Devonta Smith As Good As We Think???

DeVonta Smith has a monster projection that leaves everyone else in this draft class in the dust. Smith's projection is all the more impressive considering that he gets a significant penalty for entering the draft as a senior. Smith is Playmaker's highest projected senior wide receiver ever, and it is not even close. That spot had previously belonged to former Buffalo Bills wide receiver Lee Evans, whose projection was more than 100 yards/season lower than Smith's.

Why is Smith's projection so high? The bottom line is that Smith had eye-popping statistics even though Alabama did not attempt many passes. The Crimson Tide passed only 425 times in 2020, yet Smith managed to record 1,856 receiving yards and 23 touchdowns. Smith scored a touchdown once every 19 times that Alabama attempted a pass. Only two drafted wide receiver prospects since 1996 scored touchdowns at a higher rate than Smith: Randy Moss and Dez Bryant.

However, what makes Smith's numbers arguably more impressive than those of Bryant or Moss is that Smith had to compete with a lot of talented teammates. Moss' most notable receiver colleague was future undrafted free agent Nate Poole; Bryant's was future first-round tight end Brandon Pettigrew, who was considered more of a blocker than a receiver. By contrast, Smith had to compete for targets with fellow first-round prospect Jaylen Waddle. Of course, Waddle played less than half the season due to injury. However, as a junior Smith also had to compete with future first-round picks Jerry Jeudy and Henry Ruggs III, and Smith outproduced them both.

The conventional argument against Smith is that he is unusually light for a top receiver prospect. Smith weighs in at only 170 pounds. There have only been 14 wide receivers drafted since 1998 who were lighter than Smith and none of them were stars. (Marquise Brown, who has 1,353 yards in his first two seasons with the Ravens, has pretty clearly been the best of the lot.) However, it is also true that none of those wide receivers were especially notable prospects, and none dominated top competition like Smith did at Alabama.

Smith is a one-of-a-kind prospect who managed to put up elite numbers despite consistently having to compete with other first-round picks for catches. Any prospect can bust for any number of reasons, but Smith is about as solid as they come.

Kadarius Toney did not have a true position at Florida until his senior year, when he settled in at wide receiver. Toney has some positives. First, he was a versatile player who ran the ball a lot for a wide receiver. Historically, wide receivers who run the ball during college tend to over-perform expectations after joining the NFL. Second, Toney's unusual path to the upper echelon of draft projections makes it impossible to rule out that he may just be that diamond in the rough.

However, Toney also has potential red flags. Unlike Alabama, Florida was never overflowing with elite talent at the wide receiver position—yet Toney was a non-factor for most of his college career. Even when Toney "broke out," his season was not good relative to former first-round picks. Toney recorded 984 receiving yards, but his team threw 473 passes, resulting in 2.08 yards/team attempt. There are only four first-round picks with lower peak numbers: DeVante Parker, Yatil Green, Cordarrelle Patterson, and Travis Taylor. That is not an encouraging list.

Playmaker Score is not a guarantee. However, Toney remains a dangerous prospect because he so closely fits the profile of past wide receiver busts.

white1 wrote:

I just don't see us drafting him unless we trade out of the 6 spot, and I'm not sure that will happen.  

JMP wrote:

white1 wrote:

I just don't see us drafting him unless we trade out of the 6 spot, and I'm not sure that will happen.  

That's funny, I feel exactly the opposite - I think the Dolphins moved up to 6 to ensure that they get Smith.  He almost certainly won't make it passed the Lions at 7 IMO.

Smith is everything the Phins need in a receiver - precise route runner that gets open quickly, excellent hands, ability to separate and get YAC...he's the total package. He's also one of the hardest-working players you'll ever see, and he loves football.  His dedication to improving his craft has become legendary in Alabama: he catches 100 passes from the JUGS machine after every practice, and can often be found catching passes on his off days as well.  This dude just oozes "Flores player" from every pore.  

Prepare for it - Smith is going to be the pick.

finfanatic wrote:Unless Jamar Chase makes it to #6.



And I still say Grier may go for Sewell if he is available.

JMP wrote:

white1 wrote:

I just don't see us drafting him unless we trade out of the 6 spot, and I'm not sure that will happen.  

That's funny, I feel exactly the opposite - I think the Dolphins moved up to 6 to ensure that they get Smith.  He almost certainly won't make it passed the Lions at 7 IMO.

white1 wrote:
Also makes the trade seem like solid thinking.  Smith at 3 is a reach, no need when top 3 picks are going to be QB.  Next 2 picks are all a tossup between another QB, Sewell, Pitts and Chase.  Smith a distant possibility and if he does happen to get selected by ATL or CINCY at 4 or 5 just pushes a different elite talent down the board to us.  It's a win in any scenario, and a great draft slot to sit in.

CarsonChris wrote:I wouldn't pick DeVonta if Tua is the future of the franchise. I think the little zinger about Mac Jones is a red flag. Every time Tua misses a throw Devonta will tell people Mac Jones could make that throw. I think he's a riskier prospect than Parsons.

finfanatic wrote:I think Parsons is a bad dude.  You need some bad dudes on defense, but not to the point where they will get suspended for being dumbarse bad dudes.

As woke as the NFL is trying to be, dumbarse bad dudes get suspended. A lot. And often.

Parsons is a talent though.  I am having a real hard time seeing him as a Flores guy though.