts. Despite the coverage, Tua still tried to unsuccessfully force these types of throws to Hill only connecting on half the targets. Miami tried to pull the Ravens out of the scheme with some quick short passes, but Baltimore was content to let Miami have these knowing their offense was doing damage on the scoreboard. Would having Waddle have helped? Maybe. But the bigger problem is Tua’s inability to rocket passes outside the numbers on 10 to 20 yard routes – so the Ravens just sat on the inside stuff.

Yes, the offense struggled and the turnovers killed them, but the lack of the defense to put up any resistance whatsoever doomed the Dolphins from the start.

I haven't had a chance to post much about the game. In short, it was a disgusting, putrid performance. I'll be posting more about it for sure.

Will also give your post a thorough read...

As much as I think Baker is not the answer at LB, the Phins really miss him when he is out!

As Merc states so eloquently, the Ravens attacked the Phins LBs. The Ravens did pretty much exactly what they wanted to do on Offense. Just a very disappointing defensive gameplan all around but I think Fangio recognized that the only hope was to make the Ravens work for yards and hope the Dolphins offense could score enough to make the Ravens come from behind. When that went by the wayside... the rout was on!

What the heck will the Bills do to this depleted BAD Defense on Sunday Night?? The very thought of it makes me shudder and despair!

As I have been telling everyone whenever we are faced with a loss like this by the Phins... LOWER YOUR EXPECTATIONS for this Phins team.

They have managed to beat ONE GOOD TEAM this season. And that was at home, and it was the Cowboys who have some sort of road-induced psychosis where they can't score or defend like they do at home.

And even then... the Phins offense almost blew the game by suddenly becoming scoring-inept.

So... the season comes down to this last game. Which, if we wanted to admit it, had we been told at the start of the season that the Phins would have a shot at unseating the Barfalo Bills for the AFC East title in the last game of the season... we all would have been very excited I think.

It is just the reality of "what could have been" had this Phins team not been so tragically flawed that makes this seem like sheer misery.

So, we shall see.

Can the Phins defeat a very good team at home and clinch the #2 seed and play a home playoff game? This is the next step on my Phins team evolution ladder. Can this depleted, defeated, discounted team find a way to beat their AFC East Nemesis?

Or... as it looks right now... Do the Mash-Unit Phins come out and play another bad game and then have to go on the road to face the Chiefs whose defense will stifle Tua like they did in Germany?

We shall see.

This is still the same team that makes me again tell all Phin Phans to "lower your expectations!" but I admit, it is hard to do when everything the Phins want is right there!! Almost within their grasp!

But then again... this is the same team that stunk it up against the Titans when the Titans did everything but GIVE THEM the game. This is the same team that has been soundly beaten by the Bills in Barfalo, stifled by the Chiefs in Germany, defeated by the Eagles who look to be imploding now, and were embarrassed by the Ravens. All road losses with the exception of that hideous, costly, oh-so-costly Titans blunder where the Defense played like they played against the Ravens!!

All I have to hold onto at this moment when the Phins fate seems dark and desperate is that the Phins get to face this final obstacle at home.

We shall see.

Good analysis of the game, merc.  

This was another team-effort loss.  The defense was non-existent, the offense was sloppy and toothless, and special teams gave up a 78 yard kick return.  There wasn't even a hint of complementary football from the Phins, as all phases of the game just plain sucked.  Well, maybe it was complementary: when one unit failed, the next unit failed too.  Just embarrassing.

The OL played decent considering all the injuries - but not good enough for a QB that panics when things break down, and not good enough for a WR corps that can't get open unless they are named Tyreek Hill.  Even Hill struggled to get open against backups, because the Ravens were able to put 2 and 3 guys on him without fear of the rest of the squad beating them.  Add in penalties, drops and overall sloppy play, and you get a 19 point effort.

The D was just an abomination.  When it became obvious that the "don't let Lamar run" plan wasn't working because the QB had all day to throw and was shredding the pass defense, Fangio failed to adjust and just kept doing the same things over and over.  As a result, Lamar kept completing passes, over and over.  The lack of pass rush was compounded by the complete inability of any LB or DB to cover a Ravens receiver - whether it be a RB, TE or WR, Ravens were wide open all game long.  Not to be outdone, the run defense decided that tackling was a bad idea, so the Ravens running backs were able to average over 5 yards a tackle and score 2 TDs.  Basically, it couldn't have been easier for the Ravens to put points on the board - any way they wanted to.  All the so-called stars on this defense played like garbage and should be ashamed of putting such crap on tape.  Well, all except Zach Sieler - the only bright spot in the entire game.

Coaching was the worst I've seen from Mike McDaniel.  Lackluster playcalling, stupid decisions (including yet another asinine challenge) and a lack of situational awareness (nothing worse than the end-of-the-half debacle)...a total mess. And on the other side of the ball, I'm still not convinced that Fangio prepared for this game at all.  How else to explain the total lack of adjustments when his initial plan didn't work?  It seemed like he had no idea what to do, and he seemed to just give up.  Of course, both coaches also left starters in late in the game for no apparent reason - just completely clueless and idiotic.

The entire team from top to bottom gets a grade of F- (edit: I accidentally typed D- first).  It is the worst regular-season loss I can recall in my years of watching this team...not just for the final score, but for the way the players and coaches failed to show any sign of life in a massively important game.

It's amazing to think that we can still get the #2 seed Sunday.  But realistically, even if the coaching staff got their heads out of their asses we are just too undermanned to compete.  No Chubb, Howard or Baker on defense, and who knows who will even be available on offense.  

This is not going to end well.  But hey, at least if we lose Sunday we'll get to go to Kansas City the following week.  

Baker can come off IR and Play this Week, Still just waiting for that One Game where Tua just wont be denied no matter what the other team does and carries us on his shoulders to a Victory this is the Game for Him to Show 30 Million some People that He can. My Brother was telling Me that he thought Riley was better than Baker after the last game I think he could be Later but not yet. Just need a Big Thumper in the Middle that can play All 3 downs like most teams need.

Just wanted to take a deeper look at what went wrong on the Zay Flowers TD.

VIDEO: https://x.com/finsfilmstudy/status/1742283368803275206?s=20

The Dolphins just pulled to within one (14-13) on a Sanders FG after Hill dropped an easy TD. With little over 3 minutes remaining in the half, the Ravens began their ensuing possession at the 25. The Ravens come out with a 3 wides, a TE and a single back with Lamar in the shotgun. Miami counters with a nickel showing cover 4 zone shell with Ramsey, Holland, Elliott and Apple (for the injured Howard) all in off-coverage responsible for a quarter of the field from the offense’s left to right. Kahou is in tighter coverage over the left slot. With the Ravens formation showing power to the left – a TE on the end of the line with 2 WRs inside the numbers, I think Miami is suspecting either a cutback run or a fake handoff Lamar keeper to the left as ILB Riley is in the middle of the formation and ILB Long is shaded over to the far left between the OT and TE. Flowers goes in motion from the widest spot on left sprinting right. Miami’s LBers respond by Long shifting to the middle and Riley shadows Flowers across the formation.

At the snap, the Raven’s RG immediately pulls left and the TE stays in and blocks down on the DE. This gives a classic appearance of a run to the left. Lamar keeps the ball after a less than deceptive fake handoff. All the elements are there for him to take off left, but he instead takes a quick 2-step drop and sets up to pass. Its interesting to note the Miami pass rush. Both AVG and Wilkins rush straight up the field on the offense’s right. Wilkins has a huge hole in front of him vacated by the pulling RG. He is engaged from the side by the C, but both he and AVG are very cautious to maintain their straight rush lane integrity without trying to collapse the pocket. I believe they were specifically coached this way out of fear of giving Lamar an escape route. Both Seiler and Chubb attack with a slight slant but both again seem more concerned with maintaining a gap area than actually collapsing the pocket. So why did they slant? Cause Kahou is coming on a blitz. The TE comes off his down block and picks him up easily. But again, he rushes straight up field and appears more concerned about protecting a lane than actually getting to Lamar. AVG, Seiler, Kohou and Chubb (who falls down) all get single blocked while Wilkins is rode past the pocket by the C and RB. The pulling RG ends up standing there with no one to block.

The result of all of this, Miami has 6 guys in coverage and the Ravens only send 3 guys out into routes. BIG advantage Miami, right? You would think, but…

Turns out Miami was only showing a cover 4 quarters zone and is actually in a single high (Elliott) with outside man and zone underneath (I think – more on this later). On a positive note, Ramsey locks down his man on the outside left (that was probably the only thing done well on this play). Ramsey is in man as he trails his guy into the deep middle. So why do I think its an underneath zone? Watch Holland. At the snap he immediately attacks down in run support – remember, Miami thought this was going to be a run to the left – but once its clear it’s a pass, he goes to his zone area of coverage on the underneath outside left while ignoring the WR streaking past him. See too that ILB Long moves to the left of the offense to cover the area vacated by Kadou’s blitz when its obvious a pass is coming. This is how I know it is zone underneath. Both of these guys have specifically been coached to get to an area – even though they are running to an area where there is no one to cover. They have both effectively taken themselves out of the play.

So now lets look at what is happening on the other side, the offense’s right. Flowers has come across the motion and hits a go route outside the numbers. The formerly outside right WR runs a simple 15 yard slant and turn (note that he ends up in about the same spot at WR from the left which Ramsey has covered). Although Elliott has deep coverage responsibility as he immediately backpedals at the snap, clearly that slanting WR has caught his attention as he makes sure that WR doesn’t run his slant deep behind the WR curling in from the opposite side (covered by Ramsey). Its only then, too late, that Elliott realizes no one is covering the streaking Flowers. So who was supposed to cover Flowers deep?

Well, if on the offenses left, the defense is in deep man with underneath zone and single deep middle safety, I would assume the same is true on the other side and that would make it Apple’s responsibility. I can not, in any universe, imagine a coverage designed for Riley to slide laterally 5-yards from the line of scrimmage and be expected to cover Zay Flowers, with a full head of steam, on a deep go route. There is just no way. I suspect Riley’s coverage zone was underneath similar to Holland and Long on the other side. I do think maybe Riley trailed him a bit too far outside because by the time he turns to see the WR slanting into the huge wide open hole he’s created, he’s well outside the numbers. Its hard to think Riley was expected to reverse course and cover this area into where that WR has slanted, but I don’t know who else is supposed to be there – the guy is wide open.

So what did Apple have to say.

“There was jet motion coming to my side and I already had a responsibility on the receiver before he came to my zone,” Apple said. “So I was just trying to buy time for Duke and he probably thought I was going to take his guy and I kind of was expecting him to stay on. So, I don’t know, just got to communicate before the snap and clean that up.”

https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/nfl/miami-dolphins/article283706268.html

That really doesn’t help clarify anything. So pre-snap, he had a single WR he’s locked in on. Is he implying that Riley was indeed supposed to run deep with Flowers and he was supposed to stay with the slanting WR? If so, I don’t know how he was buying time for Riley as there was no way Riley was gonna stay with Flowers – and as it turns out, Apple didn’t stay with the slanting WR either. Clearly, Riley had no intentions of running with Flowers (nor should he be expected to). I think Apple was so focused on covering his single WR that when Flowers motioned to his side (he forgot to switch his coverage), he screwed up with eyes locked on the slanting WR that he let Flowers speed behind him and he realized it too late. Clearly, Apple would’ve seen Riley in front of him not sprinting with Flowers, but by then he had already lost track of Flowers.

I’m pretty sure this was Apple’s screw up by not shifting his coverage responsibility in response to Flower’s motion.

It's a very good thing Grier drafted a Cb with one of the few picks the Phins had this season.

Great job as always, merc! That was one of many cringe-inducing defensive plays in that game.

It seems like every time a backup has to step in during a game to take over for an injured starter, that backup player is completely unprepared and there are tons of communication problems. We've seen it with Brandon Jones, Eich, Cotton, Jones, Apple...the list goes on. It makes me wonder just what these backups are doing in practice - or, maybe better to say what they are being asked to do in practice. The lack of preparation for our backups is disturbing.

i'm not going to go into as much detail about this play, but notice how the Ravens dropped 7 players into coverage, double covering every WR and yet still got pressure on Tua (rolling out).

https://x.com/The_Coach_A/status/1742999344494813695?s=20

cause Austin Jackson completely ignored the defender on the end of line (the side to which Tua was rolling) and instead chose to block the DT who had already been removed from the play by RG Jones.

poor play design or poor execution?

mercury22nathan wrote:i'm not going to go into as much detail about this play, but notice how the Ravens dropped 7 players into coverage, double covering every WR and yet still got pressure on Tua (rolling out).

https://x.com/The_Coach_A/status/1742999344494813695?s=20

cause Austin Jackson completely ignored the defender on the end of line (the side to which Tua was rolling) and instead chose to block the DT who had already been removed from the play by RG Jones.

poor play design or poor execution?

I'd say it is clearly play design since Jackson immediately went inside, without even looking at the outside defender. That's something that the center and/or QB need to recognize pre-snap, and then change the protection. At the least, have Smythe chip the defender before he released on his route. It should have been obvious. Just a bad job all around. The Bills do that to us every time we play them, so expect more of the same until the Dolphins figure out how to read a defense.

JMP wrote:I'd say it is clearly play design since Jackson immediately went inside, without even looking at the outside defender.

i think you're right. notice how Armstead pulled without blocking anyone. they are trying hard to sell a pitch to the left. i think the idea is that the DE will either take himself out of the play chasing the fake run backside or its up to Tua to by time with the rollout. by rolling Tua out, he effectively only has 2 targets - as the late crosser by Wilson would be an ill-advised toss back across the middle of the field as Tua's momentum is taking him right. is the deep route Smythe or Claypool (its hard to tell). why would Smythe be the primary deep route? in either case, that receiver fades inside the hash marks and then is supposed to cut back out at the 10 giving Tua a target in the front of left side of the endzone. but the underneath CB does a good job of getting in front of his route (he knows he has deep safety coverage) and kills all progress of the route. Tua immediately comes off the deep read and looks for Hill underneath. But Hill has done a curious thing. Had he kept running his cross toward the sideline, i think he would've been open for positive yards and might even beat the deeper defender to the edge. but he decides to cut his route up field at the hashmark. i think he believes he can get behind the defender, but once he realizes he can't, he turns back outside at the 12 and all teh back and forth left his blanketed. all of this has allowed the DE to close the gap and Tua turfs the ball.

i think the inability of the primary deep receiver (Smythe/Claypool) to run a crisp route away from the underneath CB and Tyreek's (secondary) indecisions on whether to continue the slant or break it deep doomed the play.

So just how easy is it to defeat the Dolphins pass defense with TE/FB crossing routes?

Well, first notice in the play above (where Tua has to turf the ball). Yes ladies and gentlemen, those are indeed LBers bracketing our WRs taking away any receiving threat.

And now lets look at Miami (turn away if your squeamish).

https://touchdownwire.usatoday.com/2024/01/05/lamar-jackson-isaiah-likely-patrick-ricard-todd-monken/

The first video is 12-yard TE TD. TE Likely lines up out wide right and short motions inside to the right slot. Elliott immediately diagnoses it and communicates the proper coverage. Hey, even Eli Apple got this one right and shifted his responsibility to the now outside WR (thanks to Elliott telling him). So who fucked up? Hello, Jevon Holland, I know you’re a bit rusty but where you going? Holland is so focused on the FB out of the backfield (who is Elliott’s responsibility), he takes himself out of the play and completely misses Likely crossing. From the endzone, you can even see Elliott saying, “No, no, go with him!” Oh well, I guess a few weeks in the injury tub will do that to ya.

And the next video is FB (out of a TE alignment on the right) cross. The inside left slot motions right. Kadou recognizes it. The outside left wide receiver runs a shallow cross. Kadou shadows him and passes him off to Riley (this means the Dolphins are in an underneath zone). Riley has recognized the FB released, after a chip block, and has run an even more shallow cross in the opposite direction, but there is no one there to pick him up. So who screwed up? It appears that Kahou followed the crossing WR too far across and got out of his zone and missed the FB coming across. But I do want to caveat that by saying that I am not 100% sure. Ramsey may have been supposed to stay home but instead shadowed the left WR all the way across the field as he passed through the underneath zone. This would be the appropriate coverage if Miami was playing outside man with an underneath zone. I think that is what they are doing, but Apple’s coverage on the opposite side is so poor (he gets turned around badly) its hard to say for certain. But I am pretty sure its Kadou who messed up (supported by his body language after the play).

But the point of all of this is to show how easily the Ravens passed off coverages and bracketed WRs while Miami was a complete cluster fuck of knowing who was supposed to be where. If they don’t get that fixed by Sunday, the Bills are going to eat them alive. Damn you DOLPHINS, why do you do this to me?!?!?!

Thank goodness I'm off Monday. Sunday Night I will be a mess watching this game. I can see some bourbon going down.

mercury22nathan wrote:

JMP wrote:I'd say it is clearly play design since Jackson immediately went inside, without even looking at the outside defender.

i think you're right.  notice how Armstead pulled without blocking anyone.  they are trying hard to sell a pitch to the left.  i think the idea is that the DE will either take himself out of the play chasing the fake run backside or its up to Tua to by time with the rollout.  by rolling Tua out, he effectively only has 2 targets - as the late crosser by Wilson would be an ill-advised toss back across the middle of the field as Tua's momentum is taking him right.  is the deep route Smythe or Claypool (its hard to tell).  why would Smythe be the primary deep route?  in either case, that receiver fades inside the hash marks and then is supposed to cut back out at the 10 giving Tua a target in the front of left side of the endzone.  but the underneath CB does a good job of getting in front of his route (he knows he has deep safety coverage) and kills all progress of the route.  Tua immediately comes off the deep read and looks for Hill underneath.  But Hill has done a curious thing.  Had he kept running his cross toward the sideline, i think he would've been open for positive yards and might even beat the deeper defender to the edge.  but he decides to cut his route up field at the hashmark.  i think he believes he can get behind the defender, but once he realizes he can't, he turns back outside at the 12 and all teh back and forth left his blanketed.  all of this has allowed the DE to close the gap and Tua turfs the ball.

i think the inability of the primary deep receiver (Smythe/Claypool) to run a crisp route away from the underneath CB and Tyreek's (secondary) indecisions on whether to continue the slant or break it deep doomed the play.

Love the detail.

There has to be a secondary option in this case, and that option has to get open very quickly if they are letting the edge defender have free reign to the QB. I guess in this case it was Reek, but as you said his indecision left Tua with no options.

mercury22nathan wrote:So just how easy is it to defeat the Dolphins pass defense with TE/FB crossing routes?

Well, first notice in the play above (where Tua has to turf the ball).  Yes ladies and gentlemen, those are indeed LBers bracketing our WRs taking away any receiving threat.

And now lets look at Miami (turn away if your squeamish).

https://touchdownwire.usatoday.com/2024/01/05/lamar-jackson-isaiah-likely-patrick-ricard-todd-monken/

The first video is 12-yard TE TD.  TE Likely lines up out wide right and short motions inside to the right slot.  Elliott immediately diagnoses it and communicates the proper coverage.  Hey, even Eli Apple got this one right and shifted his responsibility to the now outside WR (thanks to Elliott telling him).  So who fucked up?  Hello, Jevon Holland, I know you’re a bit rusty but where you going?  Holland is so focused on the FB out of the backfield (who is Elliott’s responsibility), he takes himself out of the play and completely misses Likely crossing.  From the endzone, you can even see Elliott saying, “No, no, go with him!”  Oh well, I guess a few weeks in the injury tub will do that to ya.

And the next video is FB (out of a TE alignment on the right) cross.  The inside left slot motions right.  Kadou recognizes it.  The outside left wide receiver runs a shallow cross.  Kadou shadows him and passes him off to Riley (this means the Dolphins are in an underneath zone).  Riley has recognized the FB released, after a chip block, and has run an even more shallow cross in the opposite direction, but there is no one there to pick him up.  So who screwed up?  It appears that Kahou followed the crossing WR too far across and got out of his zone and missed the FB coming across.  But I do want to caveat that by saying that I am not 100% sure.  Ramsey may have been supposed to stay home but instead shadowed the left WR all the way across the field as he passed through the underneath zone.  This would be the appropriate coverage if Miami was playing outside man with an underneath zone.  I think that is what they are doing, but Apple’s coverage on the opposite side is so poor (he gets turned around badly) its hard to say for certain.  But I am pretty sure its Kadou who messed up (supported by his body language after the play).

But the point of all of this is to show how easily the Ravens passed off coverages and bracketed WRs while Miami was a complete cluster fuck of knowing who was supposed to be where.  If they don’t get that fixed by Sunday, the Bills are going to eat them alive.  Damn you DOLPHINS, why do you do this to me?!?!?!

These are communication issues that I expected early in the season as Fangio installed his defense (and of course we saw those issues weekly for quite awhile). But by week 17, everything should be cleaned up and players should know what they're doing. Players should know how to pass off receivers in the zone, and they should understand their responsibilities by now.

Without doing a real dive into every game, it sure seems to me that these issues don't exist - or are at least minimized - when we play weak offenses. But all the good teams have exploited Fangio's zone coverages...maybe not the Chiefs so much, but certainly the Bills, Eagles, Cowboys and Ravens. Is it a lack of talent, or is Fangio just not able to get his point across? A little of both maybe???