Draft thoughts not worth the virtual paper they're on

This is my early, very early, way too early list of 1st round targets I’m going to look into. Its almost pointless to make this list as so much will change between now and the draft (but with Miami done, I don’t know what else to do). Not to mention every team will have different rankings – there are always 4 or 5 guys that go much higher than anyone thought, and other “surefire” 1st rounders drop to lower rounds. Combine, pro days, individual workouts, team interviews, medical clearance, etc.

There are some guys not on the list because I’m assuming they won’t be around when Miami picks (assuming no significant trade up), but others may be within Miami’s reach if they do move up a few spots. And of course all this assumes Miami will even have its 1st rounder come April. And as always – ALL OF THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE, and will.

QB – the only QB I would even consider if he fell (which he won’t) is Jayden Daniels.
RB, TE, OG/C – Sorry, I’m not even gonna bother as I don’t think the current regime would spend a 1st rounder on any of these positions.
OT – Unlike the above positions, I think they would grab one if they thought he’d be a generational type OT (Fashanu, but he’ll be long gone), but some of the guys available at 21 are going to be good, but this regime has Jackson and mostly likely Armstead for another year and look in lower rounds for OLine help.
WR – Brian Thomas, Jr. (size and speed)
DT – very dependent on Wilkins contract, but maybe, just maybe Kris Jenkins. I know we all want a massive NT type, but I think Jenkins might fit what they want in the position.
DE/OLB pass rusher – will Verse and Trice still be there (wait and see list if they look like they’re falling), I’m thinking maybe no. And what about Latu, will his serious (UWash doctors said the neck was so bad he should never play football again) injury history push him down. Right now, I am intrigued by Chris Braswell.
ILB – I know it’s a need. You know it’s a need. Do the Phins think it is a 1st round need? I’m not convinced.
S – with Holland and Elliott (hopefully fully healthy), I don’t think Miami would even consider it in the high rounds.
CB – There is no denying Cooper DeJean is (was) a playmaker. What does the injury do to his stock? But some are saying he’s a safety and may not have the twitchy speed to be on an NFL island (so I’m putting him on my wait and see list. Nate Wiggins has me intrigued. I’m a little afraid of the Alabama corners and I think the lack of depth at this position may push some of these guys higher than they should go.

So there it is. The order in which my interest is piqued, and I will look into these guys is: Thomas, Wiggins, Braswell, Daniels, Jenkins.

Tell me I’m wrong and why. Give me guys I missed (but don’t give me a guy who is gonna be gone in the top 15 unless you can make a realistic case for him falling).

Great stuff.

I agree with you about OL. There may be value at OT at 21, and that's a strong possibility, but I think a later-round focus is more likely - especially if Lamm is re-signed.

Overall, I honestly feel like WR might be the sweet spot at 21 if you're looking for BPA. Keep an eye on WR Xavier Legette from South Carolina. He was essentially a seldom-used backup for 4 years, but exploded on the scene with an excellent season as a 5th year senior. Potentially sub-4.3 speed at 6'3", 230...yeah, the Phins will be interested. Not a first rounder now, but when he destroys the Combine - watch out. DK Metcalf is a lazy - but possibly accurate - comparison IMO.

I think safety is very much in play - I'm thinking Fangio really, REALLY wants a safety he can trust AND one that can be a ballhawk. Enter Miami Hurricane Kam Kinchens. I think he's going to be a superstar, and he seems like an ideal fit for this defense.

For edge rushers, you figure Latu, Turner and Verse will be long gone at 21. Probably Trice too. But if any of those guys are there, it would be difficult to not take them. Chop Robinson and Brandon Dorlus intrigue me...but not sure they are first rounders.

ILB is a massive need if Baker is let go, as many expect. Not a first rounder, but I'm watching UNC's Cedric Gray: good size, athletic and VERY productive.

At DT, Kris Jenkins is definitely on my radar. As is behemoth T'Vondre Sweat from Texas. He's not a first rounder yet, but if he moves the way I think he will at 360 pounds at the Combine, he's going to be a fast riser.

I really want a CB, but not sure we'll have a great selection at 21. Kamari Lassiter and TJ Tampa are guys I'm keeping an eye on as possible scheme fits. I love Kool-Aid, but he's best suited for man, not zone, IMO.

mercury22nathan wrote:DT – very dependent on Wilkins contract, but maybe, just maybe Kris Jenkins.  I know we all want a massive NT type, but I think Jenkins might fit what they want in the position.

I remember his dad who was massive and expected the son to be the same (shows how much I care about college football) and was...disappointed. He must take after his mom. Just to small for the Fins or any 3-4 team to consider IMO.

DE/OLB pass rusher – will Verse and Trice still be there (wait and see list if they look like they’re falling), I’m thinking maybe no.  And what about Latu, will his serious (UWash doctors said the neck was so bad he should never play football again) injury history push him down.  Right now, I am intrigued by Chris Braswell.

PFN's opinion on Braswell was enough to turn me off. He's essentially a smaller Verse without the athleticism. So no thanks. Naturally, this is who I expect Grier to draft at 21. He already screwed up once with that Charles Harris guy. Remember him? Had no idea about the Latu neck situation (and apparently none of the mock draft simulators do either).

Chris Braswell lacks the high-end flexibility and fluidity to realistically ever be a consistent double--digit sack artist at the next level, but he plays with his pants on fire, and that effort and explosiveness will always find a role at the NFL level. He's added power to his frame and his hands are impressive. He beats college tackles well enough, but without adequate bend, it's hard to imagine him being a quarterback hunter at the next level.

JMP wrote:I really want a CB, but not sure we'll have a great selection at 21. Kamari Lassiter and TJ Tampa are guys I'm keeping an eye on as possible scheme fits.  I love Kool-Aid, but he's best suited for man, not zone, IMO.

Quinyon Mitchell is the only CB Grier could take at 21 and not piss me off. That is all.

Yeah, I totally missed the Latu neck injury history.

(And here's where FF jumps in to predict that Grier will trade up for Latu because of the injury history!)

Actually, in a few mocks I have done, Latu is there at #21.

I think there are a few guys who if they are available, I would have a hard time bypassing:

WR - Thomas and Leggette...I suspect Leggette shows out at the combine and moves up into the 1st round.

EDGE = Chop Robinson has been there a time or two. As has Verse. I doubt Grier would go this way, but...

DT - I like Newton, but I doubt he lasts until #21. Leonard Taylor maybe?

CB - I think it may come down to Lassiter, King, Wiggins, or Mitchell. If Grier stays at #21, this is who he might pick... Lassiter seems designed to fit Fangios scheme IMO.

TE - Occasionally, Bowers drops to #21!!! If Grier were to pass on this DRAFT GIFT, he needs to be poleaxed!!!

As merc says, we just don't know enough right now, and even after free agency and right before the draft, Grier is apt to go off on a tangent because he sets up his draft board based on what he HOPES turns out to be the case instead of what the case actually is... IMHO.

Ok so I broke down and did the discounted monthly PFF just to do their simulator for a couple months (yes I will cancel after a month or two)

Traded 21 to NE for 34, 103 and a 2025 2nd.
Traded 34 to WAS for 36, 100 and a 2025 6th.

36 Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo - IMO steep dropoff at CB after him.

53 Patrick Paul, OT, Houston - lots of offers but this is the OT I was targeting, gotta grab him here.

100 to LV for 112, 150 and a 6th in 2025.

103. McKinnley Jackson, DT, Texas A&M

112 to SF for 131 and a 2025 4th

131. Nelson Caesar, EDGE, Houston

150. Beaux Limmer, OC, Arkansas

158. Tommy Eichenberg, LB, Ohio State

199. Sebastian Castro, CB, Iowa State

242. Anthony Belton, OT, NC State

Filled as many needs as possible, doubled up on  CB and OT, added 4 picks for 2025 including NE's second which should be pretty high.

Let's be realistic about this draft. Grier is going to reach for a second tier pass rusher in the first round. Picking the second leading sack producer on a team while the leading pass rusher is still there. Then he'll trade back ten spots with his second pick, trade up two spots and draft some third rate offensive lineman that wasn't slated to go until the seventh round or FA.  Bigger stronger faster, not with Grier.

HalCHorn wrote:158. Tommy Eichenberg, LB, Ohio State

i know Ohio St has produced some decent LBers, but you don't think 1 Eich on the team is enough? this is indeed Liam's little brother.

and on something completely unrelated...

obviously we all know about Tunsil, but how come nobody told me Michael Deiter was Houston's center.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/D/DeitMi00.htm

he apparently started 10 games in the regular season and both playoff games. i wonder how he has performed...has he played better that Liam Eich (oh, i guess this is related after all)?

I'd say Deiter was OK when I watched the Texans. He's kinda just there...doesn't do anything that stands out. But certainly a serviceable player that the Dolphins could have used.

Good as he is, Tunsil is a false start machine and I still think he's a lazy blocker. Very overrated IMO.

I actually do like Tommy Eichenberg as a prospect, but I think we already have enough Eichs! LOL

I heard one of the talking heads say Tunsil is the best LT in the game.

And he wasn't the only one having a problem with false starts for the Texans. That RT had some too.

finfanatic wrote:I heard one of the talking heads say Tunsil is the best LT in the game.

And he wasn't the only one having a problem with false starts for the Texans. That RT had some too.

Calling Tunsil the best LT in the NFL is lazy. He is a "name" player, both because of the bong mask and because of the mega-trade, and that's why people praise him - because they know him. He might be at the bottom of the top 10, IMO. A good player for sure, but nowhere near the best. And Tunsil has had a bunch of false starts in his career - not just this weekend. He has actually led the Texans in penalties the last two seasons.

All A+ draft, baby!!!

https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/user-mock-drafts/2024/user-mock-2039895

It's also the most ridiculous mock you'll ever see, as Drake Maye fell to me at 21 and was finally taken by the TEXANS of all teams at 23 If it wasn't for every one of my picks getting an A+ I'd have thrown this one out and moved on.

Dallas Turner AND especially Jackson Powers-Johnson? That's an A+ draft without even thinking about the other picks!

I think I'm at the point where any Dolphins draft that doesn't include either Jackson Powers-Johnson or Sedrick VanPran is a fail.

It's still way early, but I am already starting to see some risers in the 1st round, which is pushing some of the top 1st rounders down towards the middle!

Chop Robinson is routinely available at #21 now.  And Verse seems to be dropping down somewhat.

I have had to decide between WRs Keon Coleman and Brian Thomas a time or two also?

DE Jer'Zan Newton seems to be dropping? Is there some rumor or bad news going around about him?

Taliese Fuaga is there sometimes, but I would be shocked if grier went that direction.

Right now, I have been trading down for a couple of extra picks, trying to stay in the first round, picking either Lassiter or Kinchens.

The more I look at how Kyle Hamilton performs for the Ravens D, the more I think getting a Kinchens might be the best move.

Lassiter is starting to look like a great pick for a Fangio defense!

SO...Unless somebody drops.

Still a long way to go and things will most definitely change.

I would love it if the Phins could come out of this draft with a big mean nasty starting OG or Center and either a great pass rusher on the edge or a stout DT who draws double teams because if you don't double him, he will wreak havoc on your offense.

A few drafts I have done net the Phins OC Jackson Powers-Johnson and DT T'Vondre Sweat! That might be the best we can hope for from this draft upon these early looks.

finfanatic wrote:

A few drafts I have done net the Phins OC Jackson Powers-Johnson and DT T'Vondre Sweat! That might be the best we can hope for from this draft upon these early looks.

Sign me up for that right now!

Has anyone played with the Overthecap.com interactive tools?

First time for me. I restructured every high dollar contract. Released a couple guys and created about 34million in cap space. But you can also, negotiate contracts too. Pretty interesting. Im sure with all the information you can find about anything that the assessments would be pretty accurate.

Umix10 wrote:Has anyone played with the Overthecap.com interactive tools?

First time for me.  I restructured every high dollar contract.  Released a couple guys and created about 34million in cap space.  But you can also, negotiate contracts too.  Pretty interesting.  Im sure with all the information you can find about anything that the assessments would be pretty accurate.

That sounds VERY cool!!

Ok latest attempt to get my money's worth out of this PFF sub.

attempting to wheel and deal Grier style this time--to an extent.  I traded 2025 1st and 2nd to IND pre-draft to get # 15, and have 2 first round picks, hoping to address EDGE or CB with an elite option and then trade down from 21 and recoup.  But at 15, there's 5 options I want, Turner, Verse, Arnold, Newton and Latham, and BUF is interested.  So I get BUF 1st and 2nd in 2025 and their 60th pick this year and vacate the spot.  Yeah, I hate trading with them, but I basically just got the 60th pick added to this year's haul without really losing anything next year except positionining in the first two rounds--IF the Bills finish ahead of us again.  If not, I gained position.

21. Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama

And as I suspected one of the 5 players I wanted was still there six spots later.

53. Patrick Paul, OT, Houston

Had to pass on Josh Newton, but I figured CB could be well addressed later better than OT could.

60th now goes to ATL for 74, 145 and ATL 3rd rounder in 2025.  So now we've gone from no pick before the 3rd round next year earlier to 4 in the first 3.  I figured someone would fall to 74 that I want.

74. Zach Frazier, OC, West Virginia

I figured right again!

picked up a 2025 6th moving from 145 to 149 (CIN)

149. Kris Abrams-Draine, CB, Missouri

158. Beaux Limmer, OC/G Arkansas

Played RG in 2022 and C this past year.

186, Trey Taylor, S, Air Force

199. Sebastian Castro, CB, Iowa

I don't except him to be here on draft day, should move up as teams learn a bit more IMO

238. Jared Wiley, TE, TCU

242. Anthony Belton, OT, NC State

Umix - That over the cap place is wild! I have to play with that some. Thanks for the link.

Hal - Nice draft moves. I have looked at trading up but unless it is for a QB, I just do not think it is worth it.

The rankings on players are all over the board still it seems.

Wiley on PFN is a 3rd thru 5th rounder usually, but PFF has him as a 7th rounder???

I am still intrigued by Jaheim Bell. He was used as an H-Back, TE, WR, RB sort when he was at SC. As mostly a TE at FSU, but I think McD could do some of the Deebo things with him if he wanted to?

finfanatic wrote:Umix - That over the cap place is wild!  I have to play with that some. Thanks for the link.

Hal - Nice draft moves. I have looked at trading up but unless it is for a QB, I just do not think it is worth it.

The rankings on players are all over the board still it seems.

Wiley on PFN is a 3rd thru 5th rounder usually, but PFF has him as a 7th rounder???

I am still intrigued by Jaheim Bell. He was used as an H-Back, TE, WR, RB sort when he was at SC. As mostly a TE at FSU, but I think McD could do some of the Deebo things with him if he wanted to?

Bell comes in at 176 at PFF. Yes, ratings all over the place. Wiley is 232. I guess rankings will firm up after the combine.

If I knew or even thought Grier would go edge rusher at 21 and one would be there worth taking then I'd feel a lot differently.

But I've already resigned myself to Grier taking yet another CB or even going WR. (Sighs.)

finfanatic wrote:I am still intrigued by Jaheim Bell. He was used as an H-Back, TE, WR, RB sort when he was at SC. As mostly a TE at FSU, but I think McD could do some of the Deebo things with him if he wanted to?

I get the feeling that's what the Fins wanted Elijah Higgins to be. Remember him? The 6th round pick who nobody could decide if he'd be a WR or a TE? Same size as Bell too.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/H/HiggEl00.htm

The really sad part is, Higgins ended up catching one more TD than all Fins TEs combined this season

DolFan 316 wrote:

But I've already resigned myself to Grier taking yet another CB or even going WR. (Sighs.)

Both positions are very much in play. As of right now, if they stay at 21, I think WR may be the best value...should be some excellent prospects available there.