PFF mock draft simulator is up + all things Draft related

Continuing with the theme of Approximate Value, this team's O-line has been so bad for so long that Terron Armstead last season became the first Fins player there to have a season with an AV of at least 9 in EIGHT YEARS And that was with him missing four games

https://stathead.com/tiny/tmoHd

That means from 2015-21 every single O-lineman on this team was average at best (and usually worse).

Damn, that's sad.

DolFan 316 wrote:

mercury22nathan wrote:

DolFan 316 wrote:(Hunt hasn't had one such season yet, although his AV has improved two years in a row so barring injury I can see it happening this time around.)

and i'm still not convinced moving him to RG and refusing to let him man RT (or even compete at it) while happily seemingly shuffling every other o-linemen all over the line was (is) the wisest choice.  let's be honest, he's been good/ok at RG, but has he been so significantly better than he would have been at RT - or have any of the other of a plethora of RTs been than much better than he would've been?

I'm totally with you on that. The cavalier way this team has treated the RT position lately is baffling, befuddling and bewildering to me. It's as if they don't even realize that's Tua's blind side!

I am not baffled, bewildered, and befuddled as much as I am BeFeared, er... Afeared... I mean Afraid that Grier's lack of ability with the Oline personnel is going to be the downfall of another season for the Dolphins!

I had a nice discussion with a friend from So. Fla awhile back and he seems to think Grier is betting that Jackson and Eichenberg will both stay healthy this year and that the Oline with both of them playing will be much improved. And while keeping both of them healthy and on the Oline may add some consistency to the OLines play, I am not all that sanguine that either is the answer the Phins should be looking for on the Oline.

I mean, the first thing you should be looking at is what has to happen for the Phins to have any shot at a deep playoff run in 2023?
There is only ONE MAJOR THING IMO and that is keep Tua healthy.

And that is predicated on two things which can both be summed up by one thing really IMO: Running Game and Oline play. Improve the Oline and run the ball more and that will keep Tua healthy.

But standing PAT on the OLine and hoping that Eichenberg and Jackson stay healthy seems like worrying about upgrading lifejackets on the Titanic instead of staying out of iceberg laden waters!

Instead of fixing the Oline, Grier seems to think the chances of losing two starters for extended periods of time will not happen again???

I am at a loss to understand what he is thinking there when Armstead is just one mis-step from being out for the entire season, but...

After some due consideration, I have come up with three possible rationales: Take your pick...

ONE - Grier is an idjit when it comes to the Oline. His draft picks stink, and his free agent signings haven't worked out all that great until recently Williams and Armstead seem to, so... If the Phins had a 1st round pick this season, we would probably be able to tell more, but...

TWO - Grier is waiting until after June 1st when that B Jones money comes available and is going to pick up a Vet who gets cut late? There should be a good one or two, but this assumes One above is not true, and that Grier actually BELIEVES the Phins current OLine needs help! Right now, I am not sure about one above and I am not sure Grier thinks the Phins Line does need help?

THREE - Grier is going to use at least one of the Phins four picks (unless he trades some more away for somebody else!) on an Olineman. Where the Phins are picking, UNLESS somebody slides, I doubt they get a OT/OG that will unseat Armstead or Jackson. If this is the route, I sincerely hope whomever they pick DOES UNSEAT one of them, but...

When you look back on the Dolphins 2022 season, it seems fairly obvious that Tua's concussions totally warped the season. The bad defense did the rest. With Fangio onboard, the defense is HOPEFULLY FIXED! So keeping Tua healthy should be the MAIN PRIORITY. All the moves made on the Oline seem to be about addressing DEPTH instead of finding starters IMO. Which means, Grier THINKS the Phins OLine is SET AT STARTERS!

As I said, I am afeared!

But we shall see...

Well, they've already brought in competition at LG with Dan Feeney. Whether or not you like Feeney, he is an experienced lineman who has played extensively in a very similar offensive system for hi entire career. He has 64 career starts, most of them at LG. Keep in mind also that the starting LG was Liam Eichenberg in 6 of the Dolphins' 9 wins this past season.

I also think we'll draft a RT at some point.

It's also important to remember that we do have other OL options on the roster that could conceivably compete for starting jobs at LG and RT: Lester Cotton, Kendall Lamm, Geron Christian, Robert Jones and Kion Smith. There are also plenty of cheap free agents still available, including Isaiah Wynn, Matt Feiler, George Fant, Cam Fleming, Dalton Risner, Cam Erving, Trai Turner, Brandon Shell, and many more.

I'm not worried about the OL. The coaches will figure it out and get the best 5 guys in there.

finfanatic wrote:After some due consideration, I have come up with three possible rationales: Take your pick...

ONE - Grier is an idjit when it comes to the Oline. His draft picks stink, and his free agent signings haven't worked out all that great until recently Williams and Armstead seem to, so... If the Phins had a 1st round pick this season, we would probably be able to tell more, but...

This is the one I'm going with. Especially since Grier has been with the scouting department in some form or fashion since 2000, and the O-line draft picks have largely sucked since then. It's not *just* him, but whatever part of the scouting department is in charge of evaluating O-line talent has clearly been awful, and it's just as clear that Grier simply takes whoever they recommend at face value--even though he of all people should know better having worked as a scout for years while bad O-line picks and FA signings were being made!

JMP wrote:Well, they've already brought in competition at LG with Dan Feeney.  Whether or not you like Feeney, he is an experienced lineman who has played extensively in a very similar offensive system for hi entire career. He has 64 career starts, most of them at LG.

I'd honestly forgotten all about him! But given the past 25 years or so, it's hard for me to believe he'll be above mediocre at best.

I'm not worried about the OL.  The coaches will figure it out and get the best 5 guys in there.

You mean, the way they've figured it out since 1995? And the "best 5 guys" doesn't mean much when literally almost none of them are above average that entire time!

DF316 wrote:You mean, the way they've figured it out since 1995? scratch And the "best 5 guys" doesn't mean much when literally almost none of them are above average that entire time!

I think the point is, the starters are not THAT MUCH Better than the backups, but when the starters are all JAGs (just another guy), having a room full of JAGs is not a recipe for success.

I have been saying it for years and as DF316 points out, the Phins just keep doing the same old thing and getting the same results: BAD OLINES!

Just the sheer number of picks invested in the Oline should have produced more than one decent Olineman in recent history (Hunt).

There is either:
A) something seriously wrong with the way the Phins scout the Oline, evaluate the talent, and project a players skills to the NFL
B) incredibly poor draft and free agent personnel decisions being made

As an example...Last year, OT Zach Tom was there, but the Phins had Jackson and Eichenberg. So they went for Tindall and EZ, neither of who could get much playing time.

What I am afraid of is the same mistake(s) are being made again this year. As noted, it seems to be a pattern for the Phins.

Another season where the OLine is the downfall of the team, where the Oline gets Tua concussed a few more times, and MAYBE somebody will notice the pattern and hopefully take steps to fix it!

We shall see...

DolFan 316 wrote:

You mean, the way they've figured it out since 1995? And the "best 5 guys" doesn't mean much when literally almost none of them are above average that entire time!

1995-2021 has nothing to do with this year's OL.

In 2022, we fielded a top 10 offense - and that's with an OL that had to rely on backups (sometimes 3rd, 4th and even 5th stringers) at 3 positions for a good portion of the season. Tua led the entire NFL in about a dozen passing categories, and our 2 top backs averaged almost 5 yards a carry over the season.

These facts indicate that the OL wasn't nearly as bad as the current narrative wants to make it seem - or (which amounts to the same thing) the scheme was strong enough to overcome the OL injuries. With improved health and some new blood (both coaching and players), I expect improvement.

The reason the Dolphins did not go further in 2022 isn't because of the OL - it's because the starting QB missed the end of the season and we had to go with a 3rd string QB that wasn't ready to play (a 7th round rookie project). And, of course, a defensive coordinator that continually paired constant blitzing with off-man zone coverage. And even with all that, we advance to the second round of the playoffs if Waddle doesn't forget how to catch against the Bills.

I have been scoping out a couple of new (to me) mock draft simulators. The range in rankings is amazing. A guy who is a third or fourth on PFN is a low 7th on this one.

[url=nflmockdraftsim] https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/mock-draft-simulator [/url]

The only thing I do not like is they do not record 2024 picks you traded down for.

I did this mock and got these results:
55 Trenton Simpson LB | Clemson A
96 Tyjae Spears RB | Tulane A+
152 Zack Kuntz TE | Old Dominion A+
194 Jalen Redmond DL | Oklahoma A
197 Jaxson Kirkland OT | Washington A
238 Viliami Fehoko EDGE | San Jose State A+

Plus a 3rd, 4th and 6th in 2024 IIRC?

Simpson is made for a Fangio defense IMO. He has the speed and instincts to cover the whole field from side to side.

Spears... I think he might be very good in the NFL, but... who knows?

Kuntz - Has the size to be a good blocker and would be a great redzone threat.

Redmond - A bit smaller but has an incredible motor.

Kirkland can play OG or OT. A very good solid Olineman for years to come.

Fehoko - I was looking for a LB, CB, or S, but Fehoko has an immense upside. A bit rough, but he has the moves to develop.

JMP wrote:The reason the Dolphins did not go further in 2022 isn't because of the OL - it's because the starting QB missed the end of the season and we had to go with a 3rd string QB that wasn't ready to play (a 7th round rookie project). And, of course, a defensive coordinator that continually paired constant blitzing with off-man zone coverage. scratch And even with all that, we advance to the second round of the playoffs if Waddle doesn't forget how to catch against the Bills.

All of what you say is true, JMP.

BUT... are you really trying to say the poor Oline play was not a contributing factor in Tua getting knocked out?

I would say that was the MAIN CONTRIBUTING FACTOR.

The starters were not where they should be and the backups were JAGS... just like (most of) the starters.

The fact the Phins offense did what it did behind the bad Oline is amazing, but that doesn't mean the main weakness on the team should be strengthened with better backups IMO.

The priority of the team should be KEEPING TUA in a non-concussed state. I am not sure signing backups and hoping Eichenberg and Jackson are going to remain injury free is what I would consider addressing the main priority?

There is still time to fix this, but as I was saying earlier, my fear is Grier doesn't see the need to fix it. And as you pointed out, he may see the results from last season's offense as confirmation that what he is doing is working. Which brings us back to my fear.

It would really be nice to see what Tua could do with a full un-injured season AND a potent running game. I think the Oline needs to be improved for either of those things to occur though.

finfanatic wrote:I have been scoping out a couple of new (to me) mock draft simulators. The range in rankings is amazing. A guy who is a third or fourth on PFN is a low 7th on this one.

[url=nflmockdraftsim]  https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/mock-draft-simulator  [/url]

The only thing I do not like is they do not record 2024 picks you traded down for.

I did this mock and got these results:
55 Trenton Simpson LB | Clemson A
96 Tyjae Spears RB | Tulane A+
152 Zack Kuntz TE | Old Dominion A+
194 Jalen Redmond DL | Oklahoma A
197 Jaxson Kirkland OT | Washington A
238 Viliami Fehoko EDGE | San Jose State A+

Plus a 3rd, 4th and 6th in 2024 IIRC?

Simpson is made for a Fangio defense IMO. He has the speed and instincts to cover the whole field from side to side.

Spears... I think he might be very good in the NFL, but... who knows?

Kuntz - Has the size to be a good blocker and would be a great redzone threat.

Redmond - A bit smaller but has an incredible motor.

Kirkland can play OG or OT. A very good solid Olineman for years to come.

Fehoko - I was looking for a LB, CB, or S, but Fehoko has an immense upside. A bit rough, but he has the moves to develop.

That would be a home run draft!

finfanatic wrote:

All of what you say is true, JMP.

BUT... are you really trying to say the poor Oline play was not a contributing factor in Tua getting knocked out?

I would say that was the MAIN CONTRIBUTING FACTOR.

The starters were not where they should be and the backups were JAGS... just like (most of) the starters.

The fact the Phins offense did what it did behind the bad Oline is amazing, but that doesn't mean the main weakness on the team should be strengthened with better backups IMO.

The priority of the team should be KEEPING TUA in a non-concussed state. I am not sure signing backups and hoping Eichenberg and Jackson are going to remain injury free is what I would consider addressing the main priority?

There is still time to fix this, but as I was saying earlier, my fear is Grier doesn't see the need to fix it. And as you pointed out, he may see the results from last season's offense as confirmation that what he is doing is working. Which brings us back to my fear.

It would really be nice to see what Tua could do with a full un-injured season AND a potent running game. I think the Oline needs to be improved for either of those things to occur though.

I do not believe the OL was responsible for the 2 Tua concussions. The first was a case of Tua holding the ball too long and taking a vicious hit that should have been penalized. The second was a simple knockdown that happens to every QB in every game.

Do we need better OL play? Of course - just like every other team in the NFL. And I think the line will be improved with better coaching, healthier players and improved depth/competition.

Grier and McDaniel have worked to improve the OL this offseason - and they will continue to do so as the offseason continues. It may not be the way we would do it, but it's happening.

Just a reminder of how things stand roster-wise going into the draft.

https://www.thephinsider.com/2023/4/12/23680305/nfl-draft-2023-miami-dolphins-needs-roster-depth-chart-tua-tagovailoa-tyreek-hill-offensive-line

Okay, I had to share this one because it's hilarious IMO. From the PFN sim.

When pick 51 came around the Raiders offered to trade me picks 70 and 100...for 51 and Iggy. No, seriously, this was a thing that happened. I *had* to take it, just to get SOMETHING for that bum. The really funny part is, the Raiders then used that pick to take CB Emmanuel Forbes

ANYWAY...at 70 I took OT Cody Mauch--because he was ranked #58 on the big board and I just couldn't pass that kind of value up. I did get an offer from the Chiefs to trade all the way down to 95 in exchange for their 3rd next year and LB Willie Gay Jr. but that was just too far down for me to pull the trigger. The Lions offered a trade down "only" to 81 as well as RB DeAndre Swift   Would you guys have taken either of those deals with Mauch still on the board?

At 84 I took LB Ivan Pace, who I was hoping would still be there.

At 100 I selected TE Zack Kuntz who was #103 on the big board so waiting for him was a real gamble.

At 197 I took QB Jake Haener over Max Duggan who was rated one spot higher I believe. Clayton Tune was already gone for those who might want to know.

And finally at 238 I got DE Karl Brooks.

EDIT: If Darnell Washington is there at 51 I absolutely take him, and if that's the case IRL Grier needs to sprint to hand that card in. Unfortunately I haven't done a PFN mock where he falls that far yet

Second attempt left me with just 3 picks, but I did come away with the Packers' 2nd next year.

Traded down from 51 to 78 with the Pack, also giving up pick 238 and getting that 2nd.

78: TE Sam LaPorta.

84: Pace again.

197: G Nick Broeker

DolFan 316 wrote:

ANYWAY...at 70 I took OT Cody Mauch--because he was ranked #58 on the big board and I just couldn't pass that kind of value up. I did get an offer from the Chiefs to trade all the way down to 95 in exchange for their 3rd next year and LB Willie Gay Jr. but that was just too far down for me to pull the trigger. The Lions offered a trade down "only" to 81 as well as RB DeAndre Swift   Would you guys have taken either of those deals with Mauch still on the board?

Interesting stuff.

Mauch can play all 5 OL positions, but to me he looks like a guard. Watching his work this offseason and in game clips, he is athletic but seems to work better in small spaces and he does have short arms. Excellent value at 70, and IMO he'd slide in immediately as a starter at LG for the Dolphins and will likely be a very good player for a long time.

Considering that, I would not make the trade for Willie Gay and a 3rd next year. I would love to get that 3rd, but Gay to me isn't a great fit for the Phins. He's an OLB, and we're already well-stocked there. I'd rather have a starting-caliber OL.

Now, DeAndre Swift would be an intriguing trade. Considering his draft status, he hasn't been very productive as a runner, but he is a solid runner and is an excellent receiver. I'd be tempted, but in the end I think I'd just take Mauch and make the OL better.

Okay, here's a mind-blowingly insane trade I was offered--Noah Fant by the Seahawks just to trade up ONE SPOT from 52 to 51, and all I had to throw in was pick 197

If that trade happened IRL I might faint for real.

DolFan 316 wrote:Okay, here's a mind-blowingly insane trade I was offered--Noah Fant by the Seahawks just to trade up ONE SPOT from 52 to 51, and all I had to throw in was pick 197

If that trade happened IRL I might faint for real.

I've never been a fan of Noah Fant, so I'd probably pass on that trade. But that would be a wild deal!

Yeah, PFN has added players to the trades now. Some of the players that they think are available for trade are kinda surprising, like Swift. I thought the Lions loved him? But then they let Williams go too, so...

hmm, i'll throw this here a something "draft related"

a quick write up on who is Lance Zierlein with some specific Dolphin mentions.

Confident in his ability to rate offensive linemen, Zierlein had concerns about USC’s Austin Jackson. But he was high on Louisiana-Lafayette’s Rob Hunt. Thus far, he was right on both players, who became high Dolphins draft picks. When Dolphins general manager Chris Grier made his landmark 2019 trade to send left tackle Laremy Tunsil to Houston for a trove of draft picks, Zierlein said the Texans were playing checkers while Grier was playing chess.

“Giving up first-rounders for a guy who doesn’t score touchdowns or prevent touchdowns was not smart,” Zierlein says. Here, too, history sides with Zierlein.

but what did Grier do with those picks...did he get guys who score or prevent scores?

and for the record, i had the same relative evaluations of Jackson and Hunt then - and still do today.

mercury22nathan wrote:hmm, i'll throw this here a something "draft related"

a quick write up on who is Lance Zierlein with some specific Dolphin mentions.

Confident in his ability to rate offensive linemen, Zierlein had concerns about USC’s Austin Jackson. But he was high on Louisiana-Lafayette’s Rob Hunt. Thus far, he was right on both players, who became high Dolphins draft picks. When Dolphins general manager Chris Grier made his landmark 2019 trade to send left tackle Laremy Tunsil to Houston for a trove of draft picks, Zierlein said the Texans were playing checkers while Grier was playing chess.

“Giving up first-rounders for a guy who doesn’t score touchdowns or prevent touchdowns was not smart,” Zierlein says. Here, too, history sides with Zierlein.

but what did Grier do with those picks...did he get guys who score or prevent scores?

and for the record, i had the same relative evaluations of Jackson and Hunt then - and still do today.

SO...speaking of your O-line evaluations...what do you think of this year's crop, eh?

JMP wrote:--TE Darnell Washington - this is 100% the type of TE we need - and there's no one else like him in this class.

well, would look at that. Mike Tannenbaum and JMP disagree. who wouda thunk it?!?!

The 33rd Team — a think tank that was created by former Dolphins executive Mike Tannenbaum and others — uses three former NFL scouts and former Eagles personnel executive T.J. McCreight to make their predraft evaluations.

And those four surprisingly warn against using a second-day pick on Georgia’s Washington.

The 33rd Team’s group of scouts said: “Washington is productive in the run game, but he does not play with the explosiveness his testing numbers would suggest. His 4.08 20-yard shuttle was impressive for someone his size, but Combine numbers don’t always translate to the field. Additionally, Washington is not a natural pass catcher and sometimes will ‘fight’ the ball. He had just 45 catches in his college career at Georgia.”

The 33rd Team said he should go in the range of 105, not the mid-second-round range where he’s projected.

https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/barry-jackson/article274300375.html

If Mike Tannenbaum doesn't like Washington, that's even more of a sign that the TE will be a star. I hear Tannenbaum on sports radio here in NY quite a bit, and he is probably the least informed "analyst" I've ever heard. He's completely clueless.

Remember last year when he said that Bridegwater would steal Tua's job after the first few games? Yeah, that's Tannenbaum's "genius".

Tannenbaum and Jim Cramer should team up for a sports/finance hybrid show. It would be the most reliable "do the opposite" program ever created.

Ok, my "one week to go" attempts:

PFF:
51. Julius Brents, CB
84. Wanya Morris, OT

no TE unfortunately, but I couldn't pass up Brents there and Morris was the best OT at 84 left (could have gone Bergeron/Phillips as an alternative BTW)

PFN:
Chargers offer 54 and 125 to move down from 51.

54. Darnell Washington, TE
84. Matthew Bergeron, OT
125. Kendre Miller, RB
197. Juice Scruggs, C
235. Karl Brooks, DL

HalCHorn wrote:
51. Julius Brents, CB

I can already see Fangio laughing maniacally if this happens.