Holding Grier accountable article from SI (Omar Kelly)

Hold Grier Accountable

You know, I have tried NOT to get too into DF316's "conspiracy" theories, but gol-darned if this ain't too entirely close to one of my posts about Grier that I am starting to think....

I did not know or realize, Grier has been with the Phins for 24 years!!!

Omar wrote:Chris Grier, who is beginning his 25th season with the Miami Dolphins organization, ninth season as the team’s general manager, and sixth as the top football decision-maker, seemingly is entering a make-or-break offseason.

I guess everyone can see this is the pivotal year for Grier.

I think the only thing Omar adds that I didn't was the name for Grier's preferred team building policy; "Live for Today".

Omar wrote:Grier's likely doubling down on the Dolphins’ live-for-today approach to building an NFL team, which leans on veteran additions more than building through the draft, and soon will ask owner Steve Ross to write substantial signing and roster bonuses to create some spending power, which will be needed to extend the lifespan of this roster.

Grier’s decisions made this spring and summer regarding patch work needed for this Dolphins roster will either validate that what he’s building has staying power, or it will lead to this franchise’s destruction, and an eventual reset because Miami’s decision-makers have made a mess of the team’s salary cap, which is evident by the fact most of this month will be spent trimming payroll.

Omar goes through the landry list of free agents and decisions and what Grier is going to have to fix, etc....

And then adds....

Omar wrote:And there’s a consequence to every deal that gets done, and every deal that doesn’t.

And at this point there’s only one person left to blame if this franchise falls short of everyone’s expectations, and that’s the man who has been around for a quarter of a century and has been in charge of steering this rebuild for more than half a decade.

Let's hope when the shouting and cursing and combine and draft and free agent festival is over the Miami Dolphins are going to be in BETTER shape than they were to start last season!!

I, for one, would love to see it, but more... I will be even more interested in seeing HOW IT IS DONE!

I can't shake this nagging feeling after reading Omar's article the other day.

We may actually have MORE PROBLEMS this offseason than we did last offseason. Let me list some of the things I am a bit concerned about:

- It makes sense to release X Howard as I said in another thread. However, it's not IDEAL. Howard is still effective, certainly not as great as he once was, but still a very good player. Releasing him in our "win now" window is a gamble - calculated - but still, a gamble...

- We stand to lose two starters in our interior O line, in that it's looking likely Hunt will price himself out of the Fins range, and the complicated situation with Conor Williams injury. Last season we had a very effective line when our starters were out there together, now it's looking like another major retooling.

- We have no starting EDGE rusher Game 1, and we're hoping Phillips can get back first but Chubb not likely until mid-season. There is no depth behind them, we are going to have to pray AVG can be signed at a reasonable cost or he walks too.

- It seems we never were able to acquire a solid #3 WR, even while drafting Easy E and bringing in a bevy of free agents. The third receiver in our system should FEAST given the attention paid to Hill and Waddle. We have the ultimate flexibility (upside) but once again we're going to try and draw a draft pick / free agent that fills this role.

- Wilkins isn't secured and should be. His price was lower last offseason - that's the only thing I can guarantee with his situation. Now we are in cap trouble and if we lose him, we lose a defensive leader and a very effective DT against both the run and rushing the passer. These are not easy to find.

- Our LB corps is still weak. Not good enough in coverage, not good enough against the run. Long seems to have been a nice acquisition. Another player or two like that would be great to see.

- I'm not all that worried about Tua. I believe the team will either strike a reasonable deal, or ask him to play on the option year. I don't sense an imminent holdout if he doesn't get a new deal, but stranger things have happened. If the team fails to manage the negotiations and Tua does hold out, that's pretty much a death blow for Grier, and most likely McDaniel too.

I know a lot of teams, maybe all of them, could say similar things about their rosters - but I don't follow all 32 teams. Knowing what is usually available in free agency (read: players other teams decided they could do without) - and the crapshoot that is the nature of the NFL draft - it sure SEEMS like a lot of roster spots to fill in one offseason?

In my mind that's where the concern is coming from. We embarked on a major tear down during Year One of Flores, fast forward five seasons and now we're shedding both starting players and salary... and we haven't won a playoff game yet.

Is the rebuild "done"? Not yet, IMO. We probably found our QB, McDaniel improved in year 2, and we certainly have a dynamic pair of receivers.... but it doesn't feel like we are "there". That nagging feeling.... is that we're just treading water again. Instead of investing in a QB, or doubling down on positions of strength, aren't we just patching roster holes all over again?

I really hope this isn't the case. But it might be. Articles like this make me really think about it...

It's only in the past 2 years that the Dolphins have sacrificed draft picks for veterans, with Hill, Chubb and Ramsey. Otherwise, the core of this team has been largely built through the draft (including undrafted players).

QB - Tua, Thompson
OL - Jackson, Hunt, Eich, Jones
RB - Achane, Brooks
WR - Waddle
TE - Smythe, J. Hill, Conner
DL - Wilkins, Davis
LB - Baker, Phillips, AVG, Goode
S - Holland, Jones
CB - Howard (now gone), Kohou, Needham, Bonner, Smith
K - Sanders
LS - Ferguson

As always, we can debate about the quality of the drafted players and who we could have drafted instead, but you can do that for any team. It may not be a list of All Pro players, but it is the core of a team that has had 4 consecutive winning seasons and back to back playoff appearances. This is the best roster the Dolphins have had in decades.

It would be easy to write a hatchet job for any non-Chiefs GM in the league. Grier may not be perfect, but I feel like he gets way more negativity than he deserves.

Sorry, couldn't resist



But seriously, if Grier allows AVG *and* Hunt *and* Wilkins to all walk, he needs to be fired immediately. Don't even wait until the draft. Not even joking. The GOP (Grier Opposition Party) is gaining steam and THIS time we will NOT be denied!!!

And W1 succinctly articulates my concerns for the Phins.

You did a much better job than I did talking about holes and problem areas.

As I said at the time, the Phins of 2023 had holes that needed to be fixed, and instead of just fixing THOSE HOLES, we now "potentially" have even more major holes that will need to filled... ATOP the same holes they had in the 2023 season when they managed to squeak out ONE WIN over a team with a winning record in a home game and got pants-ed by all the other teams with winning records.

Maybe as JMP says this whole salary cap thing is overblown, but I just do not see anyway the Phins are going to be able to bring in all the free agents they want back on the team due to cap problems. Which means, the guys they do get to replace them will be cheaper which USUALLY means not as good?? Or potentially not as good I guess I should say.

This whole "Live-For-Today" approach is the problem IMO. And plastering over the holes and problems with one year deals just seems like a relentless, endless cycle of the 2024 off season over and over again and again... A rebuild followed by another rebuild, followed by...

I do sincerely hope I am wrong about the Phins situation. And we shall see I guess.

DF316 - Apparently Ross doesn't give a flying fig about the Phin Phans. There seems to have been a strong groundswell of support for going back to the throwback unis, but Ross just casually shot it down with "I like the new logo."

JMP - We'll just have to see. I think Grier has reached the end of his rope. If he panics and trades picks for a proven player this year, we will know.

If Grier could draft, that would be one thing. The Chiefs just became the first NFL team ever to win a Super Bowl with a player carrying the league's highest cap hit--because they're able to draft well enough to patch at least most of their holes.

If only there had been more than ONE decent player (who can't stay healthy and I pointed out my concern about this *before* the last draft, look it up) from these last two drafts (sighs).

This is where the failure to take the likes of "Don't Call Me Apollo" Creed Humphrey, Zach Tom and O'Cyrus Torrence in each of the previous three drafts crates a domino effect in which a team has the same holes years later with nobody on roster to fill them. Nobody could've predicted Phillips, Chubb and AVG ALL getting injured so Grier gets a bit of a pass on that, but when you constantly miss out on players who could've had this O-line in much better shape for the likes of Eich, Tindall and Ezukanma, that's something I can never forgive Even the best teams make draft mistakes (why the Niners thought Trey Lance was a top 5 pick I'll never know) but they don't stack them year after year after year and tend to realize WHY they made that mistake and correct it ASAP.

finfanatic wrote:

This whole "Live-For-Today" approach is the problem IMO.

You're letting Omar cloud your view, which is never a good thing! LOL This so-called "live for today" approach was a 2-year thing, and it was THREE players that Grier traded for. Remember, we lost a first rounder because of the Flores racism BS (in the guise of the Brady tampering BS) - and that had nothing to do with Grier "living for today". This current roster was built primarily through the draft, and then bolstered with free agents and trades. No different than any other team, really.

white1 wrote:I can't shake this nagging feeling after reading Omar's article the other day.

We may actually have MORE PROBLEMS this offseason than we did last offseason.  Let me list some of the things I am a bit concerned about:

- It makes sense to release X Howard as I said in another thread.  However, it's not IDEAL.  Howard is still effective, certainly not as great as he once was, but still a very good player.  Releasing him in our "win now" window is a gamble - calculated - but still, a gamble...

- We stand to lose two starters in our interior O line, in that it's looking likely Hunt will price himself out of the Fins range, and the complicated situation with Conor Williams injury.  Last season we had a very effective line when our starters were out there together, now it's looking like another major retooling.

- We have no starting EDGE rusher Game 1, and we're hoping Phillips can get back first but Chubb not likely until mid-season.  There is no depth behind them, we are going to have to pray AVG can be signed at a reasonable cost or he walks too.

- It seems we never were able to acquire a solid #3 WR, even while drafting Easy E and bringing in a bevy of free agents.  The third receiver in our system should FEAST given the attention paid to Hill and Waddle.  We have the ultimate flexibility (upside) but once again we're going to try and draw a draft pick / free agent that fills this role.

- Wilkins isn't secured and should be. His price was lower last offseason - that's the only thing I can guarantee with his situation.  Now we are in cap trouble and if we lose him, we lose a defensive leader and a very effective DT against both the run and rushing the passer.  These are not easy to find.

- Our LB corps is still weak.  Not good enough in coverage, not good enough against the run.  Long seems to have been a nice acquisition.  Another player or two like that would be great to see.

- I'm not all that worried about Tua.  I believe the team will either strike a reasonable deal, or ask him to play on the option year.  I don't sense an imminent holdout if he doesn't get a new deal, but stranger things have happened. If the team fails to manage the negotiations and Tua does hold out, that's pretty much a death blow for Grier, and most likely McDaniel too.

I know a lot of teams, maybe all of them, could say similar things about their rosters - but I don't follow all 32 teams.  Knowing what is usually available in free agency (read: players other teams decided they could do without) - and the crapshoot that is the nature of the NFL draft - it sure SEEMS like a lot of roster spots to fill in one offseason?

In my mind that's where the concern is coming from.  We embarked on a major tear down during Year One of Flores, fast forward five seasons and now we're shedding both starting players and salary... and we haven't won a playoff game yet.

Is the rebuild "done"? Not yet, IMO.  We probably found our QB, McDaniel improved in year 2, and we certainly have a dynamic pair of receivers.... but it doesn't feel like we are "there".  That nagging feeling.... is that we're just treading water again.  Instead of investing in a QB, or doubling down on positions of strength, aren't we just patching roster holes all over again?

I really hope this isn't the case.  But it might be.  Articles like this make me really think about it...  

I get what you're saying, but the "more problems" you mention could all turn out to be positives. I know it's easier to look at things in a negative light and just assume all these "holes" are an insurmountable issue, but you're referencing things that haven't even happened yet. Will we lose Hunt, Wilkins and AVG? I have no idea - personally, I think we'll end up keeping at least Wilkins and AVG. Is losing Howard a downgrade? Maybe - or maybe whoever replaces him is better than the sub-par version of Howard we had this past season. Same with #3 receiver - the guys we had never stepped up, but maybe the new guy (whoever it is) will. My point is, the assumption is that these things are all negative - and they may not be at all.

And yes - we are patching roster holes this offseason. Just like every single team in the NFL, at least in the free agency era. You may not follow other teams, but I assure you - this is how the league works. Every team faces high roster turnover every offseason. It's not a Grier thing - it's an NFL thing.

DolFan 316 wrote:if Grier allows AVG *and* Hunt *and* Wilkins to all walk, he needs to be fired immediately.

Good song!

But anyway, it takes two sides to get a deal done. If the Phins lose any of those guys, it's not Grier "allowing" them to leave - it's a case of the player and his agent making a decision to leave (probably for more $$).

Wilkins will be re-signed, no doubt in my mind. I suspect AVG will too. Hunt? I'm not so sure - but there will be a lot of FA guards available, so he may not get the money he wants/expects.

I get what you're saying, but the "more problems" you mention could all turn out to be positives. I know it's easier to look at things in a negative light and just assume all these "holes" are an insurmountable issue, but you're referencing things that haven't even happened yet. Will we lose Hunt, Wilkins and AVG? I have no idea - personally, I think we'll end up keeping at least Wilkins and AVG. Is losing Howard a downgrade? Maybe - or maybe whoever replaces him is better than the sub-par version of Howard we had this past season. Same with #3 receiver - the guys we had never stepped up, but maybe the new guy (whoever it is) will. My point is, the assumption is that these things are all negative - and they may not be at all.

And yes - we are patching roster holes this offseason. Just like every single team in the NFL, at least in the free agency era. You may not follow other teams, but I assure you - this is how the league works. Every team faces high roster turnover every offseason. It's not a Grier thing - it's an NFL thing.

Oh, I am hoping that most of the moves we make turn out to be positives. And it certainly can happen.

It's not so much I'm looking at every roster spot as a negative or a problem. My concern lies in the sheer amount of moves that need to be made. Again, I don't know if it's a normal amount of churn, or higher / lower than the average NFL roster in a given offseason. It SEEMS to me to be a high number of spots that have to be shored up in order to get the roster in shape for 2024.

player development had improved in recent years: guys like AVG and Austin Jackson come to mind. But not getting anything for two years out of the first two picks in 2022 and nothing out of the first pick last year really hurt at crunch time when we needed depth.

At the very least we need to start accumulating picks, this is a rich third and fourth round especially this year and unless there's a surefire immediate impact starter there at 21 (and 53) I'd be looking to trade down. Of course, I always am, I want as many bullets as possible.

HalCHorn wrote:player development had improved in recent years: guys like AVG and Austin Jackson come to mind.  But not getting anything for two years out of the first two picks in 2022 and nothing out of the first pick last year really hurt at crunch time when we needed depth.

At the very least we need to start accumulating picks, this is a rich third and fourth round especially this year and unless there's a surefire immediate impact starter there at 21 (and 53) I'd be looking to trade down.  Of course, I always am, I want as many bullets as possible.

Great post, Hal. That lost first rounder in 2023 still stings - Flores screwed us.

I am all for acquiring more picks...can't say it enough.

white1 wrote:

I get what you're saying, but the "more problems" you mention could all turn out to be positives. I know it's easier to look at things in a negative light and just assume all these "holes" are an insurmountable issue, but you're referencing things that haven't even happened yet. Will we lose Hunt, Wilkins and AVG? I have no idea - personally, I think we'll end up keeping at least Wilkins and AVG. Is losing Howard a downgrade? Maybe - or maybe whoever replaces him is better than the sub-par version of Howard we had this past season. Same with #3 receiver - the guys we had never stepped up, but maybe the new guy (whoever it is) will. My point is, the assumption is that these things are all negative - and they may not be at all.

And yes - we are patching roster holes this offseason. Just like every single team in the NFL, at least in the free agency era. You may not follow other teams, but I assure you - this is how the league works. Every team faces high roster turnover every offseason. It's not a Grier thing - it's an NFL thing.

It's not so much I'm looking at every roster spot as a negative or a problem.  My concern lies in the sheer amount of moves that need to be made.  Again, I don't know if it's a normal amount of churn, or higher / lower than the average NFL roster in a given offseason.  It SEEMS to me to be a high number of spots that have to be shored up in order to get the roster in shape for 2024.  

It's the nature of the beast with free agency. As salaries continue to increase, teams will have more and more free agents - both because players have to be cut to get under the cap, and because more and more veterans are signing one-year "prove it" deals.

Most teams are in the same boat as the Dolphins - it's not a unique situation at all. I read an article recently - it was a free PFF article, but I don't have the link - that looked at roster turnover rates from 2020-2022. Roster turnover in that 3-year period ranged from 25%-48% - with most teams in the 30%-40% range. That is significant roster change year after year. For what it's worth, the Dolphins were at about 38% for that period. In comparison, the Chiefs (using them as an example of a top-tier team) were at at about 31%.

white1 wrote: It's not so much I'm looking at every roster spot as a negative or a problem.  My concern lies in the sheer amount of moves that need to be made.  Again, I don't know if it's a normal amount of churn, or higher / lower than the average NFL roster in a given offseason.  It SEEMS to me to be a high number of spots that have to be shored up in order to get the roster in shape for 2024.

Seems like you're just now realizing what I did two months ago--that the number of picks the Fins currently have coupled with the EXTREMELY limited cap space they'll have when they finally do get under just won't be enough. It's like figuring out how to buy a 10 grand item when you have only half that amount. As much as I want guys like Patrick Queen, FAs of that caliber simply aren't going to happen. There's no way around it, this team will NEED odds and ends like Bonner at CB and Brooks at RB to come through, simply because there's nobody else.

At least I can take solace in the fact that so far the Bills look to be in much worse cap shape...and I have no idea who they could even get rid of to fix it.

JMP wrote:It's the nature of the beast with free agency.  As salaries continue to increase, teams will have more and more free agents - both because players have to be cut to get under the cap, and because more and more veterans are signing one-year "prove it" deals.  

Most teams are in the same boat as the Dolphins - it's not a unique situation at all.  I read an article recently - it was a free PFF article, but I don't have the link - that looked at roster turnover rates from 2020-2022.  Roster turnover in that 3-year period ranged from 25%-48% - with most teams in the 30%-40% range.  That is significant roster change year after year.  For what it's worth, the Dolphins were at about 38% for that period.  In comparison, the Chiefs (using them as an example of a top-tier team) were at at about 31%.

You can't just look at raw roster turnover though, it's WHO leaves that matters. How many starters? How many top tier starters? Are most of the players who leave backups who can be replaced by rookies? Even the best teams can easily lose 20 players who are replaceable and contributed little to begin with. As long as the Chiefs have Mahomes they're contenders no matter who else they lose.

But you're right about one thing--player greed will ALWAYS outpace any amount of annual cap growth. Even if the cap doubled next offseason players would just ask for triple the pay!

DolFan 316 wrote:

You can't just look at raw roster turnover though, it's WHO leaves that matters. How many starters? How many top tier starters? Are most of the players who leave backups who can be replaced by rookies? Even the best teams can easily lose 20 players who are replaceable and contributed little to begin with. As long as the Chiefs have Mahomes they're contenders no matter who else they lose.

Sure, but who are the Dolphins losing this offseason? So far, we've lost Howard - who has been a shell of his former self and most Dolfans hated the past 2 seasons - and Ogbah - who was a backup. We have no idea who else might leave or who they'll be replaced with. And just because you lose a starter, it doesn't automatically mean that the position becomes worse - it may actually become better.

JMP wrote:

DolFan 316 wrote:

You can't just look at raw roster turnover though, it's WHO leaves that matters. How many starters? How many top tier starters? Are most of the players who leave backups who can be replaced by rookies? Even the best teams can easily lose 20 players who are replaceable and contributed little to begin with. As long as the Chiefs have Mahomes they're contenders no matter who else they lose.

Sure, but who are the Dolphins losing this offseason?  So far, we've lost Howard - who has been a shell of his former self and most Dolfans hated the past 2 seasons - and Ogbah - who was a backup.  We have no idea who else might leave or who they'll be replaced with.  And just because you lose a starter, it doesn't automatically mean that the position becomes worse - it may actually become better.

i think ideally when veterans age or become too expensive, the idea is that the good teams have drafted such that there is young, cheap talent to step up and fil the hole. maybe that will be the case with Cam Smith replacing Howard, but i'm not convinced that will be the case should Miami lose either Wilkins or Hunt. sure, they could try to draft guys this year and hope to get lucky, but it would've been nice if they had drafted their potential replacements a draft or two ago so they'd be further along in the development phase and be ready to step in now. as opposed to some of the guys they did draft which clearly aren't ready - and may well never be.

Exactly Hal.

Live for Today is great if you are doing it to win a SB, but if you are doing it to turn a 8-9 team into a 11-6 team, not so much.

My contention with this approach is it is not sustainable. When you are having to lose players you want to keep due to the cap and replace them with free agents on one year contracts, at some point... you reach a tipping point where even trading away all your picks for a "proven" player will not help.

We will see what happens this year. I am expecting Grier to "double down" on his "Live For Today" approach.

But maybe... maybe... Even Grier has seen the problems inherent in his approach. I doubt it, but, who knows?

mercury22nathan wrote:

i think ideally when veterans age or become too expensive, the idea is that the good teams have drafted such that there is young, cheap talent to step up and fil the hole.  maybe that will be the case with Cam Smith replacing Howard, but i'm not convinced that will be the case should Miami lose either Wilkins or Hunt.  sure, they could try to draft guys this year and hope to get lucky, but it would've been nice if they had drafted their potential replacements a draft or two ago so they'd be further along in the development phase and be ready to step in now.  as opposed to some of the guys they did draft which clearly aren't ready - and may well never be.

Yep, that's certainly the ideal scenario. But considering that every drafted player is a crapshoot and you never really know what you're getting, it's not always the way it works in reality.

almost fell over when i read this. can it be? has he finally realized it?

Grier acknowledged that having Tagovailoa on a cheap rookie deal has allowed the team to make big swings for high-profile players such as wide receiver Tyreek Hill, cornerback Jalen Ramsey and outside linebacker Bradley Chubb. Such moves likely won’t be as frequent with Tagovailoa signed to a lucrative extension.

“It’s not sustainable,” Grier said. “At some point, you have to reel it back and then add some youth and influx and then cherry-pick here and there where you go.”

https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/nfl/miami-dolphins/article286046011.html

building the team through large FA splash signings isn't sustainable!! music to my ears. if only he had realized this sooner. oh well, better late than never, i suppose.

yes, i'm pulling the chain a bit, but in every bit of humor their is a grain of truth.

That is definitely good news to hear!

But... I mean it was obvious.

mercury22nathan wrote:almost fell over when i read this.  can it be?  has he finally realized it?

Grier acknowledged that having Tagovailoa on a cheap rookie deal has allowed the team to make big swings for high-profile players such as wide receiver Tyreek Hill, cornerback Jalen Ramsey and outside linebacker Bradley Chubb. Such moves likely won’t be as frequent with Tagovailoa signed to a lucrative extension.

“It’s not sustainable,” Grier said. “At some point, you have to reel it back and then add some youth and influx and then cherry-pick here and there where you go.”

https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/nfl/miami-dolphins/article286046011.html

building the team through large FA splash signings isn't sustainable!!  music to my ears.  if only he had realized this sooner.  oh well, better late than never, i suppose.

yes, i'm pulling the chain a bit, but in every bit of humor their is a grain of truth.

Yeah...too bad he's still got all those expensive players at a time when he finally has to pay Tua and avoid letting his tiny handful of other non-awful picks walk out the door

On the bright side, at least Grier won't have to worry about paying anybody from the last two drafts! Now *that's* humor.

DolFan 316 wrote:

On the bright side, at least Grier won't have to worry about paying anybody from the last two drafts! Now *that's* humor.

LOL And funny as that is, it actually is a good thing, cap-wise, for the next couple of years.

DolFan 316 wrote:On the bright side, at least Grier won't have to worry about paying anybody from the last two drafts! Now *that's* humor.

wait. what? is that funny because none of those draftees are worth paying or because Grier will have been fired by the time it comes to pay them?

oh. never mind. i get it. i ain't laughing.

JMP wrote:

DolFan 316 wrote:

On the bright side, at least Grier won't have to worry about paying anybody from the last two drafts! Now *that's* humor.

LOL And funny as that is, it actually is a good thing, cap-wise, for the next couple of years.

although i would tend to think having more homegrown talent than you have money to pay them would be the preferred problem.

mercury22nathan wrote:

although i would tend to think having more homegrown talent than you have money to pay them would be the preferred problem.

Of course. But it is what it is. At this point, any cap relief in the next two years is good!