PFF mock draft simulator is up + all things Draft related

PFF is trying to CHARGE me for using the draft sim, so I went back to the PFN mock sim...

Trading down but still trying to stay in range of players I wanted...
Missed out on Jalen Duncan, so I grabbed Freeland first...

69. Blake Freeland OT B - Probably needs one year of NFL Strength training and one year of Oline technique coaching, but he is fairly nimble for someone this big.

108. Sam LaPorta TE Iowa - I don't know if he will be Kittle 2.0 but he might come close IMO.

166. Nick Broeker OG Ole Miss - I think he may develop into a phenomenal Guard. Has played LT in college and with some development the Phins might have their LG spot settled for years to come.

168. DeMarcco Hellams S Alabama -I was gonna go for a LB but did not like anybody worth this pick so I grabbed the safety. He did not perform well in zone coverage, but he is a great run stopper support at Safety.

178. Deneric Prince RB Tulsa - A speedy RB who can be used as a change of pace back.

197. Karl Brooks DT Bowling Green - A rotational Developmental DT. This guy has a high ceiling. It was either him of Devonsha Maxwell from Chattanooga.

But here is what I was after and although I kept pushing for a 3rd rounder in 2024... Nobody was buying.  I am sure you could package some of these lower round picks and move up if needed....

2024 LAC 4th
2024 LAR 4th
2024 MIA 4th
2024 ARI 5th

I am starting to feel this may be the best strategy for the Phins...trade down and get more picks this year and next...unless...and this is a BIG UNLESS...

Unless...   Somebody very highly ranked falls to #51.   I did manage to get Beast of a Guard O'Cyress Torrence ONCE with #51.  And Superfreak OLB Nolan Smith a time or two. Gronk-like TE Michael Mayer once. And one time RB Bijan Robinson was sitting there at #51!!!

Who are the players that you would consider HAVE TO DRAFTS if they are available at #51?

Yeah, too bad about PFF, I liked their simulator best.

Great draft, I would LOVE to see Grier get Freeland and LaPorta while adding 3 4th rounders.

I gave PFN a spin:

Cleveland gave me 74 and a 2024 3rd rounder to move down from 51. Original offer was 74 and 98, I asked for the 2024 3rd instead.

At 74, Cody Mauch was still there so I took him instead of another trade.

Tucker Kraft was still available at 84 so I took him instead of trading.

At 197 CB Nic Jones of Ball State, who can also return kicks.

Finished up with LB Anfernee Orjl of Vanderbilt.

So recouped a 3rd next year and filled the two biggest needs, and got a fallback option at both DB and KR/PR.

finfanatic wrote:PFF is trying to CHARGE me for using the draft sim, so I went back to the PFN mock sim...

Trading down but still trying to stay in range of players I wanted...
Missed out on Jalen Duncan, so I grabbed Freeland first...

69. Blake Freeland OT B - Probably needs one year of NFL Strength training and one year of Oline technique coaching, but he is fairly nimble for someone this big.

108. Sam LaPorta TE Iowa - I don't know if he will be Kittle 2.0 but he might come close IMO.

166. Nick Broeker OG Ole Miss - I think he may develop into a phenomenal Guard. Has played LT in college and with some development the Phins might have their LG spot settled for years to come.

168. DeMarcco Hellams S Alabama -I was gonna go for a LB but did not like anybody worth this pick so I grabbed the safety. He did not perform well in zone coverage, but he is a great run stopper support at Safety.

178. Deneric Prince RB Tulsa - A speedy RB who can be used as a change of pace back.

197. Karl Brooks DT Bowling Green - A rotational Developmental DT. This guy has a high ceiling. It was either him of Devonsha Maxwell from Chattanooga.

But here is what I was after and although I kept pushing for a 3rd rounder in 2024... Nobody was buying.  I am sure you could package some of these lower round picks and move up if needed....

2024 LAC 4th
2024 LAR 4th
2024 MIA 4th
2024 ARI 5th

I am starting to feel this may be the best strategy for the Phins...trade down and get more picks this year and next...unless...and this is a BIG UNLESS...

Unless...   Somebody very highly ranked falls to #51.   I did manage to get Beast of a Guard O'Cyress Torrence ONCE with #51.  And Superfreak OLB Nolan Smith a time or two. Gronk-like TE Michael Mayer once. And one time RB Bijan Robinson was sitting there at #51!!!

Who are the players that you would consider HAVE TO DRAFTS if they are available at #51?

I go back and forth on Freeland.  He is 100% exactly what the Phins want in terms of athleticism on the offensive line.  But the lack of strength and trouble with power rushers leave me worried.  As a developmental prospect that sits for a year or two, I love him.  But do you draft a guy at 51 (or even 69, in this case) that you know is probably not ready to play?  I'm just not sure.  Either way, I do think he's an ideal fit.

LaPorta is another player I struggle with.  Good receiver and decent blocker, but he's just 6'3" and I look for more height at TE.  I know Kittle is only an inch or so taller, but having a guy that 6'5" or more in the red zone is such a weapon.  STill, at 108 LaPorta is a great value.

I like Deneric Prince - that dude can move!

As to your question - here are my "must drafts" at 51 in the unlikely event that they fall that far:
--RB Bijan Robinson - if he's on the board at 51 (which will NEVER happen) and I'm making the pick, it would be the shortest time on the clock ever...I'd have that pick in so fast, Goodell's head would spin.  
--TE Darnell Washington - this is 100% the type of TE we need - and there's no one else like him in this class.
--RT Darnell Wright - RT position solved in a major way.

I'm sure there are others I'd put up there, but those are my top 3 "dream picks" for the Phins at 51. In fact, if any of those 3 make it to the second round I would seriously consider trying to trade up from 51.

Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel spoke with [TE Brenton] Strange at Penn State’s Pro Day on Friday, and he would fit the Dolphins’ offense. Strange is highly skilled blocker who caught 32 passes for 362 yards and five touchdowns last season.

“In a draft filled with high-quality tight end talent, Strange could fly under the radar as a future starter with the potential to operate as a hybrid, three-down talent,” NFL.com’s Lance Zierlein said.

https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/barry-jackson/article273081765.html#storylink=mainstage_card

and McShay seems to really like Strange.

Brenton Strange. Get to know that name. The Penn State TE is one of the least talked about and most underrated players in the draft. Combine numbers were pedestrian but his tape is impressive. Despite a loaded TE class, you’ll hear his name called Night 2 of the NFL draft.

https://twitter.com/McShay13/status/1640129495083499526?s=20

although i have a bone to pick with Barry Jackson of the Heralds assessment of the Dolphin's intent towards the TE position.

Remember, the Dolphins don’t target the tight end enough in the passing game to justify giving big money to a pricey free agent...

while yes, perhaps they don't want to pay big FA money, but that's because, 1.) they have just so much money under the cap to go around, and 2.) none of the guys currently out there are worth their asking price. i think the idea that McDaniel's offense is not designed to target the TE is crap. i think not targeting the TE had more to do with not having the right system fit TE and less to do about the lack of wanting to utilize a TE (despite having star WRs). once McDaniel get the right TE, i think you'll see them targeted plenty. just my thoughts.

mercury22nathan wrote:

while yes, perhaps they don't want to pay big FA money, but that's because, 1.) they have just so much money under the cap to go around, and 2.) none of the guys currently out there are worth their asking price.  i think the idea that McDaniel's offense is not designed to target the TE is crap.  i think not targeting the TE had more to do with not having the right system fit TE and less to do about the lack of wanting to utilize a TE (despite having star WRs).  once McDaniel get the right TE, i think you'll see them targeted plenty.  just my thoughts.

What I find interesting, looking at last season, is that Sherfield (51) and Gesicki (52) had pretty much the same number of targets.  With both players now gone, that opens up 100+ potential targets.  You have to figure that Waddle and Hill will continue to be target monsters - as they should be - and some combination of Wilson, EZ and Berrios will pick up the slack for Sherfield and eat up some of Gesicki's targets.  I could also see the RBs getting more targets in the passing game.  So that doesn't leave much for the TE position. Saubert, Smythe and a rookie will be fighting for scraps.  

So, bottom line: I don't necessarily see any TE getting a lot of targets in this offense.  A TE may be more strategically targeted - say, third downs and red zone work - but overall I think 50 is probably the high point for a "#1 TE" (if such a thing exists) in the Dolphins offense - and that lessens the need to spend big $ or use a high draft pick at the position.

JMP wrote:I don't necessarily see any TE getting a lot of targets in this offense.

interesting. so you don't envision an offense similar to say SF where Kittle has been targeted 94 and 86 times over the last 2 season and was well over hundred targets in a couple seasons prior? and while i get that Miami's talent at WR may rightfully dictate the overall theme of their scheme, i'm not sure the continued forced feeding of the WRs is gonna work with the same success. if anything, i think the way both the Niners and Chargers limited the Dolphins (and hopefully better pass protection) would ideally lead Miami to explore more over the middle seam options with a TE.

i guess we'll see, but if what you say is right, "that doesn't leave much for the TE position. Saubert, Smythe and a rookie will be fighting for scraps," then perhaps Miami might not even draft a TE above the lower rounds.

I kinda/sorta agree with both of you, JMP and Merc.

One - With Hill and Waddle, they need to be the priority targets. They both have big play ability and when the offense is working correctly, unless the defense sells out to cover them, one of these guys will be open.

TWO - TE is and should be a THREAT in this offense, just like Kittle is in San Fran. I think what we saw last year was a) Gesicki couldn't block a young, puny sissy boy scout, b) Gesicki never met a passing route he couldn't round off or improve upon with improvisational route running. These two reasons made McD not trust Gesicki IMO.

I think once the Phins get the RIGHT TE, we will see the TE's receptions go up.

DRAFT Trade Down UNLESS Picks - I am having a hard time trying to determine who should be at the top of the Trade Down UNLESS list...

Bijan Robinson over Darnell Wright over Darnell Wasington over O'Cyress Torrence Over....

And depending on whose rankings,ratings you use, who might slide gets all cattywampus!!

One thing hat just burns me up STILL is that forfeited 1st round pick. The Phins would be sitting in an ideal situation to get an impact player or trade down for more picks this year and next if the Phins current owner wasn't a stupid, dumbarsed dingleberry!!!  

mercury22nathan wrote:

JMP wrote:I don't necessarily see any TE getting a lot of targets in this offense.

interesting.  so you don't envision an offense similar to say SF where Kittle has been targeted 94 and 86 times over the last 2 season and was well over hundred targets in a couple seasons prior?  and while i get that Miami's talent at WR may rightfully dictate the overall theme of their scheme, i'm not sure the continued forced feeding of the WRs is gonna work with the same success.  if anything, i think the way both the Niners and Chargers limited the Dolphins (and hopefully better pass protection) would ideally lead Miami to explore more over the middle seam options with a TE.

i guess we'll see, but if what you say is right, "that doesn't leave much for the TE position. Saubert, Smythe and a rookie will be fighting for scraps," then perhaps Miami might not even draft a TE above the lower rounds.

Well, Kittle was what...a 5th round pick? And Kittle, along with Travis Kelce of course, are "unicorns". There is literally no other TE in the league that can compare with those two guys and the enormous role they play in their offenses. You can look at second-tier TEs like Andrews and Goedert as well, but the point is - these guys just aren't "normal" TEs, and they are almost impossible to find. Also, there is really no other team in the NFL that can match a 1-2 WR punch of Hill and Waddle.

So, combine those two points (Kittle-like TEs are not available, and the Dolphins have two WRs that dominate targets) and I think you get a Dolphins offense that just isn't going to feature the TE much. I also don't think McDaniel is looking to recreate the 49ers offense - I think he's designing his own offense.

You're right that the Dolphins need to spread the ball around more than they did last season, but I think much of that will come from Berrios/Wilson/EZ and the running backs. I'd also expect more rushing attempts. And if EZ develops, he could become the big-bodied YAC guy over the middle that Gesicki just couldn't be. I also think there's a chance that Saubert ends up catching more passes than Gesicki did under McDaniel.

So, yeah, we'll see how it all plays out - but the more I think about it, the more I believe we will not be looking for a top-end TE. BUT - having said that, I do believe Darnell Washington embodies everything the Phins want in a TE and if he somehow gets to 51, he may be the pick. I'm not saying he'll be Kittle - he won't - but he'll be a monster blocker that can also contribute in the passing game. And I think that's exactly what McD wants - the problem being that so few TEs coming out of college can both block AND catch.

Okay, so I gave PFN a whirl. Only made two picks--OT Jaelyn Duncan at 74 and TE Sam LaPorta at 84, but came away with the Rams' 2nd and 4th rounders for next year. They actually kept offering me future picks but I turned down all the trades after that so I could actually have a draft

DolFan 316 wrote:Okay, so I gave PFN a whirl. Only made two picks--OT Jaelyn Duncan at 74 and TE Sam LaPorta at 84, but came away with the Rams' 2nd and 4th rounders for next year. They actually kept offering me future picks but I turned down all the trades after that so I could actually have a draft

I'd actually love to add more picks in 2024. I think that's going to be a key draft year for the Dolphins in terms of re-loading the roster.

finfanatic wrote:

I think once the Phins get the RIGHT TE, we will see the TE's receptions go up.

DRAFT Trade Down UNLESS Picks - I am having a hard time trying to determine who should be at the top of the Trade Down UNLESS list...

Bijan Robinson over Darnell Wright over Darnell Wasington over O'Cyress Torrence Over....

And depending on whose rankings,ratings you use, who might slide gets all cattywampus!!

One thing hat just burns me up STILL is that forfeited 1st round pick. The Phins would be sitting in an ideal situation to get an impact player or trade down for more picks this year and next if the Phins current owner wasn't a stupid, dumbarsed dingleberry!!!  

I just don't see where all the TE receptions are going to come from. There's only so many passes to go around, and I think we'll be throwing the ball less, ideally anyway, as McD calls more runs. I think 40 receptions is probably the absolute max we can expect from any one TE, and that's even pushing it.

I'm definitely in favor of a trade down unless the players you mention happen to be available!

The lost first round pick is total bullshit, and I don't blame Ross for it. Goodell penalized us for something every team does, and he did it to appease Flores. Flores didn't have a leg to stand on with his ridiculous accusations, but Goodell had to punish the Dolphins for something after that, because, well, let's just say because of the current social/political climate. But yeah, that lost pick still really pisses me off.

JMP wrote:I just don't see where all the TE receptions are going to come from.  There's only so many passes to go around, and I think we'll be throwing the ball less, ideally anyway, as McD calls more runs.  I think 40 receptions is probably the absolute max we can expect from any one TE, and that's even pushing it.

you may be right.  Gesicki and Smythe combined last year only had 72 targets while Waddle had 117 and Hill an astronomical 170.  and even more surprising is that while Smythe caught 75% of his targets, Gesicki only hauled in a paltry 62% of his.  so perhaps its true, that in McDaniels' offense the TE will be little more than a blocker with only 4 or so opportunities per to catch per game.  unless of course one of those "unicorns" of which you speak falls in their laps.  

JMP wrote:The lost first round pick is total bullshit, and I don't blame Ross for it.  Goodell penalized us for something every team does, and he did it to appease Flores.

Jet's owner Woody Johnson has been openly courting and mentioning by name (even prior to gaining GB's permission to meet), Aaron Rodgers - a player under contract to another team - since last season ended and yet no mention of any tampering violation.

Goodell is the worst commish in the sports history. 'Nuff said. Makes even Bowie Kuhn look good.

Flores is a talented coach who lost his job here because he couldn't get along with people on the other side of the ball. You can't act like Belicheat unless you have the skins on the wall. Incidentally Belicheat is now looking a lot like Miami Flores without Brady around; compare 2020-2022 NE (24-25) with 2019-2021 Miami (24-25). Not a lot of difference.

ok, back to mock drafts and the matter at hand. Now doing PFN since PFF is too cheap to let people use the simulator.

51: Jahmyr Gibbs is among the names available, but Indy is offering a # 2 and a # 6 in 2024 to move down to # 79 now. I made several tries to get more from them, couldn't, ended up accepting since I want to re-stock like JMP does.

79. Devon Achane, RB, Texas A&M

Ivan Pace is also there, tough call, but Achane could really add something to this offense.

JAX gives me a 2024 5th to move down from 84 to 88. They asked for our 7th this year and I countered with just the 5th to move down 4 spots. NYG then offered a 4th in 2024 and 89 in exchange for 88 and a 5th next year. I move down one spot now to move up 1 round next year.

So now we're at 89 and have picks in every round except round 3 next year with 2 2nd rounders, two 6th rounders, and 8 picks overall. I feel restocked there now.

AZ offers 96 and 147 to move from 89. I get them to throw in a 7th next year and do it.
Now 9 picks next year.

96 to JAX for 121 and 127.

121. Cameron Latu, TE Alabama

Gamble, but gives us a promising player at a need position.

127. Ricky Stromberg, C, Arkansas

147. Cory Trice, CB, Purdue

197. Payne Durham, TE, Purdue

238. Connor Galvin, OT Baylor

Love it, Hal! Getting two of my favorites - Achane and Durham - makes me happy, as does restocking the 2024 draft cupboard!

JMP wrote:I just don't see where all the TE receptions are going to come from.  There's only so many passes to go around, and I think we'll be throwing the ball less, ideally anyway, as McD calls more runs.  I think 40 receptions is probably the absolute max we can expect from any one TE, and that's even pushing it.

Last season just 22 TEs (none on the same team) managed 40 receptions, which was a surprise to me considering the current pass-heavy emphasis I'm no math whiz, but that means 10 teams had a TE who didn't even manage that many at all.

https://stathead.com/tiny/yivT0

The lost first round pick is total bullshit, and I don't blame Ross for it.  Goodell penalized us for something every team does, and he did it to appease Flores.  Flores didn't have a leg to stand on with his ridiculous accusations, but Goodell had to punish the Dolphins for something after that, because, well, let's just say because of the current social/political climate.  But yeah, that lost pick still really pisses me off.  

Jmp nailed it. This team was (and still is) being punished by the league for...someone filing a completely groundless and baseless lawsuit against it, which even the NFL now knows is absurd. Ross isn't any more stupid for this than he is for the league all but accusing the Fins of shoving Tua on the field after being concussed because they had the unmitigated gall of actually (gasp!) listening to the NFL's own approved doctor who said Tua did NOT have one! Oh, the horror! (And if ANYBODY needs to be suing the NFL it's the doctor who was fired for giving a correct diagnosis that wasn't what people wanted to hear.)

mercury22nathan wrote:Jet's owner Woody Johnson has been openly courting and mentioning by name (even prior to gaining GB's permission to meet), Aaron Rodgers - a player under contract to another team - since last season ended and yet no mention of any tampering violation.

Leave it to Merc to remind me of things even *I* had forgotten and cut right to the point

Speaking of Rodgers, how hypocritical would it be of a player who's publicly spoken out against big pharma willingly jumping to a team owned by...a big pharma billionaire?

HalCHorn wrote:Goodell is the worst commish in the sports history.  'Nuff said.  Makes even Bowie Kuhn look good.

Flores is a talented coach who lost his job here because he couldn't get along with people on the other side of the ball.  You can't act like Belicheat unless you have the skins on the wall.  Incidentally Belicheat is now looking a lot like Miami Flores without Brady around; compare 2020-2022 NE (24-25) with 2019-2021 Miami (24-25).  Not a lot of difference.

And one game worse from 2019-22, don't forget about that

Also, his coaching tree stinks and should be avoided forever. If I'm interviewing a coach and I find out he worked for Belichick for a season or two 20-plus years ago I'm like, "Thanks for coming, we'll call you."

HalCHorn wrote:ok, back to mock drafts and the matter at hand.  Now doing PFN since PFF is too cheap to let people use the simulator.

51: Jahmyr Gibbs is among the names available, but Indy is offering a # 2 and a # 6 in 2024 to move down to # 79 now.  I made several tries to get more from them, couldn't, ended up accepting since I want to re-stock like JMP does.

Every single time I do a mock draft there I get trade offers at 51, and I can never resist a team offering next year's 2nd. IRL I'd move down every time. But not for a 3rd or below.

Ivan Pace is also there, tough call, but Achane could really add something to this offense.

Pace always seems to be there for me after trading down as well. If he fits the system and falls to 84 IRL I say go for it!

DolFan 316 wrote:

Last season just 22 TEs (none on the same team) managed 40 receptions, which was a surprise to me considering the current pass-heavy emphasis   I'm no math whiz, but that means 10 teams had a TE who didn't even manage that many at all.

https://stathead.com/tiny/yivT0

Interesting. I was basing my post solely on Gesicki's stats - 32 catches on 52 targets, and figuring that maybe Saubert or whoever would have a higher catch percentage than Gesicki's fairly-low 61.5% if they had the same number of targets. But yeah, again, I just don't see any TE coming to Miami and becoming a top pass catcher in terms of number of receptions.

Ok, 2 1/2 weeks to go now! Today's attempt:

51: Traded down with CAR. They offered a 2nd and a 6th next year along with 93; I countered asking 93 and 145 this year along with the 2024 2nd and this was accepted.

84. another trade down, with WAS, to get a 4th in 2024 along with # 97. So now two 2nds in 2024 and only missing a 3rd with single picks in every other round.

93. Joe Tippmann, OC, Wisconsin. Interior O-line is a need, particularly someone who can play OC. This does open the possibility of moving Williams back to OG and strengthening two positions (perhaps three if said move might put Hunt back at OT)

Took 114 and 132 from CAR to move down from 97.

114. Israel Abanikanda, RB, Pittsburgh

132. Wayna Morris, OT, Oklahoma

145. Isaiah McGuire, EDGE, Missouri

197. Moro Ojomo, DT, Texas (he's still there, 'nuff said)

238. Karl Brooks, DT, Bowling Green (see last comment)

this has become sort of an annual plea, but its gotta turn around some day, right...it just gotta.

Since Don Shula wisely picked future three-time Pro Bowl guard Keith Sims with the 39th overall pick in the 1990 draft, the Dolphins have selected 17 guards or tackles in the second, third or fourth rounds.

Do you know how many of those 17 turned out to be very good players?

One: Current Dolphins right guard Robert Hunt, a second-round pick in 2020, and the book on his career is far from complete. And even in his case, Hunt has done his best work at guard and didn’t become the solution at tackle that some envisioned (for reasons for which he shouldn’t be blamed).

Three others, among the 17, turned out to be serviceable NFL starters: Todd Wade (started four years here), John Jerry and Billy Turner.

A few others either failed to come close to reaching expectations (Dallas Thomas, Michael Dieter) or have yet to do so (Liam Eichenberg).

The rest of the list is filled with busts – Eddie Blake, Andrew Greene and Brent Smith in the 1990s; Wade Smith, Taylor Whitley, Joe Toledo and Shawn Murphy in the first decade of this century; and Jonathan Martin, Jamil Douglas, Solomon Kindley this past decade.

For three decades, the Dolphins have had less success drafting offensive linemen, after the first round, than any other position except quarterback.

https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/barry-jackson/article274011290.html

Nice try Barry, but I pointed out the same thing a while back. When a team doesn't draft an O-lineman better than one they did 28 years ago (Tim Ruddy), that's a problem. And Ruddy was just decent.

If you go by PFR's Approximate Value, Ruddy in fact STILL has more seasons with an AV of 9 or more than any Fins O-lineman since '94 (Hunt hasn't had one such season yet, although his AV has improved two years in a row so barring injury I can see it happening this time around.) An AV of 7-8 for a season is average, with 9 being slightly above but not exactly Pro Bowl caliber although since Pro Bowl voting's a joke sometimes a player with a AV of 9 will make it anyway like Ruddy did in '00.

https://stathead.com/tiny/WIa7B

DolFan 316 wrote:(Hunt hasn't had one such season yet, although his AV has improved two years in a row so barring injury I can see it happening this time around.)

and i'm still not convinced moving him to RG and refusing to let him man RT (or even compete at it) while happily seemingly shuffling every other o-linemen all over the line was (is) the wisest choice. let's be honest, he's been good/ok at RG, but has he been so significantly better than he would have been at RT - or have any of the other of a plethora of RTs been than much better than he would've been?

mercury22nathan wrote:

DolFan 316 wrote:(Hunt hasn't had one such season yet, although his AV has improved two years in a row so barring injury I can see it happening this time around.)

and i'm still not convinced moving him to RG and refusing to let him man RT (or even compete at it) while happily seemingly shuffling every other o-linemen all over the line was (is) the wisest choice.  let's be honest, he's been good/ok at RG, but has he been so significantly better than he would have been at RT - or have any of the other of a plethora of RTs been than much better than he would've been?

I'm totally with you on that. The cavalier way this team has treated the RT position lately is baffling, befuddling and bewildering to me. It's as if they don't even realize that's Tua's blind side!