Let's Talk...Approximate Value

As I've mentioned a few times before, Approximate Value (AV) is used by PFR to measure the quality of every player's season regardless of position. The higher the AV the better the season. A double digit AV season=Pro Bowl. A season AV of 15 or more=All Pro. An AV of 17-20 plus=historically great and likely record setting season. An AV of 7-8 is average and below that is below average. The more games played, the more AV a player gets, no AV is given for missed games. There are times when I strongly disagree with certain players' season AV numbers, but generally IMO they get it right.

What does this have to do with anything, you ask? Well, there's been some talk lately about this team having a talented roster. But are they really? AV says no. This season the Fins had just three players with a double digit AV--the same three as last season (Tua, Hill and Waddle). That's...not a lot. The Jets, Bucs and Rams had more and seven other teams, none of which won more than 9 games and only one that made the playoffs, also had 3. The top teams (the ones the Fins couldn't beat except for Dallas) all had at least 6 such players except for the Chiefs, who clearly had their weakest regular season team and in years and worst-ever offense in the Andy Reid Era.

https://stathead.com/tiny/TC2Aq

The correlation between number of players with a double digit AV and postseason success wasn't as strong this season as last thanks to the Ravens crapping the bed, but last season four of the five teams with the most double digit AV players advanced to the conference title game.

https://stathead.com/tiny/I8deC

So where is all this talent on the Fins? I will say that Armstead had an AV of 9 both seasons (more on that later) and had he stayed healthy for even 2 more games certainly would've joined the list but that's only one more guy. Where are the studs on D? Where are the Pro Bowlers let alone All-Pros? Ramsey clearly has the talent but hasn't shown it in Miami yet. Chubb was finally starting to live up to his contract and then got hurt (figures). Howard's been a shell of himself for 2 years (and I fear the same is about to happen to Ramsey). Phillips...well, let's just say he's one of the players I strongly disagree with AV about but then again he's yet to post a double digit sack season. Wilkins finally started to play up to his contract demands, sort of. But he's no Chris Jones or Aaron Donald and might not even be around next season. Mostert is another player who CLEARLY got shortchanged in AV but again, that's just one more guy. Holland is an obvious tier or two below Minkah, who's made four Pro Bowls and three First Team All Pros after getting traded away (good one, Grier).

If you want to see a talented roster just look at what the Cowboys, 49ers, Eagles, Bills and Ravens are trotting out. Even the LIONS had 6 double digit AV players this season--five of whom they drafted.

IMO it's more accurate to say this team is being carried by one great WR, one good WR, a QB who puts up fancy passing numbers until he absolutely has to, and a bunch of guys who are either injured, underachieving, JAGs or outright scrubs. There's certainly no large core of drafted stars and solid starters like the top teams have.

Part 2 coming NEXT~!

Now let's move on to our favorite subject...the O-line and how AV relates to it.

Did you know Jackson became the first Fins O-lineman not named Armstead to have an AV as high as 9 in almost a decade? Remember, 7-8 is average. No wonder Grier re-signed him so quickly, ANY Fins O-lineman who's even above average is as rare as an oasis in a desert. Or a non-woke person in California.

https://stathead.com/tiny/jwevt

You might scratch your head at the whopping THREE guys with an AV of 9 in 2014. I did too, until I discovered that the '14 team scored more points than any other in a 17-season span from '03-'19

https://stathead.com/tiny/UGmyP

And now here's a list of the number of Fins players meeting the 10 AV criteria for every season. Notice how the strongest teams in franchise history tended to have the most or had a lot on one side of the ball.  

https://stathead.com/tiny/5NXZB

Really puts into perspective the measly three from the last 2 seasons doesn't it? Even Gase's lone playoff squad had five

And a list of every season with an AV of 15 or more by a Fins player.

https://stathead.com/tiny/9M4Jk

DolFan 316 wrote:

If you want to see a talented roster just look at what the Cowboys, 49ers, Eagles, Bills and Ravens are trotting out. Even the LIONS had 6 double digit AV players this season--five of whom they drafted.

And aside from the 49ers, all these "talented" teams that you list will be sitting on the couch watching the Super Bowl, just like the Dolphins.

The Dolphins roster is just as talented as all those teams listed here - no question in my mind. Injuries were a huge factor in what happened to the Dolphins at the end of this season IMO. Obviously, the next step is for the Phins to stay healthy and get over the hump to advance in the playoffs. But the reason they failed this season is not lack of talent.

What your stats ignore is that the Dolphins were a top 3, or at least top 5, team in the entire NFL for most of the season. Injuries finally caught up with them at the end, but you act like the Dolphins were a garbage team that sucked all season - and that couldn't be further from the truth.

JMP wrote:The Dolphins roster is just as talented as all those teams listed here - no question in my mind.  Injuries were a huge factor in what happened to the Dolphins at the end of this season IMO. Obviously, the next step is for the Phins to stay healthy and get over the hump to advance in the playoffs.  But the reason they failed this season is not lack of talent.

Oh really??? Do you think Wilkins would still be unsigned if he had the season Justin Madabuike just did? Or that he's on the same level as Chris Jones? Chubb had *one* double digit sack season in his career before Grier traded for him--and still does. That's the exact same reason you used to say a Brian Burns trade would be stupid. Achane might be special--if he stops being as brittle as I said he'd be before last year's draft. You've gone on record MULTIPLE times criticizing Waddle, and now even realize that Tua's not good enough. Even the likes of Jared Goff has done 3 things Tua hasn't and likely never will: throw 30 TD passes in a season, reach a Super Bowl, and reach another conference title game. And NOBODY thinks he's all that. You really gonna say Holland's a good as Minkah or hang your hat on Has Been Howard? Come on, man.

I KNOW you're too smart to be playing the "woulda coulda shoulda" game. But here's the thing--even if you're right then all it means is that Ross/Grier paid way too much for their guys VS what the true elite teams paid theirs, just to get worse results.

JMP wrote:What your stats ignore is that the Dolphins were a top 3, or at least top 5, team in the entire NFL for most of the season.  Injuries finally caught up with them at the end, but you act like the Dolphins were a garbage team that sucked all season - and that couldn't be further from the truth.

When did I say "garbage team"? There are levels to this. The Panthers, Pats, Cards and Redskins Football Team Commanders were garbage teams. This team had a hard ceiling and even all the people who kept insisting the players were better than they actually were had to admit it even before the injuries got bad. 1-6 VS playoff teams says it all. Ironically the only playoff team they beat was the Cowboys, who have the exact opposite problem in that they're massive underachievers.

DolFan 316 wrote:

JMP wrote:The Dolphins roster is just as talented as all those teams listed here - no question in my mind.  Injuries were a huge factor in what happened to the Dolphins at the end of this season IMO. Obviously, the next step is for the Phins to stay healthy and get over the hump to advance in the playoffs.  But the reason they failed this season is not lack of talent.

Oh really??? Do you think Wilkins would still be unsigned if he had the season Justin Madabuike just did? Or that he's on the same level as Chris Jones? Chubb had *one* double digit sack season in his career before Grier traded for him--and still does. That's the exact same reason you used to say a Brian Burns trade would be stupid. Achane might be special--if he stops being as brittle as I said he'd be before last year's draft. You've gone on record MULTIPLE times criticizing Waddle, and now even realize that Tua's not good enough. Even the likes of Jared Goff has done 3 things Tua hasn't and likely never will: throw 30 TD passes in a season, reach a Super Bowl, and reach another conference title game. And NOBODY thinks he's all that. You really gonna say Holland's a good as Minkah or hang your hat on Has Been Howard? Come on, man.

I KNOW you're too smart to be playing the "woulda coulda shoulda" game. But here's the thing--even if you're right then all it means is that Ross/Grier paid way too much for their guys VS what the true elite teams paid theirs, just to get worse results.

Yes, Wilkins would still be unsigned - because they did not work out a deal before the season began. Not sure what your point is here. Chris Jones is the best DT in football - it's OK that he's better than Wilkins, because he's better than everyone else too. And he's also a free agent.

But comparing Wilkins and Madabuike? Wilkins has had the better career so far, so again, not sure what your point in comparing them is.

The reason I said no to a Burns trade is because we already have Chubb. Why trade for and sign a similar player for more money? That would, in fact, be stupid.

Yep, I do criticize Waddle for easy drops and for disappearing at times. He's still one of the best young receivers in the game. Just as Tua is one of the best young QBs in the game. News flash: fans criticize players - it doesn't mean they suck.

Yes, I do think Holland is better than Minkah. Minkah is great at getting INTs when the ball is thrown to him, but as an overall do-it-all safety, I'd take Holland any day.

But aside from all that, I just don't understand your constant need to shit on this team. Were we perfect? Nope. But we were one of the better teams in the entire league for most of the season, and made the playoffs - only to get derailed by an insane amount of injuries. The ending sucked, but trying to spin this narrative that the team is garbage is just not reality at all, no matter how many times you try to prove it.

DolFan 316 wrote:

When did I say "garbage team"?

You didn't have to say it. It's very clearly embedded in your posts.

I don't think DF316 was "shitting" on the team.

He used a stat to compare the talent level of the team to other teams.

Stats can and are manipulated but this one would seem to point out what we all knew: this team is not as good as the other playoff caliber teams. The one playoff team they did beat was the Cowboys in Miami and the Cowboys stink it up on the road.

This team does have some talent. Enough to beat a team not able to match up with said talent for sure. But against the better teams...

For a team that has yet to pay a franchise QB, and have only those few STAR (AV stat) players, and be 40 mill over the cap and be on the lower rung of playoff caliber teams (IMO) just points out the team's poor personnel management to me.

JMP wrote:But we were one of the better teams in the entire league for most of the season, and made the playoffs - only to get derailed by an insane amount of injuries.

absolutely injuries played a part, but even when relatively healthy this team struggled with teams over .500. and no, the team is not garbage, they are well within the top half of the league, but certainly not among the elite teams. the real question is: can the current regime do what is necessary to get them into that elite category next season?

I don't think DF316 was "shitting" on the team.

He used a stat to compare the talent level of the team to other teams.

Yeah, I read it the same way and I will go even further: While Grier has cycled through coaches, has he done ENOUGH in his core role for this team? Namely, talent acquisition. DF statistics say NO. He certainly gets credit for acquiring players like Waddle, Hill, Tua - keeping X in house after he blossomed - trading for Ramsey. But bottom line based on the AV stats, our roster OVER ALL is still not good enough yet.

And the evidence to support that theory has been piling up for two years.

I just want to thank you guys. I'd actually come here right now to admit making this thread was a huge mistake based on Jmp's reaction--and I can totally understand where he's coming from--and figured I'd just own it. I was going to leave my mea culpa post up for the rest of the day and night so that everyone could see, and then delete the thread altogether if I could. Nobody's perfect, least of all me. I can admit when I've been humbled and made myself look like a fool.

Except that according to you I actually didn't which is a MASSIVE relief. I don't plan on expanding and expounding any further though, since IMO I've said all about this subject that needs to be said. Hopefully I can patch things up with Jmp, I'm sure a thread like this wasn't the start to the day he was expecting.

It's very useful information and we should just take the emotion out of it.

Probably the best data I have seen to date that may actually illustrate what Grier's role has been, in an attempt to paint the composition and success of the team with what is due to his work, vs the work of the coaches.

Coaching certainly had an impact on the offensive line this season, so that backs up Grier's selection of the talent. Jackson developed a great deal earning an extension. When the starters were together early in the season, it was quite effective. Remaining passable even with all the injuries is a testament to the scheme, coaching, and Tua's quick release (league-leading at one point if not all season IIRC).

mercury22nathan wrote:
absolutely injuries played a part, but even when relatively healthy this team struggled with teams over .500.   

So did the Chiefs this season.

white1 wrote:But bottom line based on the AV stats, our roster OVER ALL is still not good enough yet.

Sure, looking at AV stats. But in the real world, the Dolphins were one of the league's best teams for most of the season. They fell apart when the injuries became too much to overcome.

As an example, the big bad Bills, who finished with the same regular season record we did, had the same OL for the entire season. We used TWELVE OL combinations. AV stats aside, might those injuries have impacted the Dolphins season just a bit?

Oh the injuries certainly played a part in our late season collapse. No question.

I still find the AV data useful in assessing Grier's job in acquiring talent. I'm not saying the team is trash, Grier should be fired, none of those things.

What I'm saying is we need to keep working on the roster and get it right.

The Chiefs are getting a lot of bad press based on their regular season stats. What they did is peaked coming into January, exactly the best time to be playing your best football. The Bills came closest to beating them, their other two games (including ours) were hardly "nail biters".

The way they are playing, it will be no surprise if they handle the 49ers in the Superbowl.

Back to the Fins: With the state of our salary cap, the roster is going to have a lot of turnover this offseason. That's not necessarily a bad thing. In fact, some of the shorter term deals give the Fins a lot of flexibility on how the team will look year over year.

I definitely expect Grier to spend the money on Wilkins, and on a boundary corner to replace Howard. Tua can be handled any number of ways, my guess is they will do something that continues to afford us flexibility.

We are solidly in WIN NOW mode. Now is not the time to let your defensive leader walk after a very good season. Nor is it time to tear down/rebuild/do something drastic. My expectations are they stay the course, figure out how to keep Tua happy while guarding against any down side, and continue to shape the roster according to the McDaniel / Grier philosophy.

AV is an arbitrary stat that some random guy made up for his website. He admits himself that it isn't intended to be a be all, end all metric, and isn't an ideal indicator for comparing individual players. I read the description of how it is determined, and I can't make any sense of it. I suppose it's a cool stat on some level, but I really don't know what it means. (The same can be said for passer rating, but at least that is universally considered to be one of the most important stats in determining how good or bad a QB is.)

Anyway, I agree that we need to keep building the roster - but how is that any different than the other 31 teams in the league, including the Chiefs and 49ers? Free agency guarantees that every team will have to rebuild their roster every offseason.

I heard a stat that most teams can expect 30-35% roster turnover - at minimum - every offseason. Again, using the Chiefs as a model, I think they have 7 or 8 starters due to hit free agency in March. They're likely going to field a very different team next season.

JMP wrote:

mercury22nathan wrote:
absolutely injuries played a part, but even when relatively healthy this team struggled with teams over .500.   

So did the Chiefs this season.

but clearly KC figured it for the playoffs - Miami, not so much.

mercury22nathan wrote:

JMP wrote:

mercury22nathan wrote:
absolutely injuries played a part, but even when relatively healthy this team struggled with teams over .500.   

So did the Chiefs this season.

but clearly KC figured it for the playoffs - Miami, not so much.

Yep, but the Chiefs went into the postseason healthy, and the Dolphins...didn't. I wonder how good the Chiefs D would be missing 5-6 starters? And we already saw what Mahomes did with an OL made up of backups when he put up 9 points in the Super Bowl a couple of years ago.

i agree with you that injuries absolutely played a part, i just don't think it explains all this teams failures this season.

i believe a greater factor is that by the last quarter of the season, defenses had figured out how to stop Miami's offense (deep cover 2 taking away the middle) and the better, more disciplined ones were able to do it pretty effectively. Miami didn't - or couldn't - adjust to deal with these defenses. And in my mind, that will be the most important thing this offseason - figure out what they need to do to move the ball and score points on these types of defenses (and staying healthy is only part of the problem).

mercury22nathan wrote:i agree with you that injuries absolutely played a part, i just don't think it explains all this teams failures this season.

i believe a greater factor is that by the last quarter of the season, defenses had figured out how to stop Miami's offense (deep cover 2 taking away the middle) and the better, more disciplined ones were able to do it pretty effectively.  Miami didn't - or couldn't - adjust to deal with these defenses.  And in my mind, that will be the most important thing this offseason - figure out what they need to do to move the ball and score points on these types of defenses (and staying healthy is only part of the problem).

The Chiefs never scored more than 20 in their 4 losses to playoff teams this season (and 3 of those losses occurred in KC) - does that mean their offense got figured out as well, and Reid didn't know how to adjust? At least we lost most of our big games on the road. LOL

I understand that we are all Dolphins fans, and that is the team we focus on. But the fact is, most of the criticisms we have with the Dolphins are things that are true of every other team as well - even the best teams. Yeah, it sucks that we got destroyed in the last 3 games...but that doesn't mean we can't compete and that the season was a failure. Only one team ends the season happy.

Obviously this offense needs to work on some things this offseason. But having an OL decimated by injury, and playing with injuries to Hill, Waddle and Mostert, absolutely impacted the offense's performance in the final few games of the season. It is what it is. McDaniel improved the offense from year 1 to year 2, and I'll think he'll make further improvements in year 3. We'll see.

JMP wrote:The Chiefs never scored more than 20 in their 4 losses to playoff teams this season (and 3 of those losses occurred in KC) - does that mean their offense got figured out as well, and Reid didn't know how to adjust? At least we lost most of our big games on the road. LOL

i know you want to keep pointing to the Chiefs, but the truth is, they have nothing to do with the Dolphins. the fact of the matter is that they beat Miami (twice) and have won 2 playoff games on the road against teams that beat Miami. they are the better team right now, when it matters.

JMP wrote:Yeah, it sucks that we got destroyed in the last 3 games...but that doesn't mean we can't compete and that the season was a failure.

well, but it does mean that Miami couldn't compete - cause they lost those last 3 games...and didn't look very good doing it (for whatever reason you want to pick). and you're right, i wouldn't (and haven't) call the season a failure. in my mind it was a disappointment that didn't live up to expectations based on the one and done playoff exit. but i kind of think i recall you were among the crowd that said if Miami didn't advance past round 1 of the playoff that you would consider the season a failure (but you absolutely have every right to change your mind and agree with me now )

JMP wrote:Obviously this offense needs to work on some things this offseason.  But having an OL decimated by injury, and playing with injuries to Hill, Waddle and Mostert, absolutely impacted the offense's performance in the final few games of the season. It is what it is.  McDaniel improved the offense from year 1 to year 2, and I'll think he'll make further improvements in year 3. We'll see.

i agree. and not only do they need to hope to stay healthy, but a talent upgrade at some positions (OL and 3rd receiving option) and scheme tweaks (short yardage, redzone offense and successfully utilizing the intermediate passing game outside the numbers) are just as (if not more) important if this team wants to get beyond the wildcard round next year. will they be able to do it? none of us know right now - but yes, we shall see. and that is the fun (and sometimes - ok, a lot of times - misery) of being a fan.

mercury22nathan wrote:
i know you want to keep pointing to the Chiefs, but the truth is, they have nothing to do with the Dolphins.  the fact of the matter is that they beat Miami (twice) and have won 2 playoff games on the road against teams that beat Miami.  they are the better team right now, when it matters.

I'm pointing to the Chiefs because they are about to win another Super Bowl, yet a lot of the problems/issues that people are killing Grier, McDaniel and the Dolphins for are true of the Chiefs as well. The Dolphins were 1 play away from getting the #2 seed in the AFC. And they did not have the luxuries the Chiefs did, of being healthy and having a cupcake schedule the last two weeks of the regular season, and then facing two playoff teams that could barely field a defense due to injuries. I just don't think the Dolphins are all that far away from the Chiefs.

mercury22nathan wrote:i recall you were among the crowd that said if Miami didn't advance past round 1 of the playoff that you would consider the season a failure

Of course the final outcome was a failure. This season was a failure for 31 other teams as well. But if you had told me before the season that the Dolphins would lose almost their entire OL for much of the season, play the last few games with their top offensive players either out or injured, and lose 6 starters on defense - yet still make the playoffs and get within 1 play of the #2 seed...I would have said that was impossible. So in that respect, I do think of that as a success, even if it is a limited success that doesn't come with a trophy or a ring. Managing to get as far as we did despite having to play short-handed every single week is an accomplishment, and a credit to Grier and the coaching staff IMO.

I just want everybody to know that it's taking every last ounce of my willpower to not point out that the Chiefs beat the Ravens 17-10 after that same Ravens team thrashed this one 59-16 just a month before. Nope, not gonna do it...

Oh hell, I just did, didn't I?

BTW I'm sure the Bills keep thinking they're not that far away from the Chiefs and unlike this team, they can actually beat KC in the regular season. How's that been working for them?

Jmp, you know you're my brother from another mother but this isn't the direction you want to take.

BTW I still stuck to my word not to discuss AV any further because this is a different subject now

Oh and one more thing...