Miami at NYJ predictions (holiday edition)

ohh, you almost had me Miami Dolphins. i can't believe the local papers were actually posting articles about Miami's playoff chances as early as Week 10. there was talk of an innovative, attacking defense (until old man Vic exposed it for the outdated, rehash it really is). that once in a lifetime rookie talent at QB...well, he got benched because we ain't in Tuscaloosa no more.

Tagovailoa isn’t seeing his receivers get open like they did at Alabama, and acknowledges he isn’t yet comfortable enough throwing to guys that don’t look open but really are.

“If a guy is on the back hip of DeVante Parker, sometimes he’s not covered,” Gailey said. “You can throw it and he can make a play.

https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/nfl/miami-dolphins/article247392155.html

i have it on good authority (the wino on 42nd) that Gase long ago gave up on this season, but has purportedly circled this weekend to get the one in 1-15. a frustrated Frank Gore wants one last splash game in the twilight of his career with a 150 yard performance. yes, the talk in the Jets' locker room is this game is their last best chance to actually win a game this year.

so this holiday i am thankful to the Miami Dolphins for teaching me all those hard lessons over the years. all those seasons of raising my hopes and sucking me back in only to cruelly dash those hopes on the rocks of mediocrity. you almost had me this year. but Miami Dolphins, you are a good teacher. and i will not forget those lessons. i will not buy in and get fooled again.

Miami Dolphins - 16
New York Jets - 31

go ahead aqua and orange, make me eat my words (along with my turkey...and perhaps a little crow), i dare you.

Last week really threw me for a loop - seeing the Dolphins get trounced by a bad Broncos team, and seeing the Jets mount a late (but unsuccessful) comeback against the Chargers. I never would have predicted either of those things happening.

So, here we are: Dolphins at Jets. This is a game the old Dolphins lose 9 times out of 10. The question is, are we still the old Dolphins that showed up last week or are we the new Dolphins that we saw in Arizona?

The Jets are actually playing much better, showing a very good receiving corps the last couple of weeks and also playing stout against the run in 2 of the last 3 games.

The Dolphins won't be able to run the ball against the Jets, so Tua and the passing game need to win. The good news is, the Jets really have no pass rush. The bad news is, the Miami OL is trending down and the passing game blows.

On defense, I can't see the Jets running the ball well, but I do think they can do some damage in the air if our pass rush disappears again.

I don't have a great feel for this game. Ultimately, I think Jets' penalties and mistakes will be their downfall, and I see the Dolphins winning an ugly, low-scoring game relying heavily on Jason Sanders, 19-13. But a Jets win wouldn't surprise me at all.

If I was a gambler, I'd bet my house on a Jets win. There's no way this doesn't happen. Then they can happily go back to tanking--um, losing out and getting that #1 pick only to see Lawrence stay in school.

The Fins losing to vastly inferior Jets teams is a tradition that goes back decades, all the way to the '80 season when they somehow managed to get swept by a 4-win Jets squad who managed to be the Saints' only victim that year. Then there was choking away a 30-19 4th quarter lead to lose against another 4-12 Jets team in '89, getting whipped by yet another 4-12 Jets team in '92 (and barely winning the rematch), losing to a 3-win Jets team in '95, gagging away the season finale to yet ANOTHER 4-win Jets team in '14--after choking away a playoff spot to possibly the worst 8-8 team in NFL history the season before in the finale while generously handing the Jets their only win streak all season (seriously), and splitting with a 5-win Jets team in '17. Even the infamous 1-15 Jets squad of '96 had 14-0 leads in both games VS the Fins that season before losing.

Clearly that Denver game has shaken our fan base to the core!

I will play the optimist here for a couple of reasons. One, the Broncos are not as bad as their record reflects. In fact, what was killing them was Lock turning the ball over and you can't expect that every single week. He had just one and they recovered. Two, even with allowing those 3rd and long conversions, even with the offense going three and out all day, even with the total failure running the ball and receivers failing to get open, we were a Fitz INT from tying (or winning) the game. All this at Mile High field, an away game where the atmosphere clearly favors the Broncos and you could see that in Miami players getting gassed early.

The Jets are no match for our team. They don't have the talent, they don't have the leadership or the coaching to match up. During the winning streak, we saw excellent performances from offense, defense and special teams - and in the best games all three. I expect that again this week.

Miami will be especially hungry for a win after dropping a winnable one against Denver. This team has leadership, character and resolve that past teams could only dream of under the lackluster coaching of Adam Gase and Joe Philbin.

No. Miami wins this one and convincingly. Fins 28 - Jets 6.

White bringing the voice of reason!

We are the better team in all phases, including coaching, so we will win. But I do think it will be closer than it should be, as that Jets' team has unearthed some players (especially at WR) the last few weeks and they haven't given up like I expected.

We will tank with Tua

My prediction. Tua 3 sacks, a fumble, and 2 picks. Jets celebrate with an easy victory as Miami can’t generate any offense.

Not seeing his guys open, that quote, that really bothers me. The great ones don't learn that when they get to the NFL. They innately understand that a window is open for a receiver when he can get his hands on it, regardless of coverage. That has me very, very concerned.

Still, I think Miami wins, 16-14. Eight safeties.

Degarmo wrote:Not seeing his guys open, that quote, that really bothers me.  The great ones don't learn that when they get to the NFL.  They innately understand that a window is open for a receiver when he can get his hands on it, regardless of coverage.  That has me very, very concerned.

Still, I think Miami wins, 16-14.  Eight safeties.

I disagree (about both Tua and the 8 safeties - HA!!). Throwing receivers open, and learning how to connect with receivers that aren't open, is an art. It's something that has to be learned and only comes with increased reps. Tua is still learning these receivers, and he's also playing with new receivers every game. That kind of trust takes time. He's confident and has tremendous accuracy. It will come.

Tua is listed in the injury report and may be a scratch.

Miami 24-10 if Tua is on the bench. Flip it if he plays.

He jammed his thumb on a helmet in practice. Should be good to go.

JMP wrote:He jammed his thumb on a helmet in practice.  Should be good to go.

Oh, THAT'S not an ominous sign or anything I'm sure with an injured thumb, Tua should be able to grip the ball just fine!

(Ignore that noise in the background, that is definitely NOT me revving up the bust train, nope, you hear nothing.)

I just saw that Tua was downgraded to doubtful, so I guess he isn't playing tomorrow. That sucks.

I'll bet every team in the league wishes they could draft a bust like Tua...6 TDs, 0 INTs, 100 passer rating and a 3-1 record in his first 4 starts.  Epic fail for sure.  

We had some early success. We had some success in all theee phases. I think that what we need to look at is that Miami’s success is predicated on all 3 phases working at the same time. Our offense isn’t built for pass heavy medium to deep ball looks. Floress wants a multi faceted attack on the run and the pass.

Parker is coming on and great at contested shots downfield and the red zone, but he’s not a between the hashes kinda receiver. Callaway, Grant, Wilson, Bowden, Perry could all be players that fit more of Tua’s skill set as a QB. Surround him with quicker than faster receivers like BESS and WELKER.. we need people who can work the short yardage routes who gets seperation for YAC
.

Now how is someone actually Close enough to Tua that he can hit there Helmet and Jam his Thumb. During Practice. Damn.

JMP wrote:I'll bet every team in the league wishes they could draft a bust like Tua...6 TDs, 0 INTs, 100 passer rating and a 3-1 record in his first 4 starts.  Epic fail for sure.  

Every team wants a QB that can average a 100 yards a game

Tua’s so bad they benched him and called it a thumb injury. Next week it will be a hang nail